Comments on: Ethier vs Pierre

By: marcello

marcello — Wed, 06 Aug 2008 18:27:28 +0000

june chun,

Really, because these numbers say the opposite:

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/6550/situational;_ylt=AgM6YSNPZongfq_42QdVVkCFCLcF

They say that, this year, Pierre has almost always batted leadoff and, further, he actually hit better when he wasn’t leading off. They also say that he pretty much only played LF. Not that any of this matters much, but you can’t just say things that are false.

By: june chun

june chun — Tue, 05 Aug 2008 23:39:28 +0000

Why don’t you guys discuss Pierre’s hits and steals. These projections are just that–projections, try going with the facts. Extinuating factors, such as, not batting lead-off, not playing, moved from CF to LF, and injury. You guys are too pessimistic when it comes to Pierre!

By: Ophidian

Ophidian — Tue, 05 Aug 2008 22:14:06 +0000

I would guess that the best non-Furcal Leadoff hitter that the Dodgers have is actually Russell Martin, but I doubt the Dodgers Brain-trust is creative or daring enough to go with that.

By: Scappy

Scappy — Tue, 05 Aug 2008 20:19:28 +0000

Pierre is definitely NOT a lead off hitter. He may have received most of his at-bats there, but that does not mean he is good at it. I am not familiar enough with the dodgers line-up, but I think a good analysis would be to use the expected runs created for a given line-up. In other words if the Torre plays Pierre, he bats lead-off and that amplifies his negative offensive value. I don’t know where Either would be put in the line-up so I really can’t comment on him.

Speed does not make a lead-off hitter. The ultimate objective of a baseball player is to get on base, everything else will follow from there. It is imperative that your lead-off hitter have a high OBP so that they create as few outs as possible.

It would be interesting if a manager just used the line-up tool and trotted out the “best” one according to that for each game. The issue is you would wind up with crazy things, like Manny leading off.

By: fifth of

fifth of — Tue, 05 Aug 2008 19:36:04 +0000

Tango is right about the arms, which have been a major reason Dodger fans don’t like Pierre. I think Dave is also being generous in stating that the Dodgers think the defensive gap is that big. It is exceedingly obvious to anyone following the team that they either do not know how to quantify offensive contribution or completely ignore any such quantification for players they feel they Know something about. The Dodgers have been acting as if the offensive difference is marginal (or, arguably, that Pierre is better), and that is reflected through countless statements from both Torre and Colletti.

By: tangotiger

tangotiger — Tue, 05 Aug 2008 11:40:32 +0000

Don’t forget the gap in arms. Pierre has one of the worst, if not the worst, arms in baseball. That itself costs 5 runs a year.

As for Pierre being a “leadoff” guy, he’s actually a #8 hitter cast as a leadoff hitter.

By: Dave Cameron

Dave Cameron — Tue, 05 Aug 2008 04:06:34 +0000

That’s actually the exact opposite of the truth, dan. I thought there’s been a bit too much made over the decision, and was figuring that this analysis would show that the defense makes up almost all of the difference in offensive value. I was a bit surprised it didn’t.

By: dan

dan — Tue, 05 Aug 2008 01:21:10 +0000

Sounds like you were hoping Ethier would bury Pierre when you did this, but as you were writing it, it turned out to be closer than anticipated.

By: Peter Kreutzer

Peter Kreutzer — Tue, 05 Aug 2008 00:41:13 +0000

Ali is right, the relevant evaluation is how much better a Manny-Pierre-Kemp defense is better than a Manny-Kemp-Ethier. Plus, and I’m not defending this but it does matter, Pierre is a leadoff guy. Ethier isn’t, and this is a team that lacks a leadoff guy with Furcal hurt, if Pierre doesn’t play.

The real problem here is that no matter what configuration there is of the lineup, talent is being wasted.

By: Sky

Sky — Mon, 04 Aug 2008 22:03:12 +0000

You lost me, Dave. You have Ethier 6 runs more valuable over two months, which is about 20 runs over a full season. If Pierre is a center fielder and Ethier is a corner outfielder (why the different position? just for ease of using historical fielding data?) that’s a ten run bonus to Pierre over a full season. That just means he has to be 10 runs better relative to position over a full season, or something like +5 to -5 or +10 to 0. That’s completely reasonable. (No problem docking Pierre for a -5 arm, though, if you like.)