Comments on: Fan Projection Targets – 01/06/10

By: Toffer Peak

Toffer Peak — Fri, 08 Jan 2010 04:39:38 +0000

This has been explained in other comments but basically although the Fans pick most of the underlying components there are some under the hood calculations that use those inputs to extrapolate other stats. That is if the fans predict 600 PAs for a .380 wOBA leadoff hitter on a .345 wOBA team then the calcualttions may spit out a projection of 110 Runs and 80 RBIs.

Same with saves, you select what their role and innings pitched will be; that combined with their projected ERA and overall team quality should give an idea of how many saves they should get.

By: crix

crix — Thu, 07 Jan 2010 01:31:33 +0000

Brandon Webb will mos def be a top starter next year but, Dan Haren surpassed him for the ace of the staff, which could have been even better next season if they didn’t give up Max Scherzer.(bad move for the future) Not to sure about Buckner yet, still a little early to tell.

By: mcrawford620

mcrawford620 — Wed, 06 Jan 2010 22:25:25 +0000

Right now Billy Buckner is projected for 32 starts and 42 games…that’s seems doubtful. In the rotation all year, makes virtually every start, and gets in some bullpen work a couple of times a month?

I know, it’s just a formula quirk. But some of those GS projections seem weird, like projecting Dan Haren for 36 GS.

By: dprat

dprat — Wed, 06 Jan 2010 20:04:41 +0000

Now that Derek has gotten his 15 nanoseconds of fame, my turn. May I respectfully submit that “proven” closers are way under-represented in the players who have crossed the 30 projection barrier. Among those not there yet: Nathan, Broxton, Bell, Marmol, Brian Wilson, Street, Jenks, Hoffman, Lidge, etc etc. Might we target a few of these?

Thanks.

By: Derek

Derek — Wed, 06 Jan 2010 16:52:10 +0000

Cool! Fangraphs shout out. I am honored.

By: LittlePanda

LittlePanda — Wed, 06 Jan 2010 14:47:43 +0000

Also, how come the fan projections include Saves, but I don’t see a place to project them?

By: The Hit Dog

The Hit Dog — Wed, 06 Jan 2010 14:28:29 +0000

Ok just did my civic duty. But I’m confused. How can FG calculate stats like WHIP and LOB% when we don’t have an opportunity to project hits allowed (just BB/9)?