Fan Projection Targets: 12/1/2009
While the Fan Projections have only been available for 1 day, there’s already been well over 4000 ballots cast for batters and 2000 ballots cast for pitchers! These will be open all off-season, so this really is a tremendous start to the project.
Now to continue to keep things lively on the Fan Projection front, we’re going to target 3 or so players each day that we’ll encourage people to project. Then the following day we’ll see if anything interesting happened with those players and give you 3 more players to target.
Today’s targets are: Edwin Jackson, Ricky Nolasco, and Jay Bruce.
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David Appelman is the creator of FanGraphs.
The targets are an excellent idea. I was surprised to see how close my projections for these three players was to the home fans projection. Is it “great minds think alike” or “fools seldom differ”?
You can separate the home fans projections from everybody else’s? How do you do this?
12/1/2009?
We’ve gone back in time! Great Scott!
Great Idea Dave — Now that you’ve done 2 players on my fantasy team, can you finish out the rest of it ;)?
This is awesome.
I wanted to add — the leader boards are awesome too.
Also, by ST assuming every team has 30 for every player, are we going to see a leader board for team wOBA, wRAA, etc.?
yep, I had Nolasco and Bruce on my team too :-)
(I’m assuming those are the 2 you’re talking about)
Just a suggestion, but for example on the page for Nationals fan projections, guys like Zach Segovia (non tender bait) and Mike Hinckley (no longer with the org.) are listed in stead of Drew Storen and Stephen Strasburg, both of whom are almost guaranteed to have more impact on the major league team. Are we only projecting those with previous MLB experience? Maybe an exception should be made for those prospects that are universally expected to contribute to the major league squad in ‘10.
As in, Richmond Flying Squirrel?
I was more on board with the Flatheads.
Should’ve been the Rebels. Damn PC culture.
I was one at a certain local high school. They haven’t claimed that name yet; I fear it is coming though.
Thanks for this great idea, Dave! Selecting targets each day is a great way to get enough projections quickly.
One suggestion: the stolen bases need to be more granular at the bottom, especially. Everyone is projected to get 5, 15, 25 stolen bases because the range is pretty big and everyone is choosing the same option. For example, I think David Ortiz will steal 1-2 bases next year, so I select the second option, and it puts him down for 5. I think 0-2 bases is basically the same thing.
The more I look at Nolasco’s stat line, the more I think that 2008 was really the illusion. Here is some food for thought:
Nolasco DER 2008: .729
Florida DER 2008: .693
Nolasco DER 2009: .683
Florida DER 2009: .685
Nolasco IFFB% 2008: 11.8%
Nolasco IFFB% 2009: 8.1%
Nolasco IFFB% Career: 9.3%
Nolasco wFB/C 2008: .29
Nolasco wFB/C 2009: -1.01
Nolasco wFB/C Career: -.52
This is an awesome addition fellas.
One thought: the three projections are very similar to James’s so far, and I wonder if that’s due to all of us looking at the player pages while filling these out and consciously or unconsciously leaning toward James. Is there a way to hide the James projections for the three players each day?
The Bruce and Jackson fan projections differ quite a bit from the James projections. The fact that Bruce and Jackson once played a no-nukes concert together, while James was nowhere to be found, undoubtedly plays a part.
Excellent idea with the targets.
Question, even though it doesn’t relate to any of these three players: When projecting catchers, should we choose 0 for their UZR as opposed to to just leaving it under the “Select” option, or does it not matter?
I think one of the writers said you may put in your own catcher defense ratings if you want. For example I rated Laird as an 11 to 15 UZR catcher for his cannon arm. It would have been 16 to 20 but the Tigers have talked about playing Alex Avila more at catcher to develop him as well as keep Laird fresh and so he can give more with his bat.
This is a great idea. I find myself much more willing to go out and vote for other teams than my own when I just have to do a few preselected ones a day.