Fantasy Football for the Saber Set
If FanGraphs has a football-oriented kindred spirit around this great and wild series of tubes called the internet, it’s almost definitely Brian Burke’s Advanced NFL Stats. Just as we strive to do here, Burke makes it his bidness to ask the smartest questions he can think of and (generally) uses quantitative analysis to answer them. Also, as we do here, Burke carries a number of stats that you’re not gonna find elsewhere.
Finally, as with FanGraphs, green is integral to his site’s color palette. So, yeah.
So it was that, when FanGraphs’ own Zach Sanders assembled a cast of sabermetric types via a simple Twitter message (pictured below) I wrote to Mr. Burke and asked what might be a way to construct a league so’s to remove — as much as is possible — the effects of team context and randomness (i.e. practices common in the quantitative analysis of baseball).
Because he’s a kind person and sympathetic those less fortunate than him, Burke responded quickly. You can read the entirety of his reply (and more!) over at his site, but if you’re the sort to look for the bottom line, here’s a fair summary: turnovers, special teams, and touchdowns are the most random things in the NFL; stick with yardage as much as possible.
In any case, I assume at least some of our readers participate in fantasy football, and that some of those people have as yet to participate in the last of their NFL fantasy drafts.
That being the case, I’ve reproduced below the scoring system we’ll be using in what Sanders has subbed the This Ain’t Baseball League. Essentially, it’s a hybrid of the more traditional fantasy scoring with which you’re already likely familiar and then the yard-heavy approach endorsed by Burke.
The positions we’re using are as follows: QB, WR, WR, WR, RB, RB, TE, W/R/T, W/R/T, DEF, BN, BN, BN, BN, BN, BN.
The draft was last Thursday, and I believe you’ll be able to view the results of said draft — plus other league information — by clicking here. [Update: Nevermind. Apparently, that doesn't work. Yeesh.]
Now, for the scoring (including the Yahoo default settings for the sake of comparison):
Those are the offensive ones. Here are the defensive:
0
I’d really like to see the rosters, but, alas, not in your league (that’s what she said?). Cool idea, Carson/Zach, was excited when your question popped up on Advanced NFL Stats.
My team, for what it’s worth:
An Uncreative Name:
QB: Matt Schaub, Vince Young
RB: Maurice Jones-Drew, LeSean McCoy, Arian Foster, Laurence Maroney, Mike Bell
WR: Terrell Owens, Devin Aromashodu, Jerricho Cotchery, Anthony Gonzalez, Joshua Cribbs, Danny Amendola
TE: Vernon Davis, Anthony Fasano
DEF: Chicago
I was under prepared, but I suppose I could be in worse shape. I’m very weak at WR. but hoping to land a couple pop-up guys that will assuredly arise during the year.
probably went to early on VD, given how deep the TE position is.
I probably did. I like Zach’s team more than mine as well. I’m just hoping mine is good enough to have a decent showing in the league.
My (Title Winning) Team:
QB: Romo, Hasselbeck
RB: Chris Johnson, Fred Jackson, Darren Sproles, Leon Washington
WR: Jennings, Maclin, Garcon, Houshmanzadeh, Gaffney, Dexter McCluster (RB eligible)
TE: Boss, Jermaine Gresham
DEF: CIN, NE
decent squad given how deep the league is, I like it better than jar75.
I think these ratings are more than a bit off in some cases, and that Football Outsiders still offers the best sabermetric football analysis. When considering fantasy, you must still take the context of the team into play to a much larger degree than in other sports. For example, Calvin Johnson may be the best WR independent of his team, but if Matt Stafford is still a bad QB Johnson won’t be a great fantasy asset. I also don’t know about Steven Jackson being the second worst RB last year.
What are you responding to? (Sorry if I’m an idiot and missed something)
Click on the link and read the ratings. Nothing I was saying was directed at you.
Oh, I wasn’t trying to be defensive, sorry. I just didn’t see the Advanced NFL Stats ratings (I didn’t go to the main page, had just read the article responding to Carson previously). Should’ve realized what you were talking about, given the subject, but… yeah, no excuse. Apologies.
I wish I played in leagues where TDs were worth that little because like you said yards are a better measure of how good a particular player is(especially for WRs and RBs). There’s nothing more frustrating than watching your RB rush for 50 or 60 yards on the drive only for some 3rd down back or FB to punch it in from a couple yards. Your RB did all the work yet he is outscored by the FB that ran for all of 2 yards? Doesn’t make much sense.
“yards are a better measure of how good a particular player ”
Except for QBs, where yards are simply a measure of how long your team was behind for. Or RBs, where yards are simply a measure of how long your team was ahead.
Which is all in addition to the fact that all players value is inherently tied to their teammates, particularly their offensive line, in addition to their coaching staffs.
Football is not baseball; it’s considerably more difficult to be isolate individual player performance. Steven Jackson is almost certainly a more talented back than Ray Rice, but no matter which counting stats you used Ray Rice will produce more fantasy points than Jackson this year, because his offensive line is better and his team will be leading more often, leading to more rushing attempts.
Similarly, Phil Rivers is unquestionably a more talented passer than Matt Schaub, but Schaub threw the ball more and had a better fantasy season last year.
Fantasy Football as it stands can still be fun and people who really understand football can still have an advantage, but there’s no quick fix comparable to eliminating pitcher wins or RBIs. I don’t see anything wrong with the format presented, but I don’t think it’s any better either.
My Team:
QB: Romo, Rapelisberger
RB: DeAngelo Williams, Ryan Grant, Jonathan Stewart, Arian Foster
WR: Andre Johnson, Malcolm Floyd, Hakeem Nicks, Robert Meachem
TE: Kellen Winslow, Heath Miller
K: Matt Prater
DEF: Pittsburgh
also, since everybody else is doing it, my keeper league team
QB: Rivers
RB: Rice, Mendenhall, Stewart, Best
WR: Fitzgerald, Wayne, Crabtree, Maclin, Houshmandzadeh, Robinson
TE: Zach Miller
K: Prater, I think
DEF: Baltimore
Schaub is a better QB then Rivers and if you can’t see the fact that he threw it more times, and also completed more of those attempts (67.9%>65.4%) then your statement is as hopeless as saying that Steven Jackson is better than Ray Rice.
You want to remove luck? Have an auction draft.
This is a really cool idea, and I like how you incorporated Zach’s suggestions without completely changing the overall balance of the game. I’d be interested in seeing how the changes affect the average scores by position. As in, whereas before a QB accounted for x% of a team’s average weekly score, under the new system, he’d account for y% on average.
I’m a Fantasy Football failure (last place team last year vs. first place in baseball this year), so sorry if this question is ill informed:
Why is a touchdown by the Defense worth so much less than a touchdown by the Offense in your league?
Both involve a good deal of luck, being in the right place at the right time, but more often than not the defense will have to run 30+ yards in the other direction to convert an interception to a TD. Staying up for 30+ yards involves a lot of non-random skill even if it is against the other team’s offense.
Think about the scenario where the defense gets an interception and runs it back 30 yards for a touchdown, they would get 2 points (one for interception, one for TD), versus if the offense ran 30 yeards for a touchdown they would get 6 points (1 per 10 yards and 3 for TD).
I would give 3 points for all TDs no matter what side make them.
I just realized that the scenario above would give 8 points to the offense (1 per 6 yards and 3 for TD) and 2 points to the defense. TDs by special teams and defense often involve a lot of rushing skill that is not getting factored into the TD points.
Well I’d wager that a larger percentage of turnovers become touchdowns compared to the percentage of offensive plays that result in scores. Just spitballin here.
Here’s my thing. In a snake draft teams 1,2, and either 10 or 12 (if 10 or 12 team league) have had much higher success rates in drafts than other positions (in the past on average), therefore it is “lucky” for an owner to draw one of those slots in the draft lottery. An auction drafts solves this. You get what you are willing to pay for.
However, I don’t quite buy anything about TD’s being more or less lucky. You know damn well going into the draft that Tim Hightower might take away opportunities from beanie wells to score td’s and therefore have to discount beanie wells a little bit because of that.
I think the real dilemma is this constant need for people to relate “real” football stats with “fantasy” scoring. Each owner in a given league plays by the same set of rules and pretty much has the same amount of information. Brian talks about a yard in 3rd and 1 being worth more than a yard on 2nd and 9. In real life yes, but fantasy no. It doesn’t matter what down the yardage or TD is earned as long as they are accumulated. Each fantasy owner needs to approach a draft with who is going to give you the best opportunity to accumulate fantasy points given the frame work of your league.
“He wanted to know how someone would set up a fantasy football league using commonly available scoring options that would remove most of the luck and leave mostly the results of skill.”
Why don’t you guys take it another way, play a TD only league and see who wins? Compare the results to your random-less league.
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