Comments on: Fastball Losses

By: hateraid

hateraid — Wed, 10 Feb 2010 08:48:02 +0000

I’d bet anyone here money that over 1/2 the people on this list gain velocity instead of losing it next year. I’d almost say this is a list of people who are likely to have a bounce-back year instead of a list of declining players.(vice-versa on the list of improved velocities)

By: West

West — Tue, 09 Feb 2010 22:39:01 +0000

Lincecum threw more 2 seamers, hence the Velo drop and continued success.

By: MattC

MattC — Tue, 09 Feb 2010 22:02:06 +0000

What I heard was Lincecum’s velo drop was by design. I watched something(I think it was Kurkjian on ESPN) that said that Tim thinks his offspeed stuff works better off of a 92 or 93mph fastball vs. a high 90s one. I don’t really know why he would think that but he obviously knows more about it than me and it’s obviously working so I’m not going to question it. I think what’s more telling is what he can still top out at if he chooses to reach back and looking at his velo charts he was still hitting 96 or 97 at some times so he still has it if he chooses to throw it.

By: DrBGiantsfan

DrBGiantsfan — Tue, 09 Feb 2010 21:27:29 +0000

What’s amazing to me is that over the course of just 3 seasons, Tim has totally reworked his arsenal. When he first came up, he was essentially a two pitch pitcher, 4 seamer and breaking ball. He never threw a two seamer and only rarely threw a rudimentary changeup. He still throws the 4 seamer and breaking ball, but he’s added a two seamer that he throws at least as often as teh 4 seamer and the changeup is an out pitch that is one of the best in baseball.

Short of severe injury requiring surgery, I have a lot of confidence in Timmy’s ability to adjust as he goes along. Maybe his velocity is down a hair, but he’s a much more complete, and better, pitcher.

By: NEPP

NEPP — Tue, 09 Feb 2010 20:40:16 +0000

Park’s drop is easily explained by his use as a starter for the first part of the year. His fastball was right back where it was in 08 once he went back to relief.

Lincecum is a concern to me personally.

By: JohnC

JohnC — Tue, 09 Feb 2010 18:45:07 +0000

I agree with what Max and Peter are saying about Joba. He’s still trying to find his identity as a starter. He’s not even 25!! It didn’t help that Yankee Brass kept him in the dark about their plans for him down the stretch. This was his first full season as a starter, expect him to react and adapt. The drop in velocity doesn’t scare me with him.

By: KMils

KMils — Tue, 09 Feb 2010 18:08:31 +0000

@DrBGiantsfan

Looking at his Pitch Type Values, it appears that Lincecum’s fastball dropped from 26.6 runs above average in 2008 to 10.8 runs above average in 2009; per 100 pitches, runs above average drops from 1.11 to .59. It’s certainly not a bad pitch by any means, and his change-up went from great to devastating in that same stretch, but it does appear to be less effective.

It might be that he’s throwing a two-seamer versus a four-seamer and lost some velocity/effectiveness that he might gain back. Even with a slightly worse fastball, he’s still a two-time Cy Young winner.

By: Peter

Peter — Tue, 09 Feb 2010 17:22:23 +0000

Is it even fair to say that Chamberlain’s fastball has “dropped”? It looks like the greater a percentage of his pitching Joba spends as a starter, the “slower” his fastball becomes, which only makes sense. We know anecdotely that RPs can let it fly more than SPs, so Joba should end up with a slower and slower “average fastball” as he spends less time in the pen.

By: Dude

Dude — Tue, 09 Feb 2010 17:17:13 +0000

Matt – Part of me wonders if the start/relief appearance ratio has anything to do with some of these changes. It would make sense if players who went from starting to relieving (batista comes to mind) would have an uptick in velocity across the board, while those who went from the pen to the rotation (Joba) have a corresponding decrease.

By: BW

BW — Tue, 09 Feb 2010 17:10:04 +0000

I think one criteria for whether or not to be concerned about decrease in velocity is why it occurred. If a pitcher makes a conscious effort to throw more changeups, for example, naturally his velo goes down. But if it’s indicative of an injury, then that’s a whole different story. Not sure how to tell, though, since most pitchers attempt to hide injuries.