Follow-Up on Proposed Rule for Blown-Save Wins
Last week I proposed a change to MLB rules on blown-save wins — i.e., those wins accorded to the relief pitcher who blows a save, but is the pitcher of record when his team re-takes the lead. My proposed rule change was narrow, intending to capture only those blown-save wins credited to the relief pitcher who pitches immediately after the starting pitcher leaves the game with the lead, after having pitched at least seven innings. Under this scenario, the win would revert to the starting pitcher and the relief pitcher would be credited only with the blown save.
Many of you asked to see the list of all blown-save wins that would have reverted to the starting pitcher under my proposed rule change. The below chart lists the 85 games played from 1992-2011 that would have resulted in a different winning pitcher under my proposed rule.
Some interesting nuggets:
- In 23 of the 85 games, the starting pitcher left the game after the seventh inning or later with a 1-0 lead and ended up with a no decision;
- In 20 of the 85 games, the starting pitcher left the game after the seventh inning or later with a lead of 2 or more runs and ended up with a no decision;
- Greg Maddux would have had five additional career wins if my proposed rule had been in effect; and
- John Franco would have had five fewer career wins if my proposed rule had been in effect.
Many of you suggested in the comments that Mike Mussina likely would have gained wins under my proposed rule. But as you can see, Mussina is not on the list. I have looked in more detail at all blown-save wins from 1992-2011 where the starting pitcher lasted at least seven innings. There were 632 such games. Mussina pitched five of them, but since the reliever who blew the save did not pitch immediately after Mussina, that game did not fall within my proposed rule.
In the same vein, as a Giants fan, I expected to find Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum littered throughout the list, as it seems they always pitch in close games and often end up with no decisions. But Cain would have gained only one career win under my proposed rule. Looking at the larger set of blown-save wins where the starter pitched at least seven innings, Cain and Lincecum were each victimized five times–again, fewer than I expected. Perception doesn’t always meet reality.
Those pitchers with the most games from 1992 to 2011 in which they (a) lasted at least seven innings, (b) left the game with a lead, and (c) ended up with a no decision are Tim Hudson (10), Jamie Moyer (9), Greg Maddux (9), Chris Carpenter (9), Kevin Brown (8), Roger Clemens (7) and Johan Santana (7).
Tim Hudson? Who knew.
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I hadn’t realized Frank Viola and Jeff Reardon reunited in Boston in 92.
Or… we could just get rid of the win stat altogether. We could just do that. Right?
I like it. Wins are a team stat, not individual.
yeah, this is like lipstick on a pig as far as I’m concerned.
I’d say use the same rule for everyone — minimum 5 innings pitched. If no pitcher qualifies, call it a team win. Almost as if it were a team game, you know?
Good stat. But it speaks more to good starter/bad bullpen than good starter/sucky offense, which is what has robbed cain and lincecum of so many wins possible wins, when they hold teams to 2 or fewer runs and either lose or get no-decision. i guess what would be interesting is to look at starters in the “closer era” and see the typical rate of starters getting a loss or a no-decision having given up 2 or fewer runs, then seeing if guys like Cain and Lincecum truly have been victimized (and by how much) by the Giants even failing to reach the mean.
Maybe we could just make wins ALWAYS go to the starting pitcher. That would do 2 things. 1) make people stop putting any value at all in that useless “stat” as a means of player analysis and 2) show us what I think we really want it to show us, how often the team wins when a certain pitcher takes the mound.
Oddly, I like this idea a lot!
I really like this idea as well
You list the starting pitchers that were victimized the most, but what about the biggest relief pitching cannibals — I don’t have time to go through the list and count them up, so I’d like to know which relief pitchers got the most wins in this fashion.
What a shame, Wendy, that you have wasted your excellent writing talents on 2 articles on this silliness.
Except for these 2, I have always found your articles relevant and well thought out.
I’m sorry you feel that way. The win stat isn’t going away so thinking about how to make it better strikes me as a worthy topic.