I lol’d.

My logic is simple, it is simply that his swing doesn’t mesh with his home park as indicated by his numbers. You are the one who is confusing it. It doesn’t make sense to assume he has more “road-power” because no player in history has more “road-power” to the extreme of 3-1. What does make sense, what is simplest is that he is playing in a home park that is not particularly well suited to him.

And are you implying that Loney’s personal performance doesn’t matter in evaluating Loney??? And/or are you implying, in addition, that to this end his personal performance is less important than a park factor that is clearly not indicative of anything in this instance? Maybe in other instances, yes, but in this one, obviously not. And that’s more important than the fact that from 2007-2009 Loney hit something like 30 homers on the road and 11 at home???? And this ratio is even more skewed if you include that partial 2006 season.

The problem with statistics really is that you have to know how to read them and contextualize them. It seems to be a big problem with stats, metrics and sports, no matter how far up the statistical totem poll you go.

Look at the numbers. It’s not really that hard to see that it’s possible, and even likely that he’s a 20-25 home run hitter on the road with possible peaks around 30 in his best years and around 18 in his worst, and that puts Loney, in most years, in the bottom of the top 10, with the rest of his game.

With that said, I never got the Loney-frenzy. Is this guy really that much better than Lyle Overbay was a couple years back? Because to me, they look like pretty similar players. with Loney a bit better in AVG and worse in DEF. And nobody was calling Overbay an MVP of anything.

Then why would a team think he’ll START hitting home runs at home suddenly?

By your own logic it seems better to assume he just has more road-power. Why would that change with a different home park??

Who cares what Dodger’s stadium hr factor is? Look up his home road splits. You can look it up on your own site. Every player is an individual, and James Loney until this year James Loney has hit for much more power on the the road than at home.

His three year splits from 2007-2009 which doesn’t include 2006 where he also showed the same tendency: http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/splits?playerId=6497&type=batting3

That’s 743 at bats at home, 34 doubles, 4 triples and 11 home runs. 772 at bats away with 44 doubles, 8 triples and 30 home runs.

That’s a large enough sample size to be significant, and you don’t think Dodger stadium suppresses his home runs? Because of a park factor? As if what happens in a particular situation doesn’t matter at all?

And you aren’t even interested enough in what you wrote to look it up? It takes three minutes. And this is your job. You are supposed to be after some sort of truth, even if it is the relatively boring truth that James Loney (who still should be getting better into his next contract) could be a borderline/lower top 10 first baseman during his next contract and that this was a somewhat lazy article.

He could easily be better than Ryan Howard, Carlos Pena, Tex and Prince Fielder if they play like this year, which wouldn’t surprise as three of the four are entering or in the decline phase of their career. The same guys are not in the top 10 every year.