Four Factors: Shin-Soo Choo
Previous Four Factors Entries:
Carlos Gonzalez
Joe Morgan
Brennan Boesch
Martin Prado
Shin-Soo Choo is a star. I’m not sure if people recognize him as such, mainly because he somehow hasn’t reached any all-star games. Still, there’s no getting around his production. 2010 marks the third straight season in which Choo has a wRC+ above 140, and in all 3 of these seasons Choo has put up at least 2.9 WAR and at least 4.4 WAR per 600 plate appearances. Those are star type numbers, but they often get lost due to the lack of talent surrounding him in Cleveland. Let’s look at what has made Choo such a fantastic hitter these last three seasons.
2008 was Choo’s breakout season, his second year in Cleveland after coming over a deal for Ben Broussard. He showed a solid walk rate and great power, although a big part of what powered his big season was a .367 BABIP. Even without it, Choo would’ve been a solid hitter – the walks and power were there – but that performance on balls in play pushed his season from above average to elite. It’s important to remember that this was a short season for Choo, in which he played 94 games and accrued 370 plate appearances, and that may impact some of these numbers – POW typically won’t stabilize until later in a season.
2009 was a very similar year for Choo, although the power dropped off over the course of a full season. It’s hard to be too disappointed, though, given that Choo still gave the Indians a performance that lives up to many of the elite hitters in the game. Twenty home runs and 38 doubles supplied the power for Choo, which was slightly disappointing given the fact that he put up 14 homers in only 370 PAs the year prior. Still, any player that can put up any sort of decent power numbers – and a POW that was 136% of league average certainly qualifies as decent – while also putting up OBPs near .400 is a fantastic offensive player. Despite this, there’s the elephant in the room – another high BABIP, this time at .370. Even after 1000 PAs, we can’t be sure that it would stay so high, and would Choo remain at such a high level without it?
In 2010, we get the answer to that question: a resounding “yes.” The power dropped off a little bit along with the BABIP, but the plate numbers, BB% and K%, have both moved enough to compensate. A 2% increase in walk rate doesn’t seem that significant, but it moved Choo from 128% of league average to 156%. The big difference is the strikeout percentage. Choo is now striking out less than the league average after two seasons in which he was well above. This almost entirely compensates for the drop in BABIP, as the fact that he now has more balls in play emphasizes his still solid BABIP as well as his good POW score. Of course, we’re dealing with a small sample here, but after 360 PAs, both BB% and K% should start to stabilize.
The Indians haven’t had a good team this year, but Shin-Soo Choo is an excellent piece to build around. As an outside observer and a big fan of Choo, I hope that the Indians can put a solid team around him, if only so that the general public can begin to notice just how incredible a hitter he is.
26
Sorry Seattle
July 26, 2006: Traded by the Seattle Mariners with a player to be named later to the Cleveland Indians for Ben Broussard and cash. The Seattle Mariners sent Shawn Nottingham (minors) (August 24, 2006) to the Cleveland Indians to complete the trade.
Is that the worst trade of the last 5 years? The Santana-Blake swap might end up topping it I suppose, but…
the Hagadone/Masterson/Price for Vmart may take the prize in the end though…. what a bunch of uber-young talent on the Tribe
Silly as it seems, I found out about this guy as I was screwing around with a baseball video game. He has worked out well for my fantasy teams for two years now.
Two years of military service are creeping up fast on him.
nah, the Koreans will most likely win the Asian cup this winter. Japan never send their best teams and Taiwan’s basically blown through all their elite players in the same matter (using military service to force them to play, they won last time around because they got Hong Chih Kuo and others to play in this fashion)
And even if they don’t win, he does have the option of renouncing his South Korean citizenship. It’s a drastic step, but we are talking about a life-altering decision.
Boras client
Choo really is a very good player. He’s also an excellent base runner, and plays a smart outfield, and has a great, accurate throwing arm. Solid all around, and hidden from view in the Indians outfield.
Great hose. Choo was a pitching prospect at one point, and reportedly topped out in the 90s. When he gets a chance to show it off, like last night when he gunned down Granderson, it’s quite impressive.
best arm in baseball.
I think the question in fantasy is VALUE, meaning how much production did you get at what cost. In this sense, i got an absolute steal with Choo. I mean, it is not on the same level as some of my waiver wire pick ups, Huff, Chris Young, Carlos Santana, etc. But as far as draft picks go, i think it was one of my best values and one of the best values out there to draft. Since you know what you’re going to get, and yet the guy always falls pretty low in the draft. Very good value!
I picked up Choo in the 6th round of a 10 team fantasy league. Pick #54 to be exact.
Last year, I got him 20th round of a 10 team league. This year, we expanded to 12 teams, and I got him 6th round.
Oh. I was talking in real life, actually watching him play. He is a delight to watch, and you can always find a seat in Cleveland. It’s good to know he’s a fantasy beast too.
true 5 tool talent. and I think opposing teams are finally realizing his offensive skill. It’s no surprise that his walk rate would increase considering the rest of the lineup. As Santana becomes more feared, and if they can get one ore two more bats, I think Choo’s offensive numbers surge up again.
Top 20 player in the game (maybe top 10), making near the league minimum and he isn’t on the top 50 highest trade value list.
The lingering question with Choo is the aforementioned military commitment. I’ll be interested to see if it has any impact on his pending arbitration this winter, since I can’t see the Tribe settling on a pact to buy the arbitration years of a Boras client, like they are wont to do with their young talent.
I think he was in the trade value list… #30-35 I believe.
I agree with you though – he is a top player any way you look at it.
At first glance he looks like an elite player but long term from a GM point of view you have to consider the national service factor, the Boras factor, and how much he gets in arbitration, providing the tribe don’t buy him out as Jr points out they are unlikely to do.