Franchise Players
Scott Boras says a lot of crazy things – perhaps none quite as absurd as when he compared Oliver Perez to Sandy Koufax last winter – when he’s out stumping for a big contract for his clients. So, we shouldn’t be overly surprised that Boras was willing to espouse platitudes about Matt Holliday to Jerry Crasnick, calling him a “franchise player” and comparing him to Mark Teixeira. In that comment, though, Boras claimed that there were “less than 30″ franchise players, as he sought to put Holliday in that select company.
Setting aside that the phrase “franchise player” is vague and could mean different things to different people, I was curious to find out how many I thought there were in the game. So, let’s take a look.
First off, there’s the no argument tier. Regardless of what you think a franchise player is, pretty much everyone will agree that Albert Pujols, Joe Mauer, Chase Utley, Hanley Ramirez, Mark Teixeira, Alex Rodriguez, Grady Sizemore, Evan Longoria, David Wright, Roy Halladay, CC Sabathia, Tim Lincecum, Dan Haren, and Zack Greinke qualify. Those 14 just shouldn’t really elicit much debate, I don’t think. They’re franchise players by pretty much any definition.
Beyond those guys, though, there are some players who I could imagine will invoke some dissent. They all have a wart of some kind, making them great but not perfect. This group includes Derek Jeter, Dustin Pedroia, Prince Fielder, Kevin Youkilis, Carlos Beltran, Ichiro Suzuki, Josh Beckett, Justin Verlander, Felix Hernandez, and Cliff Lee. I’d vote yes for all 11 of these guys, but there’s a nit to pick with each that could lead one to disagree.
We’re already up to 25 names that I’d be comfortable slapping the franchise player tag on. And there’s still another group that I think you could make a case for – the talented-with-a-sketchy-track-record crowd. These guys have shown franchise player abilities, but may not have sustained that ability over the last few years. This group would include Jose Reyes, Adrian Gonzalez, Troy Tulowitzki, Ryan Zimmerman, Matt Kemp, Ryan Braun, Justin Upton, Miguel Cabrera, Jon Lester, Javier Vazquez, Ubaldo Jimenez, Clayton Kershaw, and Johan Santana.
That’s 13 more guys that I could see making a case for. We’ve already listed 38 names without mentioning Holliday. There’s a lot of trimming to do to get down to Boras’ “less than 30″ estimate. I think I’d probably end up around 32 or 33.
This, obviously, is not particularly objective. Reasonable people can disagree on pretty much everyone in the last two groups, meaning that your number could probably be anywhere from 15 to 40 without being too controversial. But I did find the exercise interesting, and my final count was quite a bit higher than I thought it would be. I suspected I’d end up in the 20 range, but there’s a really good crop of high end talent in the major leagues right now.
Oh, and as for Holliday, I think he fits in well with group two. I’d call him a franchise player too. This bit of propaganda from Boras is actually reasonable.
13
FYI, you included Grady Sizemore in the first two groups. I agree that he’s almost on the borderline of those two, but I’d vote for including him in the second borderline category.
Jeter’s a bit old to be a franchise player. Perhaps he’s more of an Iconic player (I think that’s the stupid term Boras used a while back).
Yeah, I’d have a tough time putting Jeter ahead of young guys like Justin Upton and Ryan Braun as far as “franchise” players go; having said that I agree that the term “franchise player” is very vague and leaves a great deal of room for interpretation.
Just an year older than Alex Rodriguez.
Of course, there is that talent thing, but performance-wise, I think he belongs in the upper echelon. If he is consistently putting up MVP caliber numbers, you have to take notice, regardless of his age.
No Brian McCann?
I would say Braun, Johan Santana, and maybe Miguel Cabrera and Adrian Gonzalez should be in that first group. None of them really have “sketchy track records…” similarly, I would say Dan Haren belongs in that third group, because he’s developing a reputation as a first-half pitcher.
I’d say Grady Sizemore is more second group than first.
I’d probably take Holliday in that second or third group, he definitely could belong in either…I’d take him over Javy Vazquez, Ubaldo Jimenez, maybe Kershaw, Beckett, Jeter, and Justin Upton.
He is definitely part of the second or third group.
I’d definitely put Santana and Cabrera in the first group, and probably Braun, too. Gonzalez probably more belongs in the second, and agree about Sizemore. Holliday really belongs in group ii.
To me, and I don’t think this is a bold statement, a franchise player is someone you would build your team around. I’d much rather build my team around Carl Crawford than Vazquez, Reyes, and I’d probably rather have him than Holliday.
Well, that’s where franchise player takes on different definitions to different people. Some people label young players franchise players because of the potential they have to carry the franchise in the future. Other people name older players franchise players because they HAVE carried their franchises for a long time. Regardless, Dave already addressed that. The point was that if you look at the term “franchise player” with broad strokes, you’ll see that there are probably a decent bit more than Boras’ less than 30 estimate.
Good list. Somehow Haren surprised me that high. He has the numbers to justify it but I might slide him to the second tier since its hard to have your franchise guy become less amazing as the season the progresses.
It is interesting to see Ryan Howard not even making the cut. I could also see a case for Berkman but I would not blame anyone for leaving him off such a list at this point.
Ryan makes the cut against RHPing.
Any way this could be done objectively? Say X% higher WAR than the avg of their team and/or Y% higher than league avg WAR. Your tier qualifiers could be some type of deviation and consistency over time periods.
Not sure how to incorporate youth into something like that, but it is a big factor when I think of franchise players.
Sometimes I wish my college stat class wasn’t open book open note everything. Coulda learned something. damn.
I would take a 2010 projection (or maybe a composite 2010-2013 projection) and go from there (including defense, baserunning, and other stuff in addition to hitting, naturally). Wherever you choose to make the cutoff, you can see how many players lie above it.
how about either of the cardinals cy young contenders? wainwright is putting together quite the track record as a relatively young ace.
Wow, David Wright has really fallen off a cliff around here hasn’t he?
and he deserves it. I would call him about the 5th best third basemen overall. I had him on half my fantasy teams and should have traded him in April frankly.
Because fantasy = reality.
Oh I see I missed him. I actually think this a good list, not too much to argue with since its all so subjective.
He is still falling off that cliff…….
Actually, if he comes back from this offseason still flinching away from inside pitches he might fall rather quickly (though perhaps we’ll get a reprise of him as the Great Gazoo to make up for it.
The only thought I have to add is I think it might make sense to bump pitchers down a bit for the same reasons you bump them down in your trade value rankings. Whatever you want to define a “franchise player” as, it seems to me it would make sense that the players with the highest trade value generally fit the bill the best* – after all, the concept is you’re building around said “franchise player”, right? So building around a pitcher is riskier long term than building around a position player, like you established in your trade values.
*I think most people will focus more on the talent/production compared to their contract for defining a “franchise player” than they would for trade value, so that might change things a bit
Dave,
We know what Boras is trying to do- sell a product. And yes, he makes ridiculous over exaggerations that only Minaya and Dayton Moore would read into. But is the Holliday-Tex comparison really that absurd? They play entirely different positions, true, but the first has played 6 seasons and accumulated 29 WAR, the second has totaled 29.7 in 7 seasons. That’s 4.8 WAR per season versus 4.25 WAR per season. After all the tea and cakes and ices, you’re getting remarkably similar value.
Also, they’re doing it in similar ways, by being “complete” players, as SB pointed out. Solid fielding, good power, good OBP, etc. Holliday has more speed, and isn’t docked for the positional adjustment as much as Tex is, so he’s slightly more valuable. But the comparison really is an okay one. Especially by Boras standards.
Then again, you did acknowledge that this “bit of propaganda” is a reasonable one. So… good work! Enjoyed it.
I would put Votto into the second or third group. He’s been better than several of the players you list. He probably needs to keep producing for another year at least to really earn the tag all the way, but he’s young and he’s had a high value over the last few years. He’s not Pujols, but I wouldn’t mind building a team around him.
Mostly, I think this is an interesting exercise and a fun article. I really enjoy trying to define terms that are pretty foggy.
Placing Ubaldo Jimenez in the third tier seems fringy since it’s inviting a group of other pitchers like Josh Johnson that are equal (or even better) but weren’t included.
The pitchers in general seem too scattershot from year to year to have an accurate indicator of who is a franchise player outside the top 5. For instance, if this had been written last year I’m sure Cole Hamels as a 24 year old MVP winner would’ve probably been in the 2nd tier, now he’s not listed.
On the other hand, Javy Vazquez wouldn’t have been on this list any of the past 5 years and probably won’t be on this list next year either or ever again. Not to mention given his reputation in the clubhouse as a leader or lack of one I doubt any GM would feel comfortable with him as a franchise pitcher. I would think Frank Wren would consider Tommy Hanson as more of a franchise pitcher today.
I’d move Zimmerman up to the second group… but otherwise no complaints here.
Agreed…I know it’s fantasy baseball, but THT just had an interesting “Clone Wars” comparison between Zim and Longo with respect to how similar their 2009′s were. No doubt Longo is largely the face of the Rays franchise; however, it is undeniable that Zim is the Nats “man”.
Enjoyed the article and musings Dave. It’s nice everyone here isn’t so analytical as to refrain from these types of “bar stool” comparisons occasionally.
Yeah I’d take Zimmerman over many players listed above him…his only “sketchy” year was 2008 when he got off to a slow start and then injured his shoulder. That, and he’s the best third baseman in the game right now.
Matt Holliday > Mark Teixeira
According to WAR, over the last three years Matt Holliday has been the 5th best player in baseball, while Teixeira has been the 9th best. I’m really having a hard time understanding why Dave Cameron keeps posting these articles claiming Teixeira is the better player.
I should note I meant to say 5th best hitter in baseball.
OPS+ is a bit in favor of Tex (141 vs 133), which probably adjusts down the Coors factor. That’s my guess.
Holliday’s defense more than makes up for that.
I’m curious as to what nits anybody other than Steve Phillips would pick with Beltran.
missing almost all of 2009 would be a pretty good start, no?
Grady Sizemore only played twenty-five more games than Beltran did this year, and it’s not like Beltran’s been particularly injury prone – he’s played at least 140 games every year since ’01, and at least 150 in all but two of those years.
No love for Ryan Howard?
See above comments.
None from me
I’ll bite, I like to play the devil’s advocate.
Sorry about this if the formatting comes out badly. Reducing all the other noise down to WAR and DOBs. I added PA just for some context. If we are talking about Franchise players I’d probaby add a ton more guys, I guess I’d take the approach that anyone that gets a 5 year deal should be considered a frachise player, but this is just my opinion. Now on to some numbers, mr.phd can take a quick look…
Player A
DOB: 3/15/1979, PAs: 2,857, WAR: 19.5
Player B
DOB: 4/11/1980, PAs: 4,638, WAR: 29.7
Player C
DOB: 11/19/1979, PAs 3,145, WAR: 21.7
Player C is Howard, is that really so awful that he doesn’t even get any consideration or mentioning here? Player B is Youklis. Why does he get such an easy pass? Because he plays a bunch of positions? Because he was in Moneyball? Because he plays for eveyone’s favorite team? Seems to be pretty similar to Howard if you boil it all down to WAR. Player A is Texeira and clearly is the best of the three. If you are taking out the context of what these guys get paid right now, and are trying to project over the next 4-5 years I guess you could make the case that Howard belongs. He may drop off quicker, but I don’t know he had a pretty sharp year in 2009 and is still a heck of player given his slugging ability.
I’m not sure how fair it is just looking into the future and saying these guys won’t be good from now becaue of age though, I’ll admit I don’t know much, but I don’t think Ichiro is going to be good 5 years from either, just given his age, so if you want to knock Howard cause he’s older then I think you may need to knock some other guys too.
Anyway, I’m glad tcw84 asked the question, because I wouldn’t have realized Howard at least warrented a discussion before looking, and I’ll admit, being suprised at the some of the numbers.
Juan Pierre’s contract makes him a Franchise player! Who knew?
WalkOff…Sorry to get so long to get back to this, but that is exactly my point. I think you need to count the guys that have enormously bad contracts, becuase more so than others, they are directly tied to their franchises. Juan Pierre isn’t the fist example I would have picked. When the cubs gave soriano that gigantic contract, they were 100% bestowing upon him “Franchise Player” status. Did he deserve it at the time? i don’t know, but it doesn’t change the fact that he is now and very much tied to the cubs just because of his contract (both the money and length), and therefore, again this is just my opinion, he is a franchise player, but probably not the kind of franchise player you want. See the way I look at it, is Boras is free to market these guys as franchise players, but he can’t escape the fact that some guys that at one point were marketed as franchise players did not live up to the marketing status.
Santana might belong where he is shown but just a year ago he would have been top 5, certainly over Sabathia. Just a note what happens when you deal with living players and not video games or Strat cards. A year ago Greinke might not have even been on list 3.
I would have listed Greinke on the third list last season, but I closely follow small market teams.
From the Royals standpoint he would definitely have been in Group 3 last year.
I would probably move Adrian Gonzalez up on that list, he plays in a pitchers park and has still put up huge numbers. His home and away splits are insane, I think he should be put on the second list.
Also no Ryan Braun or Carl Crawford?
I would think both of those guys would atleast make one of those 3 list?
Also I agree with another poster, I think Brian McCann should be on there as well. I know he’s not as good as Joe Mauer but he’s good enough to make one of the other 2 list.
He has made the All-Star team all 4 years that he’s been a starter. His numbers where hurt a little last year because of blurred vision and having to wear glasses that he wasn’t use to which kept fogging up…etc He still didn’t have a terrible year but I really think those things cost him from having an even better year.
Braun is on the list.
Guess I over looked that one…lol
Still I think I have a good case with the others (assuming I didn’t over look someone else…lol)
I would put Ryan Zimmerman in the top 10 and way ahead of grady Sizemore on this list. Zimmerman was the 5th best player in baseball this season at any position based on WAR. He has never had a down year and gotten better every season. You can’t blame a guy for the talent around him. What is not to like?
Since there are only 30 franchises, it seems a reasonable definition would be the 30 best players?
If that’s the case, Boras’ definition may be right on…
Only if you include Chris Carter for the As. While he doesn’t have a single MLB PA, he’s probably the most valuable asset the team has right now, with the possible exception of Brett Anderson. But I agree with a suggestion above that variability in pitching year-to-year makes it harder for a pitcher to be a franchise player. So, Carter it is! Which tier?
Pretty ridiculous that Matt Kemp is on this list….LOL…
this kid is an absolute joke….no way you can build around this human windmill strikeout machine…
not to mention he won the GG today, which is ludicrous. This kid is fast becoming the most overrated player in baseball.
Gold Glove??? His UZR was horrible….
no way you can build around this human windmill strikeout machine…
Just like you couldn’t build around strikeout machines like Reggie Jackson, Willie Stargell, Mike Schmidt, Ken Griffey Jr., Manny Ramirez, Alex Rodriguez, Harmon Killebrew…?
Oh, and by the way? Kemp’s K% was four points lower than David Wright’s. Guess the Mets can’t build around that bum.
What an embarrassing comment for you. Kemp actually struck out less times than Wright this year in more at-bats. That’s Wright, I said it.
Not sure which Matt Kemp you were watching, but the one I got to watch all season is pretty damn good. His UZR this year was 7th best among ML CFs in 2009 and has shown a positive trend since coming up to the big leagues. You don’t even need UZR to see that. Having been at many games over the past 4 years you can see the difference. Did he deserve the GG? No. But he’s made himself into a solid defender.
That doesn’t even touch on the offensive side of the game. Not only have his counting stats similarly gone up over the past four years, but his stat rates have also improved. His walk rate has gone up each year, his K rate is going down (more PAs = more Ks but doing it at a lower rate), his ISO, OBP, SLG, wOBA, wRAA are trending up. His HR/FB and FB% are going up, which indicates an increase in HR.
Did you even bother to see just how good Matt Kemp already is? Forget about how good he could become. Matt Kemp is a franchise player for the Dodgers. Clayton Kershaw will be a franchise player very soon as well.
I’m skeptical on Teixeira — I think he should be in one of those groups, yes, but not in group 1. I just don’t see him putting out those kind of franchise-player seasons with the consistency of a guy like Utley; to say nothing of the fact that the best year of his career still doesn’t equal the worst full year of Utley’s.
Teixeira is not a franchise player. I want a leader, which is why Jeter, despite bad defense, should be in Group 1. Teixeira does not seem to have the burning desire, fire in the belly, to win. Can’t be a no brainer franchise player unless you can show it.
$5?
I understand concerns given his strikeout rate, possibility for a huge drop-off (which I do not fully understand the justification, if someone could please explain?) and sometimes shoddy defense, but to be honest Ryan Howard is probably THE premier run producer in the game, aside from Pujols. Plus the guy has been working his tail off to improve the glove. With the strides he made this year, and considering J Roll (though as a Phillies fan I don’t mind) stole another one from Troy Tulowitski, maybe he’ll be winning a gold glove soon:). In seriousness though, I cannot see it feasible to call Derek Jeter (whom I respect a tremendous amount) more of a franchise player than one of the best run producers in recent memory. I can honestly say that I believe Ryan Howard to be one of the most under appreciated player in the big leagues, no matter what the analytical statistics read.
Halladay???
Votto in group 3?
Nick Markakis says hi!
If Tex is in group one, Morneau should be included in one of these tiers, just mho.
Anyway, I think Erich had it right.
30 Franchises, 30 Players. Simple.
Of course, who the franchise for each team is up for debate. Angels (Guerrero), Cubs (Zambrano), Mariners (Ichiro), Yankees (Jeter), Red Sox (Ortiz), Cardinals (Pujols), etc
Perhaps you missed my response above: “Only if you include Chris Carter for the As. While he doesn’t have a single MLB PA, he’s probably the most valuable asset the team has right now, with the possible exception of Brett Anderson. But I agree with a suggestion above that variability in pitching year-to-year makes it harder for a pitcher to be a franchise player. So, Carter it is! Which tier?”
I think this reduces that claim of “30 franchise players” to absurdity.
how did they forget Ryan Howard…he is definately a Franchise player
leaving R. Howard off the list is absolutely the wright choice.
Sure he’s destroys righties, but he’s also a horrible fielder and can’t hit lefties to save his lfe.
He’s actually just a suped up version of Matt Kemp.