“And I won’t be surprised if he’s a 5 WAR guy (or 3 for that matter), making him possibly almost a +10 million guy, worth more than Alderson is valued at this moment.”

So, best case scenerio he’s worth about 1M more than Alderson. Worst case he’s worth about 10M less (3 WAR puts him at about -1M relative to his contract: 9- (-1)=10). The over under has Sanchez at about 3-4M less than Alderson. So, that’s a good deal?

Like, I’ve said, this isn’t a horrible deal from the Giants perspective, but sure isn’t a good deal.

“But the thing is he’s getting payed more than he would be worth in this situation. That means he (meaning his production and his contract) isn’t actually WORTH 6 million to Giants, its actually costing the Giants about 4 million. This is something people continually fail to understand. You have to take his on-field value and contract into consideration.”

He’s getting paid 11 million, and he’ll likely be at least a 4 WAR layer, making him a net +5/6 mil guy.

People may fail to understand this, but I do not. And I won’t be surprised if he’s a 5 WAR guy (or 3 for that matter), making him possibly almost a +10 million guy, worth more than Alderson is valued at this moment.

And of course if he’s a Type A, then the Giants easily win this deal at this moment.

“Anyways, let’s say Sanchez does decline. Worst case we’re looking at 1 WAR in 2009, and probably 2-3 WAR in 2010. So he’ll be worth a net value of about 6 million. If he’s a Type B, about 8.5 million, and 11 million if he’s a Type A.”

But the thing is he’s getting payed more than he would be worth in this situation. That means he (meaning his production and his contract) isn’t actually WORTH 6 million to Giants, its actually costing the Giants about 4 million. This is something people continually fail to understand. You have to take his on-field value and contract into consideration.

My feeling is his production probably going to be a rough draw to his pay (as fangraphs would calculate it). However, the market underpays second basemen. So, the Giants could have gone out and got something similar to Sanchez (or even Sanchez himself if the Pirates don’t pick up the option), for less if they just waited 2 months. Then it seems to me Alderson’s value is correctly interpreted to be in the Top 75-100 range and thus worth $9M. Thus, this was a poor deal for the Giants, it may not be as horrible as some are making it out to be, but I do think it was still a bad deal.

Anyways, let’s say Sanchez does decline. Worst case we’re looking at 1 WAR in 2009, and probably 2-3 WAR in 2010. So he’ll be worth a net value of about 6 million. If he’s a Type B, about 8.5 million, and 11 million if he’s a Type A.

This is a very even trade, people are completely overreacting.

Then how do we keep dropping Alderson’s value? First it was he’s Top 50, then he’s bottom 100, now you’re saying he’s not even Top 100? Why is that? Sure his value MIGHT be less than 9 million but it MIGHT also be more than that. The point is the 9 million is the most likely scenario, if we take some of the experts word for his placement. That being he was a Top 50 guy but his stock has fallen to the 75-100 range.

And also, Alderson’s stock has fallen way off and it seems like his potential is a #5 SP at this point, not really top 100 prospect material. So his value might even be less than 9 million.

And if he’s Type A or even Type B and the Giants get compensation, it’s a win.