Comments on: Free Agent Bargain: Derek Lowe http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/free-agent-bargain-derek-lowe/ Daily baseball statistical analysis and commentary Mon, 13 Feb 2012 00:21:02 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: cancer treatment updates http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/free-agent-bargain-derek-lowe/#comment-1170736 cancer treatment updates Mon, 26 Sep 2011 12:50:56 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/free-agent-bargain-derek-lowe/#comment-1170736 A Web site from the Federal Trade Commission with information for cancer patients about how to spot and report false health claims and the importance of talking with their physicians about treatments they are considering. A Web site from the Federal Trade Commission with information for cancer patients about how to spot and report false health claims and the importance of talking with their physicians about treatments they are considering.

]]> By: crewfan http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/free-agent-bargain-derek-lowe/#comment-57120 crewfan Fri, 19 Dec 2008 21:12:21 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/free-agent-bargain-derek-lowe/#comment-57120 what about the Brewers signinging, now that the Yanks got CC. Put Lowe and Sheets together? what about the Brewers signinging, now that the Yanks got CC. Put Lowe and Sheets together?

]]> By: StatMan http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/free-agent-bargain-derek-lowe/#comment-55783 StatMan Wed, 10 Dec 2008 18:20:00 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/free-agent-bargain-derek-lowe/#comment-55783 Bargain?? they're talking about 4 years and 66M. That's almost 17M annually. He's not an ace. He's not even young. and by the way, you can not look at his numbers as a whole. Similarly to how you can't expect a player to leave Coors Field and produce the same, you can't expect a pitcher from a picther's ballpark to do the same elsewhere, and a year older. And Derek lowe 4 yrs 66M?? I hope that's just residual BS in case the Yanks couldn't sign Sabathia. I really hope they know they do not need both. Or the fact that when Hughes looks like a stud this year and the year is over and we're stuck with Lowe for another 3 years. And if Sabathia chokes this looks even worse. I guess on the bright side, wen Sabathia leaves after 3 years we'll still have Derek Lowe! and by then with all the deferred money he should be making about $19M. 2006 - 2008 42 - 33, 3.58ERA, 628IP, 609H, 48HR - .97H/IP .66K/IP, .25BB/IP, - 1.05WHIP, .254BAA HOME 25-15, 2.95ERA, 320IP, 283H, 25HR, - .88H/IP, .70K/IP, .22BB/IP - 0.95WHIP, .235 BAA AWAY 17-18, 4.24ERA, 308IP, 326H, 23HR - 1.06H/IP, .63K/IP, .29BB/IP, - 1.35WHIP, .273BAA CAREER AT YANKEE STADIUM 3-5, 52IP, 68H, 20BB, 20K, 9HR, 6.02 ERA, 1.68 WHIP, 3.19 BAA His park adjusted ERA is 4.25. His career park adjusted ERA is 4.56 Na, he didn't benefit greatly from pitching in Dodger Stadium. Na, not at all. These stats show two different pitchers home and away. Let's also not forget that last year he had 70 AB facing a pitcher, and they hit .113 against him. The #3 and #4 hitter averaged .266, 3.5hr, 15rbi. Pitchers averaged .113, 0HR, 2RBI When you supplant the production from a pitcher with that of a DH, and you factor in how pitching in Dodger Stadium helped (park adjusted ERA) elevate his overall performance you can expect his numbers to go up around 1 earned run, and you have one over-priced Boras client that the Yankees are going to make another mistake on. Lets the Mets have him. A sinker baller in Shea wouldn't be too bad of an idea, especially f he stays in the NL. If comes to the AL East he's going to look like Barry Zito. Bargain?? they’re talking about 4 years and 66M. That’s almost 17M annually. He’s not an ace. He’s not even young. and by the way, you can not look at his numbers as a whole. Similarly to how you can’t expect a player to leave Coors Field and produce the same, you can’t expect a pitcher from a picther’s ballpark to do the same elsewhere, and a year older.

And Derek lowe 4 yrs 66M?? I hope that’s just residual BS in case the Yanks couldn’t sign Sabathia. I really hope they know they do not need both. Or the fact that when Hughes looks like a stud this year and the year is over and we’re stuck with Lowe for another 3 years. And if Sabathia chokes this looks even worse. I guess on the bright side, wen Sabathia leaves after 3 years we’ll still have Derek Lowe! and by then with all the deferred money he should be making about $19M.

2006 – 2008
42 – 33, 3.58ERA, 628IP, 609H, 48HR – .97H/IP .66K/IP, .25BB/IP, – 1.05WHIP, .254BAA

HOME
25-15, 2.95ERA, 320IP, 283H, 25HR, – .88H/IP, .70K/IP, .22BB/IP – 0.95WHIP, .235 BAA

AWAY
17-18, 4.24ERA, 308IP, 326H, 23HR – 1.06H/IP, .63K/IP, .29BB/IP, – 1.35WHIP, .273BAA

CAREER AT YANKEE STADIUM
3-5, 52IP, 68H, 20BB, 20K, 9HR, 6.02 ERA, 1.68 WHIP, 3.19 BAA

His park adjusted ERA is 4.25. His career park adjusted ERA is 4.56
Na, he didn’t benefit greatly from pitching in Dodger Stadium. Na, not at all. These stats show two different pitchers home and away.

Let’s also not forget that last year he had 70 AB facing a pitcher, and they hit .113 against him.
The #3 and #4 hitter averaged .266, 3.5hr, 15rbi.
Pitchers averaged .113, 0HR, 2RBI

When you supplant the production from a pitcher with that of a DH, and you factor in how pitching in Dodger Stadium helped (park adjusted ERA) elevate his overall performance you can expect his numbers to go up around 1 earned run, and you have one over-priced Boras client that the Yankees are going to make another mistake on.

Lets the Mets have him. A sinker baller in Shea wouldn’t be too bad of an idea, especially f he stays in the NL. If comes to the AL East he’s going to look like Barry Zito.

]]> By: Sky http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/free-agent-bargain-derek-lowe/#comment-49620 Sky Fri, 31 Oct 2008 19:43:37 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/free-agent-bargain-derek-lowe/#comment-49620 The article may have focused on Lowe's 2008 season, but here are his xFIPs over the past four years with the Dodgers: 2008: 3.43 2007: 3.50 2006: 3.80 2005: 3.53 Not exactly a one-year wonder. Going by FIP instead of xFIP, he's averaged about 3.70 over the last four years. I think Dave's assumption of a 4.25 FIP going forward is conservative enough. The article may have focused on Lowe’s 2008 season, but here are his xFIPs over the past four years with the Dodgers:

2008: 3.43
2007: 3.50
2006: 3.80
2005: 3.53

Not exactly a one-year wonder. Going by FIP instead of xFIP, he’s averaged about 3.70 over the last four years. I think Dave’s assumption of a 4.25 FIP going forward is conservative enough.

]]> By: kpresidente http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/free-agent-bargain-derek-lowe/#comment-49587 kpresidente Fri, 31 Oct 2008 14:06:19 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/free-agent-bargain-derek-lowe/#comment-49587 Forget the park factor, he had a 4.42 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP on the road, and his 3-year home/away splits are pretty wide, too. That makes him a question mark. I think $15 mil is about right, but could even turn out to be a bad deal if that split is indicative. He's the most overrated "underrated player" out there. Forget the park factor, he had a 4.42 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP on the road, and his 3-year home/away splits are pretty wide, too. That makes him a question mark. I think $15 mil is about right, but could even turn out to be a bad deal if that split is indicative. He’s the most overrated “underrated player” out there.

]]> By: Stax http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/free-agent-bargain-derek-lowe/#comment-49563 Stax Fri, 31 Oct 2008 07:05:17 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/free-agent-bargain-derek-lowe/#comment-49563 I don't understand the heavily one-season focus of this article. Yes Lowe put up a very nice season, but it was his age 35 season and they were the best ERA, ERA+, WHIP, etc in 5 years. Why would you expect a 36/37/38 and possibly (depending on deal length) 39 year old pitcher to perform like he did in his BEST year and not decline from what you expect (which would be closer to his lower career numbers than his 2008 numbers to begin with)? I don’t understand the heavily one-season focus of this article. Yes Lowe put up a very nice season, but it was his age 35 season and they were the best ERA, ERA+, WHIP, etc in 5 years. Why would you expect a 36/37/38 and possibly (depending on deal length) 39 year old pitcher to perform like he did in his BEST year and not decline from what you expect (which would be closer to his lower career numbers than his 2008 numbers to begin with)?

]]> By: Gerry http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/free-agent-bargain-derek-lowe/#comment-49550 Gerry Fri, 31 Oct 2008 02:20:48 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/free-agent-bargain-derek-lowe/#comment-49550 Lowe has already succeeded in the AL with the Red Sox, who may try and lure him back. At his age and price, he is expensive at $15M in an already strong rotation, but he expressed his desire to return to Boston, where he would be welcomed by the Sox very tight infield of Gold Glove Lowell, rookie Lowrie with zero E's in half the season, ROY Pedroia, Gold Glove Youk. A rotation of Beckett, Daisuke, Lester, Lowe, Wakefield with Buchholz, Bowden, maybe Masterson as possible starters would be formidable. On the other hand, this rotation is formidable and reasonably priced even without Lowe or CC. Hmmm! J.D.Drew, despite his downtime, has been worth every penny. His D is Gold Glove caliber. He positions himself well, gets a good jump and, with his speed, makes RF look easy. He settled in to the AL & Fenway in 2008, literally keeping Boston in contention during June and into July when Papi went down and Manny's Hammies led to the trade. He is one of the most clutch hitters in the league, and wins big games consistently. He will be shooting for +/- .300/25/100 in 2009, which is where he was heading in 2008 when his back seized up. Bay, Ellsbury, Drew is one of the stronger defensive outfields. Lowe has already succeeded in the AL with the Red Sox, who may try and lure him back. At his age and price, he is expensive at $15M in an already strong rotation, but he expressed his desire to return to Boston, where he would be welcomed by the Sox very tight infield of Gold Glove Lowell, rookie Lowrie with zero E’s in half the season, ROY Pedroia, Gold Glove Youk.
A rotation of Beckett, Daisuke, Lester, Lowe, Wakefield with Buchholz, Bowden, maybe Masterson as possible starters would be formidable. On the other hand, this rotation is formidable and reasonably priced even without Lowe or CC. Hmmm!

J.D.Drew, despite his downtime, has been worth every penny. His D is Gold Glove caliber. He positions himself well, gets a good jump and, with his speed, makes RF look easy.

He settled in to the AL & Fenway in 2008, literally keeping Boston in contention during June and into July when Papi went down and Manny’s Hammies led to the trade. He is one of the most clutch hitters in the league, and wins big games consistently. He will be shooting for +/- .300/25/100 in 2009, which is where he was heading in 2008 when his back seized up. Bay, Ellsbury, Drew is one of the stronger defensive outfields.

]]> By: Drew http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/free-agent-bargain-derek-lowe/#comment-49527 Drew Thu, 30 Oct 2008 19:50:29 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/free-agent-bargain-derek-lowe/#comment-49527 Yeah and it's not like he put up a 3.26 ERA but had a 4.50 FIP, and you could expect his numbers to get especially ugly in the AL. Sure he'd be hit harder, but as rational people, we're able to compare him to the rest of the league. If he ends up in the AL, and puts up an ERA+ of 130, he'll still be very valuable, well worth the $15 mil/yr he's going to get. The guy who made that comment was just trying to be "shocking". Yeah and it’s not like he put up a 3.26 ERA but had a 4.50 FIP, and you could expect his numbers to get especially ugly in the AL. Sure he’d be hit harder, but as rational people, we’re able to compare him to the rest of the league. If he ends up in the AL, and puts up an ERA+ of 130, he’ll still be very valuable, well worth the $15 mil/yr he’s going to get.

The guy who made that comment was just trying to be “shocking”.

]]> By: Craig http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/free-agent-bargain-derek-lowe/#comment-49523 Craig Thu, 30 Oct 2008 19:29:32 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/free-agent-bargain-derek-lowe/#comment-49523 Dodger Stadium has actually been pretty neutral over the past few years. He'd probably experience a bit of a jump in ERA in the AL, but if you look at what he did this year, being a groundball pitcher and having the defense behind him that he did, it probably wouldn't be as big as you expect. I mean he had a couple games with Blake at 3rd and Nomar at SS. That's 0 range on the left side. Can't remember if Kent was healthy for those games, but god help a groundball pitcher with those 3 on the same infield. I know Dodger Stadium is known for being a pitchers park, but it's been pretty neutral recently. Dodger Stadium has actually been pretty neutral over the past few years. He’d probably experience a bit of a jump in ERA in the AL, but if you look at what he did this year, being a groundball pitcher and having the defense behind him that he did, it probably wouldn’t be as big as you expect. I mean he had a couple games with Blake at 3rd and Nomar at SS. That’s 0 range on the left side. Can’t remember if Kent was healthy for those games, but god help a groundball pitcher with those 3 on the same infield. I know Dodger Stadium is known for being a pitchers park, but it’s been pretty neutral recently.

]]> By: Scappy http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/free-agent-bargain-derek-lowe/#comment-49520 Scappy Thu, 30 Oct 2008 18:06:28 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/free-agent-bargain-derek-lowe/#comment-49520 JD Drew is 2+ wins above average over the last four years (which include a season where his kid almost died). That was just at the plate, I'm pretty sure he is at least average in right field as well as running the base paths. Conservatively he is 2 wins better than the average player, say at least 3 better than a replacement level. You can conservatively put Drew down as being worth the money. JD Drew is 2+ wins above average over the last four years (which include a season where his kid almost died). That was just at the plate, I’m pretty sure he is at least average in right field as well as running the base paths. Conservatively he is 2 wins better than the average player, say at least 3 better than a replacement level. You can conservatively put Drew down as being worth the money.

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