Comments on: Free Agent Bargain: Jeremy Affeldt

By: drillfork

drillfork — Thu, 20 Nov 2008 00:10:32 +0000

PEDs?…

By: obsessivegiantscompulsive

obsessivegiantscompulsive — Mon, 17 Nov 2008 23:02:58 +0000

The Giants sign him for two years, $8M, or about what mymrbig suggested, though he might not won’t get the chance to close with the Giants. However, he could establish himself as a really good set-up guy who is ready to close with two good years and he’ll still be only 32 for the season he starts his next contract.

By: mymrbig

mymrbig — Tue, 28 Oct 2008 05:38:36 +0000

Tom Au, all the more reason to trade Capps! Because he is affordable, he fits the budget of a more teams than F-Rod or Fuentes, and he is a lot more desirable than the other closing retread alternatives like Izzy, Gagne, etc. And he while he is signed to a very affordable contract for 2009 ($2.3 million), he is arbitration eligible in 2010 and 2011 and probably won’t be all that cheap.

Affeldt is too good to be a Grabow replacement, as Grabow is more of a LOOGY with big splits. Affeldt is equally effective against righties & lefties.

By: Tom Au

Tom Au — Mon, 27 Oct 2008 22:19:24 +0000

The Pirates picked up Phil Dumatrait off Cincinnati this year.Maybe they’ll do the same with Affeldt. Good tip, Dave, and mymrbig.

Affeldt would be a replacement for John Grabow. The Pirates have Capps locked up till 2011 at an affordable contract.

By: mymrbig

mymrbig — Mon, 27 Oct 2008 18:22:07 +0000

Oh yeah, how funny is it that the Reds gave Francisco Cordero a rightfully criticized 4 year, $46 million contract and somehow also ended up with Affeldt as a bargain at 1 year, $3 million? Plus they get a comp pick if Affeldt signs elsewhere.

Dave, since so many teams overvalue closers, do you think it would make sense for someone like the Mariners or Pirates to try and snag some nice prospects by dealing Putz or Capps, assuming they could ink Affeldt as a replacement?

By: mymrbig

mymrbig — Mon, 27 Oct 2008 18:16:06 +0000

Moving away from Coors also probably helped improve the K/9. I have thought Affeldt is very underrated and have been trying to sell him as a potential closer in a few forums (I think he would work for almost any team). In fact, Dave, I think you stole my idea!!! Well, I guess I should acknowledge that it is possible for two people to independently have the same idea, but color me skeptical.

I think it would be smart to see some rebuilding team to offer Affeldt something like 3 years, $9 million with some nice incentives for games finished that could take him to around $5 million (incentives distributed so it would be really hard to earn over $4.5 million). If he implodes as a closer, then 3 years, $9 million is a solid contract for a younger, LH set-up guy that is more than a LOOGY. And 3 years, $15 million for an “established closer” is a good deal that would allow the team to flip Affeldt after “establishing” himself as a closer. They idea could even be sold to Affeldt that his next contract would increase big time if he could “establish” himself as a closer. Maybe even go for a 2-year deal with a fairly expensive team option ($7 million) and a fairly inexpensive buyout ($300,000).

By: Derris

Derris — Mon, 27 Oct 2008 17:52:59 +0000

That should read: Really, who expects Affeldt to K over 9/G and BB less than 3/G during his next 78 IP?

By: Derris

Derris — Mon, 27 Oct 2008 17:51:58 +0000

Kalk’s data suggests that Affeldt had roughly a 1 mph increase in velocity between ’07 and ’08. That is a short peg to hang a “most underrated pitcher in baseball” hat upon.

Really, who expects Affeldt to K over 9/G and less than 3/G during his next 78 IP?

By: Dave Cameron

Dave Cameron — Mon, 27 Oct 2008 17:23:51 +0000

Josh Kalk’s Pitch F/x card has Affeldt’s average fastball velocity at 95.59 MPH and his curve at 80.02 MPH this year.

So, let’s see, what’s more probable here:

Option A: Affeldt started throwing harder and his performance improved as a result.

Option B: Affeldt did not start throwing harder, the BIS and Pitch F/x systems are both wrong, and his performance improvement is due to some unknown factor.

Good luck with Option B.

By: Derris

Derris — Mon, 27 Oct 2008 17:16:22 +0000

A relief pitcher as one of the most underrated pitchers in the game? Affeldt as this mythical creature based upon 78 innings and gun readings that may or may not represent anything real?

Color me skeptical.