Free Kyle Blanks?
In 2009, at the precocious age of 22, Kyle Blanks stormed into the Show and promptly swatted 10 big flies, and his .372 wOBA — in a limited sample — was third-best on the Padres. In other words, he had arrived, and the Friars happily installed him as their cleanup hitter for the 2010 campaign. But after a slow start, Blanks was felled by Tommy John surgery, and has seemingly been an afterthought since. Is the big man still capable of pulverizing pitches, and if so, does he need to be traded in order to do so?
Pair Blanks’ 2010 struggles with his play last year, and you don’t have a pretty picture. In his last 88 games (and 310 plate appearances) at the Major League level the past two seasons, he has hit .202/.294/.375. Not only is that unsightly, but it also comprises more than 64 percent of his total Major League plate appearances. As a result, his projections heading into this year aren’t overwhelmingly positive. Rotochamp has Blanks pegged for a .329 wOBA, which would put him as the 40th best first baseman out of 63, or tied for 88th out of 175 outfielders. Bill James’ numbers are slightly more optimistic, pegging him for a .339 wOBA, but that’s nowhere near the .372 mark he put up in ’09.
But is that a fair projection? His problems in 2010 were injury related, and his problems last year can be explained by the playing that he was doled out. If you look closely at this 2011 line, you can see a clear demarcation in performance. In August, his first full month back, he started 26 of 28 games, and hit well — .273/.324/.566, with seven homers and a .380 wOBA. But in September, the team brought Anthony Rizzo back up. He needed playing time, as did Jesus Guzman — who was also swinging a hot bat — and Blanks’ PT suffered. As his playing time suffered, so too did his play. He started only 13 of the 25 games for the month, and hit just .213/.296/.234. It was a dismal end to an otherwise productive first season back. Blanks had hit fairly well in Double-A, and then tore up Triple-A before finally getting back to the Majors. In fact, if you take out the final month of the season, Blanks hit .290/.360/.548 across three levels, before imploding in September. Do those numbers have to be taken with a grain of salt? Absolutely, some of it came against Double-A pitching. But it paints a starkly different picture than .202/.294/.373 does.
Nevertheless, the Padres are not counting on Blanks heading into the season. The team traded for Carlos Quentin to take over in left, and first base will be manned by Yonder Alonso and Guzman. In right, there is the venerable trio of Will Venable, Chris Denorfia and Mark Kotsay, who turns up so frequently that his nickname should be “Bad Penny.” Throw in Cameron Maybin in center, and that’s five outfielders. Teams don’t usually carry six, so there is a decent chance that Blanks will start the season in the Minors, as the Padres want him to get regular work. At this juncture, it seems the best he could hope for at the Major League level is the shallow half of a platoon with Venable.
Venable may actually hold the key to Blanks’ fate in San Diego. An above-average hitter against right-handed pitching, Venable has been a sink against lefties, and at age 29, there may not be any improvement left to discover in his game. If he comes out of the gate slowly, Blanks could supplant him on a full-time basis, but that might not happen until June at the earliest. The Pads could also be holding Blanks back as insurance for Quentin, who is no stranger to the disabled list and may only be with the team until he becomes an attractive trade chip at the trading deadline. Even if the Padres choose not to deal him, he can become a free agent next winter, so Blanks may have to bide his time until 2013.
As it stands now, Kyle Blanks is a man without a home. The Friars seem set with their five outfield positions. There would be no harm in cutting Kotsay, but rotating Blanks in and out of the starting lineup didn’t work in September — he may need to be in the lineup everyday to be successful. As a result, Blanks may be bound for Tucson, to await either Venable floundering or Quentin hurting himself or being traded. But with teams like the Blue Jays, Indians and Tigers all seemingly in need of one extra bat, Blanks could hold value on the trade market, especially since Carlos Pena has signed with Tampa. Blanks’ poor overall numbers the past two seasons give the Padres the luxury of waiting and seeing if he can turn things around, but one thing is certain — if Blanks is sent to Tucson to start 2012 and hits the way he hit in 2009 and the better part of 2011, the “free Kyle Blanks” campaign will start en masse.
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It’s hard not to see a AAAA profile here: high strike outs, medium walks, poor contact %, hits the ball hard on contact, pitch values showing a tendency to hit fastballs and not much else.
Plus, what if he only has PCL Power? (That’s the kind of power that hits home runs in the PCL but not the big leagues.)
I don’t know that I would really be too concerned with his power. He had 7 homers last year in 190 PAs, at PetCo. In his career he has 20 homers in 482 PAs. That’s 20 homer power in a pitcher’s park without regular playing time. I wouldn’t be surprised if that would play up elsewhere.
The Red Sox will trade for him if the price is right.
Yah, I was about to say, that seems like a no brainer for the right price. The Red Sox could definitely use him, and SD and Boston have a solid trading relationship in place.
I think the rest of your concerns are legitimate though.
He still has 20 HR and 2 WAR in 480 PA @ Petco. I wouldn’t call him an AAAA player: He has shown he can play at the big league level.
I wrote about him being a sleeper for our blog last year and I agree with you, I haven’t given up yet. Stats aside, if you watch him play, it really seems like if he gets a full(ish) season in good health, he will be a legitimate power threat. His minor league numbers support this. Guys don’t hit that many extra base hits in the minors and then just lose it in the big show. I hope he gets the opportunity to hit 25 bombs because I’m gonna snag him in lots of late rounds
… with the purchase of a Kyle Blanks of equal or least value?
Lesser. I meant lesser.
Blanks is a better fielder than he looks like he would be but I just can’t see him getting much play in right at Petco. Especially with Quentin in left. Maybin can cover some ground in center but not that much. I think there’s a much better chance of a Venable/Denorfia platoon in right. I don’t see much playing time in the majors for Blanks this year unless Quentin gets injured. Maybe if Guzman gets injured or traded.
The problem with trading Blanks right now is that his value is low. He is still young and I agree that he needs to play everyday. I think the kid is capable of .270/.330/.550 with 25+ hr’s if he played everyday, even at Petco.
You mean .450 SLG%, right?
Not really. A guy who swatted 14 xbh’s in August, and 19 in 148 PA’s in 2009 obviously has some serious power at his disposal. I’d go more towards .500, but I could see a peak of .550. His power and style is well suited for Petco, like other right-handed bats that trived there (S. Hairston, Hundley, etc.)
I’ll say this, whatever Quentin ends up hitting in SD in 2012, Blanks had the potential to do the same.
If Byrnes ships Blanks out like he did with Quentin right before he hit 36 Hr’s, I fully expect it to bite him in the rear again. You can imagine how bad things look if Quentin doesn’t do a ton, Blanks is dealt and thrives, while Castro re-emerges in Chicago… Blanks chills out in AAA for 3 months they get to keep him another year. He’s 25, those days should be behind us.
AJ Burnett for Kyle Blanks straight up. Do it, Cashmoney. Why do I think it’s a good move? Because AJ Burnett. And because I just saw this article about how there’s a player somewhere that should get traded.
Probably not going to happen, but going to the NL + around 15 starts in petco could make him at least effective again.
Blanks is my #1 obsession for being Lind’s desperately needed platoon partner. Probably not, though – wasting a bench spot on a platoon 1b/DH? Bartlett would be nice too off of the bench to soak up all the ABs given to McCoy, Nix, J-Mac and co. next year, and Valbuena this year. Below average, but better than these dudes’ replacement level. For Litsch (soft-tossing PETCO value!) and Cooper (back-up 1b who gets most his value from everything but raw power, a la Alonso)
Despite hitting far more line drives and popping to the infield half as much when playing outside of petco, Bank’s BABIP has been a ridiculously low .167/.254 the last 2 years, compared to home rates of .310 and .326. He even walks far more often at home.
A simple lack of sample distribution could easily explain this, making him a potential Adam Dunn if his rates normalize even slightly. That alone justifies every team making an offer on him, and hitting in a smaller park will emphasize that even further. That wont stop some from saying he “gets the heeby jeebies” or whatever and “cant play in a hostile environment”
Trade him to Boston.
Nice story. I wouldn’t discount his numbers in AA. Although the Texas League as a whole is a hitters league, the Wolff is one of the hardest parks to hit in. Also, the quality of pitching in the TL is as good if not better than pitching in the PCL and let’s not even talk about the parks on the west side.
I’m not sure that Venable and Blanks are connected in any way, unless Quentin can play RF, which isn’t a pretty sight.
In regards to the comment from Drakos, Blanks does cover ground better than most would think, but his technique is terrible. Which is part of the reason he needed TJ. He throws in left field like he is at 1B, he doesn’t get into proper position to make throws more often than not and let’s not forget about the foot injury.
I still like Blanks, but if he is going to play in Petco he needs to play 1B. The idea of him playing everyday in LF in a big park is an injury waiting to happen.
I would love for the Mets to make a trade for Blanks. If Bay can rebound a bit with the walls in, he can be dumped at the deadline for something. If he doesn’t rebound, bench him. After that, let Blanks play in LF after having spent the first half of the season getting work in AAA. Blanks in Duda in LF and RF respectively might be a mediocre defense, but could provide some serious pop.
Mediocre defense? I’d guess historically bad. At the corners. Mostly in right.
I almost commented about freeing Kyle Blanks on another article with respect to Ryan Howard – it seems the Phillies could use him a 1B while Howard’s out and move him to LF or platoon vs LHPs when Howard gets back if Blanks hits well. Maybe the Reds should’ve tried to get him in the Latos package.
Any AL team that could get him 500 PAs rotating through 1B/LF/DH should try to get him in my opinion. He’s the only young hitter that has seemed pretty unfazed by Petco. He could easily hit 30 HRs playing every day in most parks, especially if he improves his contact. His fielding is pretty good for his size, and he should be able to cut it as a decent corner OF (i.e., no worse than average) in a smaller park.
The A’s. He can be part of the first ever 14 man platoon.
He can face lefties during afternoon games on Tuesdays, Friday and when it rains in Vancouver.
We’re basically looking at Blanks in 25 game samples. Or … we’re looking at him in 150 PA chunks (over 3 seasons). A lot can influence that, such as opponents, parks, etc.
We can’t just remove a bad month and then make a projection for the next season … or at least we have to do that for every player, since few players have good month after good month, etc. Playing after injuries or playing part time are often things young players (and non-starters) have to deal with. It’s included in everyone’s data.
… and it might be something else.
While admitting that it is a small sample spread out over 3 seasons, at 482 career PA, he’s a .326 wOBA and has been worth 2.0 WAR.
IMHO, these are the guys that are “market inefficiencies”. I usually point out Freese, Jay, and Craig as valuable pieces as they put up 2-3 WAR for cheap. You may not bank of them being productive for 5-7 years or even call them “prospects”, but you use them while they are productive (and then cut ties quickly when they aren’t). low risk, good reward players.
Looking at Blanks’ 2009, he hit 50% fly balls, and had a HR/FB rate of 21+%. I would have to consider that a fluke. We’re talking elite HR/FB rates there, and a high % of fly balls. With HR/FB rates in the 12-13% range, he’s far less productive, especially if you look at 12.5 IFF rate he put up in 2011.
You look at Blanks’ 2009 and I think you have to think “Shane Spencer” or “Kevin Maas” when looking at his BABIP, HR/FB, FB%, etc.
At this point, I think weighting his 3 seasons with the 5/3/1 rating and you probably get an accurate portrayal of his realistic production. When you do that, you still get a ~2 WAR player (perhaps slightly better).
He should be playing somewhere.
I agree his 3 season total is more representative than just his 2009, but I also think he could improve somewhat with experience, health and regular playing time.
Lots of numbers being thrown around here. See ball, hit ball, otherwise enjoy Tucson.
Blanks isn’t a 4-A guy… His MiLB numbers are better than Adrian’s, he basically never exceeded the 100 K threshold until he got to the bigs (so he has a track record of good contact-ability). I’m a HUGE Blanks fan.
While it’s common narrative in the Blanks story to blame the lousy 2010 star on the injury, that’s just not true. Blanks has been very clear that the timing problems he had at the plate through the first two months were not related to the elbow.
I’m a big fan of Blanks’ future but it appears that SD is doing everything they can to block him. Sometimes teams do this and it turns out that the player is a AAAA player. But I’m hoping the twins would snatch him up cheap.
I think the people at notgraphs can find a better nickname for Mark Kotsay than “Bad Penny.”
Agreed. Surely that name is more suited to Brad Penny?
Is there any realistic chance the Brewers get Kyle Blanks? He has to be better than Mat Gamel
For all the platoon talk, my recollection is that, throughout his career, Blanks has typically exhibited a reverse split, faring better vs. righties. I can’t find minor league split data at the moment to back up that claim, but assuming it’s at the level of some sort of statistical significance, it may be make it that much harder for Blanks to make the Pads’ roster.
I would be impressed if Dave Dombrowski rolled the dice on a young guy like Blanks over signing an old warhorse in the wake of the VMart injury. However I suspect Tigers’ fans will be left watching the stylings of Raul Ibanez or Johnny Damon. Not horrible ideas…just not very exciting solutions.
A trade with Boston would have made sense… before they traded away Jed Lowrie. Otherwise you guys have nothing we want