Comments on: Friar Vizquel

By: Aaron B.

Aaron B. — Fri, 16 Jan 2009 07:10:51 +0000

MGL posted Vizquel’s sUZR’s last season:

http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/uzr_and_the_2008_gold_glove_awards/#7

Pretty insane.

By: Eric Seidman

Eric Seidman — Fri, 16 Jan 2009 04:58:00 +0000

And if it seems that he is more washed up than the numbers suggest, see what a different percentile projection would be. Perhaps you think he’ll play 140 games at 580 PA, but be worth -22 runs offensively and just +6 runs on defense. This would make him:

-22+19+7+6 = +10, or +1.0 wins, a $4.5 FMV.

By: Eric Seidman

Eric Seidman — Fri, 16 Jan 2009 04:55:10 +0000

WY, it comes from evaluating players above the replacement baseline as opposed to the average baseline. For instance, Vizquel projects to -17 runs below AVG and +9 runs fielding above AVG. These are numbers above/below average. With the positional adjustment taken into account (+9 at SS is VASTLY better than +9 anywhere else), Vizquel is roughly -1 runs below average, or -0.1 wins below average.

However, we are not evaluating him relative to the league average. Instead, we evaluate players above the replacement level. An average player is approximately 20 runs above a replacement level player, because even league average or slightly below average players have value.

The 20 runs is for 600 PA, so it is prorates for PA numbers below that. Vizquel has been right around +19 runs in the past for this adjustment. If we add that to the -1 runs below average, we get +18 runs above replacement, or +1.8 wins. At $4.5 mil/win, 4.5*1.8 = ~8 mil. If he was a +9 in LF, or 1B, his value would greatly diminish. Because he is still playing very good defense at the toughest non-catcher position, his offense is almost cancelled out.

The +20 runs per 600 PA, though is essentially the conversion rate to go from average as a baseline to replacement level. In Vizquel’s case, he was -22 runs offensively below average. If he ended up breaking even with fielding and positional adjustment (say -7 fielding, +7 adjustment), then his actual value would be the -22 runs adjusted to be above/below replacement level, not average. So, +20 runs roughly would be added. It’s really just the way to look at players above a different baseline.

An average player is +20 runs per 600 PA better than a replacement player. If someone is putrid offensively in those 600 PA, then the lack of offensive skill will cancel out with the +20 adjustment.

By: WY

WY — Fri, 16 Jan 2009 04:31:02 +0000

I don’t understand why there is value over replacement in amassing plate appearances with such poor numbers. Can you explain this differently? No offense, but I just feel like there is something fishy when a player as apparently finished (or close to it) as Vizquel is said to have a fair market value of $8 million.

By: Brian Cartwright

Brian Cartwright — Fri, 16 Jan 2009 04:15:29 +0000

Eric, I meant his range, his ability to keep grounders from being outfield hits is just a hair below average. His ability to turn balls he gets to into outs is still outstanding. Overall, those two combined, make him well above average.

By: Eric Seidman

Eric Seidman — Fri, 16 Jan 2009 02:20:08 +0000

I would sure hope so. The $8 mil is his fair market value assuming he plays 140 games at around 580 PA, with -17 hitting and +9 fielding at SS. Doesn’t mean he’ll get anything near that, but that’s what his +1.8 WAR would merit.

By: Eric Seidman

Eric Seidman — Fri, 16 Jan 2009 02:19:08 +0000

Haha, yeah, duly noted.

By: Rally

Rally — Fri, 16 Jan 2009 02:18:55 +0000

1 year 8 million?

I’m pretty sure if the Padres offered him a starting job and anything over 1 million he’s sign.

By: Eric Seidman

Eric Seidman — Fri, 16 Jan 2009 02:18:51 +0000

+10, +6, +20, +5 in UZR over the last four seasons. Not sure how that’s below average. He isn’t as good as he was before but he is still above average.

Via + – if you don’t like UZR, +7, +20, +9 over the last three years.

By: Brian Cartwright

Brian Cartwright — Fri, 16 Jan 2009 01:28:40 +0000

Vizquel’s range, as defined by his ability to prevent ground ball hits going to the outfield, has slipped slightly each of the past five seasons, to where he is now slightly below average. However, he remains one of the most sure handed shortsops, in the top 5 in not allowing infield hits or runners reaching on errors.