From Tragedy to Farce: The Return of Yuni
Karl Marx famously opens his Eighteenth Brumaire of Louis Bonaparte by writing that “Hegel remarks somewhere that all great world-historic facts and personages appear, so to speak, twice. He forgot to add: the first time as tragedy, the second time as farce.” While the attribution to Hegel is somewhat dubious, the application to yesterday’s events is all too applicable.
Late yesterday afternoon, when the Kansas City Royals were rumored to have agreed to a one-year, $2 million deal with Zombie Edgar Renteria, the reaction was mixed with approval, disapproval, and shrugs. But, as Buddy Bell once said, things can always get worse: it turned out the Renteria report was false, and the Royals had given a $2 million deal for 2012 (with incentives; no word on whether it includes the traditional Royals mutual option) to the man they had paid $2 million not to play for them in 2011: Yuniesky Betancourt. The Twitter reaction among Royals fans was swift and changing — from fury to laughter to, in some cases, apology. In the space of minutes things indeed moved from tragedy to farce (I heard somewhere that inserting historical references into posts gets you great gigs down the road). But if the facts surrounding the case of the Betancourt Farce are fairly plain for all to see, their “meaning” for the future of the the Dayton Moore-led Kansas Royals is not so clear.
Beginning with the obvious: Yuniesky “And Plus Hands” Betancourt is a terrible major-league baseball player (I added “major league” because obviously people might otherwise read this and think I was saying he couldn’t even hang with Little Leaguers. Happens all the time.). There is no need to repeat his litany of failure at length. His 2009 season split between Seattle and Kansas City was one of the worst seasons in recent memory. Somehow, he remained a full-time player in 2010 for the Royals (were he was almost worth one win in full-time play, which somehow seemed to be a “good” year for him). In 2011, he was the poison pill in the Zack Greinke trade with Milwaukee, where he managed half-a-win above replacement. Much attention has focused on Betancourt’s horrible defense, and rightly so — it is obvious without even looking at the numbers that he is only nominally a shortstop, negating whatever positional adjustment one deems appropriate. However, this sometimes seems to gloss over how horrible his bat is. Hey, he doesn’t strike out much! But he never walks, and has little power (the occasional brief surge notwithstanding). Remember his “miracle” 2010? His wOBA was .300. It was .271 in 2009 and .278 this past season. Oliver projects him to hit for a .279 wOBA in 2012. Betancourt projects at around replacement level. I suppose one could say he could project as 0.5 WAR over a full-season, but that is both pushing it and quibbling over details given the level of “precision” one expects in projected total value. Basically, the Royals just gave away $2 million for no reason. The Best Farm System Ever can’t produce a league-minimum utility infielder?
Half-hearted “defenses” of the deal have been bandied about. After all, didn’t other replacement level utility players (the role fro which Betancourt is slated) like John McDonald and Willie Bloomquist get similar, or even more guaranteed money? This is true, but if comparisons to those hilariously silly deals are hardly compliments to the Betancourt contract. Another potential response is that the Royals did not have any better options for the bench. However, 1) that misses the point of replacement level, 2) leaves aside the money issue, 3) ignores the fact the Betancourt may be one of the few players in baseball as bad or worse than Chris Getz, and 4) conveniently leaves aside that the Royals traded a superior player to Betancourt in Mike Aviles to Boston for 5) a superior player to Betancourt in Yamaico Navarro, who was then traded for two “interesting” (ahem) pitching prospects earlier this off-season. One could be generous to Betancourt and say that Aviles and Navarra are just as bad with the glove, but they both project as something like .300 wOBA hitters, about 10 runs better than Betancourt over a full-season.
There are two other rationalizations worth addressing. The first is that Betancourt will mostly be backing up second and third base, where he will not be as bad defensively as he is at shortstop. This is a fairly logical assumption, but a) the decrease in defensive “responsibility” is matched by an increased burden on his bat, and more importantly b) Betancourt has only played 63 innings at second in the majors way back in 2005, and has never played at third. Yes, shortstop is more difficult, but the successful transition to being better at second and third is not a given, and Betancourt is, shall we say, not reputed to have the sort of work ethic that would make that transition smooth.
Finally, perhaps my favorite “defense” Yuni II: The Electric Boogaloo is that “the Royals hardly ever use their bench, so he won’t play that much.” Royals manager Ned Yost did rarely use his bench last season, but while the training staff does seem to have done a good job keeping guys healthy in 2011, it also seems like that string of luck is unlikely to continue. In addition, that assumes that both Mike Moustakas and (especially) Johnny Giavotella will be just fine next year and not need to get sent down if they struggle. Finally, it seems really odd to defend any signing, let alone one for a utility player being guaranteed $2 million, by saying “he will hardly ever play.” That sounds more like a job for a league-minimum player than player who will be 30, no useful baseball skills, upside, and not even the silly reputation for being a “good clubhouse guy” like Willie Bloomquist or John McDonald.
But this post is not intended as another anti-Betancourt rant against general manager Dayton Moore. Yes, Betancourt is terrible and the signing is pointless at best. Yes, it reflects poorly on Moore’s abilities with respect to both roster construction and evaluating talent that can drink legally in the United States. However, while I have written plenty of snarky rants along those lines about Moore and other general managers, my attitude has shifted a bit. It is not just that in the larger scheme of things, flushing $2 million dollars on a worthless bench player down the toilet really is not that big of a deal. Indeed, that “defense” sort of misses the point — this signing can be see as just another decision in a string of bad decisions that points to a bad general conception of how to build a major-league roster on Moore’s part (a string that is only mitigated, not eliminated, by the success of Jeff Francoeur and Melky Cabrera in 2011).
However, at the risk of making this post too narcissistic, my attitude about such matters has shifted. While I still think that just having the Best System Ever is not enough to build a winning team if the front office consistently makes poor decisions in other areas, I am not sure that Dayton Moore has crossed the line yet. In the past I was, but while this is more evidence that Moore has not learned as much as Royals fans might hope, he is not the only general manager who seems to have these sorts of problems. It is not just unsuccessful GMs, either. Kevin Towers, as previously mentioned, made the playoffs this last season (and had some success as Padres GM, as well) and went ahead and made bad deals for Bloomquist, McDonald, and then Jason Kubel (of course, most of the team Towers took to the 2011 playoffs was not “his.”) Internet Superstar Alex Anthopolous has made a number of impressive moves, and while it is still early on, he seems to generally be moving the Jays in the right direction. However, he voluntarily traded for an arbitration-eligible Jeff Mathis, one of the few players in baseball that I would argue are clearly worse than Betancourt. That does not mean he cannot make the Jays winners. Perhaps my favorite “upside” comparison for the Dayton Moore Royals are the Dan O’Dowd Rockies. The parallel is not perfect, but it is there. The Rockies’ core was initially built from the inside or by trading home-grown players, and they are a pretty good team who have managed to make the playoffs or contend a reasonable number of times the past few seasons. They have managed to do this despite the team’s curious decision making: constantly burying Chris Iannetta to the point of devaluing him when they traded him, the Brad Hawpe fetish, Ty Wigginton, wasting Seth Smith (and now the Cuddyer deal), Melvin Mora, Casey Blake and so on. They have made good decisions, as well, but overall, without getting into every detail, the Rockies have managed to be a pretty good franchise despite a consistent pattern of sub-optimal decision making. Heck, the Giants won the 2010 World Series with a good young core of pitchers despite years of terrible decisions by Brian Sabean.
That is not to say that Dayton Moore is sure to succeed in Kansas City, or that the Betancourt deal is “no big deal.” (This is professional sports, put in “perspective,” nothing is a “big deal.”) This Betancourt deal is a bad decision that reflects poorly on Moore. However, the Royals current front office is far from the only one to make these sorts of baffling decisions, and many of those who have done so and continue to do so have found a decent amount of success. This deal is discouraging, but even if Betancourt’s return is a farcical recapitulation of the worst of the Dayton Moore Era, it does not mean the Royals under his leadership are doomed.
Or perhaps I am just mellowing with age.
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If Betancourt truly is better than Jeff Mathis (and he probably is), the Royals should also teach Betancourt to be their backup catcher.
I’m an AA apologist but I like the Mathis move. As a backup catcher who is expected to catch about 30 games why not go for a really good defensive catcher. Jose Molina was great in that role last year. Also if Arencibia gets hurt you are not looking at a Mauer-Butera situation because D’Arnaud would be the primary replacement. So you get a veteran catcher, who knows his role and can mentor JP as well as handle the pitching staff in his primary role as a backup catcher. If not Mathis, then who are you bringing in? Varitek? At least Mathis can still throw someone out!
With that last sentence, you’re just begging someone to post links to that video in which Mathis throws to first as the runner slides into second.
Kidding aside, I actually agree with you. The recent catcher studies provide a little insight into why Sciosia has such a man-crush on Mathis despite the pathetic bat. Mathis does seem to have some decent catching skills, that while not overcoming his anemic offense, will at least serve as an defensive example for JPA.
Mathis didn’t cost the Jays anything to acquire and actually fills a roster hole without blocking D’Arnaud in future years. Who knows, perhaps the Jays can catch lightning in a bottle and fix Mathis’s swing too.
“Mathis didn’t cost the Jays anything to acquire”
False.
“and actually fills a roster hole without blocking D’Arnaud in future years”
As if there aren’t dozens of backup catchers of whom this would also be true that wouldn’t have cost millions of dollars and a pitcher.
There’s this ridiculous site that says he was worth $6M over the last two years!
Well, replacement level shortstops going into their 30s age like wine.
I get it. But either their player valuations are flawed or Yuni isnt, as of today, a train wreck of a SS. Just asking for some consistency. Is he a “worthless bench player” or is he worth $3M or so, but in decline (which, incidentally, might just put him right around $2M)?
^Are you serious right now? New, hopefully? “He has been worth ~$6M over the last two seasons” is a descriptive statement that is completely compatible with the claim that he is “a worthless bench player”.
Presumably to serve some agenda you have with the valuation system here, you chose to mention Betancourt’s last 2 years without mentioning anything else. But that other data is necessary when projecting his future performance and just 3 seasons ago Betancourt was worth -2.1 WAR. Even if you go back 4 seasons, he is a negative-value asset (i.e. worthless).
What you’re doing is called cherry picking and it doesn’t imply a “flaw” in any system. 0 WAR is an easy projection for Betancourt. He’s as likely to have negative value as he is to be slightly in the black. Moreover, even if he was projected to be worth something like .2 WAR, that would only confirm that the value estimation system is in fact a system of value estimation and isn’t perfectly precise.
Sorry if this is a bit terse, but I’m a little weary of people picking a couple of numbers out of a pile and attempting a gotcha.
NS:
Why cherry pick just three or four seasons back? Why not include his entire career as an everyday SS (six years)? Because it will show he has averaged 0.47 WAR per season?
310/326/500 in two ’11 playoff series.. just saying
Rusty: because most projection systems use the previous 3-4 years of data. And even if you go farther back than that, years 5+ would have very little weight in the projections.
Jordan:
I understand that, but when a player has had at least 0.4 WAR in six out of seven seasons, and the one negative WAR season was three years ago I think it’s rational for the Royals to view Yuniesky as likely to reach 0.4 WAR. I think the GM is saying that ’09 was an outlier for Betancourt. In no other season (even the two most recent seasons, which weigh much heavier than performance from three years ago) was Betancourt as inept in the field and at the plate (and on the base path!). Plus, the driving force behind his terrible UZR in ’09 was his range and that problem seems to have been fixed.
Yuniesky was awful last season and I’ll bet he’s just as bad, and not worse, this season. Thus making him worth $2M. I just can’t buy into the logic that a guy worth $6M over the last two seasons isn’t worth a $2M contract because of his one amazingly bad season during his bad to mediocre seven year career. This isn’t like with Jason Kubel where the guy has consistently been worse than what he just got paid. I know it sucks because Betancourt is more than just a player to a lot of fans.
Just because he was ‘worth’ something doesn’t mean you pay him it when you can use a fungible AAAA-type player and pay him less than a million.
It’s not a flaw of the valuation system, it is a difference between what people are worth on paper and what they are worth with real dollars. One is down in the abstract based on all free agent players the other based on case by case market conditions effected by labor agreements, supply, and demand.
Very good point. But doesn’t that suggest a problem with replacement level?
This was foretold in the Heavens, written in the stars.
It is… Destiny.
I thought my mind had escaped that. Boooo
I guess everyone is speechless.
The Marx reference was quite fitting – I definitely busted out laughing when I heard about this deal.
A spectre in haunting Kansas City – the spectre of Betancourt…
“Yuniesky “And Plus Hands” Betancourt is a terrible baseball player.”
I think you should change this to ‘terrible major league baseball player’ as he as at least proved to be a good enough baseball player to be in the majors for almost 1000 games and somehow made the majors at age 23 with just over 100 games in the minors. Whether it is right to have him on a MLB team or not is debatable, but it seems more than a little harsh to claim he is straight out ‘terrible’.
Interesting that this site shows him as being worth about $2 – 3 mil a year and yet when he gets paid that amount, it is a horrible move.
Labeling MLB players as “terrible baseball player(s)” is something that bothers me as well and have noticed it being stated with more frequency on Fangraphs. In reality, to even get a cup of coffee in the majors a player is a fantastic baseball player. It is the common person who couldn’t get past high school that is a terrible baseball player. It is nitpicking, but I agree that “terrible major league baseball player” is a more apt description although labeling any player that has put up positive value in every season except one as terrible is a bit harsh IMO.
I think it’s clear that when someone calls a MLB player a “bad player” they are comparing them to their peers, not all humans.
Sorry, but Yuni is the bogeyman… if the Royals had signed any other crappy middle infielder nobody would really care.
Yes, the problem is that Yuni is “been there, done that” and you wouldn’t get that if they’d signed a random AAAA infielder or other aging utility infielder.
no. the problem is that they could’ve signed someone as good as Yuni for league minimum, so they basically just threw away $1.5M
moore had a very strong 2010 offseason. he ended up getting 11 MM of surplus value from a FA (francoeur) and turned a 1.25 MM FA (cabrera) into 18 MM surplus value and then into jonathan sanchez. throw in the greinke haul…
i mean, at the royals place on the win curve, isn’t the 2010 offseaon exactly the kind of decision making you want to see from a GM in his spot?
And so far in 2011 he has:
-Made a good trade for a starting pitcher who will be here for one year in exchange for a player they didn’t need, assuming Lorenzo Cain figures out how to hit a slider;
-Signed two pitchers they don’t need and who will probably have almost no trade value at any point before their contracts are up;
-Completely alienated an organizational icon and all the fans who feel organizational icons, few of them that there are, should be treated with upmost respect;
-Offered arbitration to three bench players who are the definition of replacement level, when they had plenty of options at all three positions (before we even get into how many similar players there are out there every year available to sign minor league deals);
-Signed Yuniesky Betancourt.
I have defended Dayton Moore for a long time. But when you follow up a good offseason with one like this one the next year, don’t we need to question whether or not last year was just complete, blind luck? The little mistakes are whatever, but essentially spitting in Frank White’s face and signing Betancourt for real money are the kinds of stomach-churning moves that has put him on thin ice for me.
you’re completely right about Frank White. no argument there.
I’m no Dayton Moore apologist and I don’t get this Yuni move at all, but I don’t think that the blame for the Frank White debacle can be laid solely on Moore’s shoulders. He may have had some hand in it but I don’t think he’s the one who decided one day that Frank White should walk.
The Casey Blake Signing was actually a smart move, given his average hitting ability for the anemic 3b position, the lack of capable options on the Rockies’ roster, and the modest 3 million dollar contract
I agree…
Also, I don’t know if you can pin the Iannetta treatment on O’Dowd. At some level, you have to let the manager manage and if he won’t play Iannetta, you are probably better off trading him now rather than a year from now when his trade value is even lower.
On the other hand, I have no defense of Wigginton and don’t understand why he signed Cuddyer and have no idea how the Seth Smith saga can end up being a good thing for the Rockies.
I’m baaaack!
this article basically says “there have been worst signings”
sure, but this one still sucks
“Yes, Betancourt is terrible and the signing is pointless at best.”
Did you miss that line in the article?
JAJAJAJAJA?!?!?!?
Sometimes this community throws facts to the side in exchanged for predetermined opinions. Here are the facts. Yuni is durable and is relatively cheap. Using popular method of war/dollars Yuni is going to be paid for .4 WAR production. For all but 1 year of his 7 year career he has equaled or exceeded this production. So now data from a single season 2 years ago holds the most weight in evaluating future performance? I get that the royals and Yuni are an easy target but comon people I expect better.
Playing a lot has almost no value when you provide negative or little value when you do play.
So WAR is the value measure of choice on Fangraphs except for Yuni, in which case it is not a valid measure? The man just pointed out that if you measure by WAR, he’s exceeded the value of his current salary every year but 1 in the last 7. So which is it? Either WAR is a valid measure and Yuni in fact does have positive value or it’s not a valid measure and should be taken off the stat pages of this site.
Projection based on his last 3 (or 4) seasons yields this result: 0 WAR. How much is that worth?
It is you people who are [deliberately?] failing to understand how this works that are cherry picking data. Specifically, you are omitting the data from a recent season and trying to cobble together a phantom projection based on the data you prefer.
Here and everywhere else, that’s goofy BS.
Based on classic projections Yuni is a 0 win player. Here’s his WAR by season:
0.5
1.7
1.5
0.4
-2.1
0.9
0.4
According to reports, in his -2.1 season, and the season before, Yuni wasn’t dedicated, didn’t play hard, and was out of shape (for him). That showed up in his range for UZR. If the Royals think they know Yuni and they know he’s committed to being the 0.5 win player he is, then he’s worth $2M. Projections are a nice starting point, but they aren’t the final answer.
So a single negative season outweighs 6 positive ones? Isn’t this the site that think sample size is written in those tablets of stone somewhere?
Yuni has also been giving around 1300 innings and 550 at bats for that0.4 – 0.5 WAR average. If he’s going to be a reserve, you have to scale that for reserve level playing time. Is he worth $2 M the past couple years? Sure, if you want to give him enough playing time for it. Is he worth $2 M to be a half time player, not on a per rate basis.
ReYunited and it feels so good.
I guess I understand why a deal involving Yuni gets more publicity, but the Giants resigning Mota for $1M was just as bad and got no mention anywhere.
It’s hard to understand the…revulsion a lot of fans have for Yuni until you watch him play regularly. I have never seen a lazier player in the field. I watched almost every game the Brewers played last year and I don’t think I ever once saw him dive for a ball. He makes terrible errors on easy plays and has the range of a dead bird. He wouldn’t take a walk if it was given to him, swinging often on bad pitches early in the count so he can make weak contact on 0-2 or 1-2.
Sure by WAR he might possibly be “worth” two million, but if you can get the same production from a replacement player at 1/4 the cost, you’d do that, wouldn’t you? Would you rather have 1.5 mil in your pocket or would you rather not?
He’ll probably be traded to the Giants.