Comments on: Fukudome Lives

By: Joe R

Joe R — Wed, 30 Sep 2009 17:38:30 +0000

Looks like it is what it is with Fukudome given his steady BABIP in his first 2 years, a .260/.370/.420 type guy. Obviously a good CF, but not exactly what the Cubs thought they would get.

By: Rob in CT

Rob in CT — Wed, 30 Sep 2009 17:03:43 +0000

As the season draws to a close, Fukudome has a .347 wOBA and has been good for 2.4 WAR. It now does appear that Fukudome’s brutal 2nd half of 2008 was a nasty slump (or, if you prefer, an adjustment/counter-adjustment period).

He’s got the on-base skills Dave was talking about, though he’s not hitting for much power. I remain a bit puzzled by Dave’s use of ~55PAs as indicative of… much of anything, but in the end he appears to have been correct.

By: Alireza

Alireza — Fri, 24 Apr 2009 22:47:54 +0000

Much of Fukudome’s value lies in his ability to put up a big OBP and play defense. He had 3 consecutive seasons over .430 OBP in Japan, which is stellar. To just be able to put up something between .380 and .410 makes him very valuable. His defensive numbers this year aren’t great, but they are a small sample size. Even in RF, a .800 OPS driven by a .400 OBP with the 13.1 UZR Fukudome put up last year would make him a valuable piece. If he can put up a UZR between 0 and 5 in CF with taht same .800 OPS and .400 OBP, he is worth significantly more than he is paid.

By: Rob in CT

Rob in CT — Thu, 23 Apr 2009 20:15:20 +0000

How silly of me to suggest that, at the end of this season, perhaps a review of Fukudome’s overall performance, as a whole, without ad hoc conjectures to explain random patterns in the data, might well tell a different story.

Gosh, philosofool, thanks for setting me straight!

By: philosofool

philosofool — Thu, 23 Apr 2009 17:02:58 +0000

If by same analysis you mean “look at his past performance, as a whole, without ad hoc conjectures to explain random patterns in the data” then the answer is “yes” we can use the same analysis. Let’s do that: Melky Cabrera has 1600 PA sample of MLB performance with a .711 OPS. Therefore, he’s a terrible hitter.

That’s not what you’e done in the above silly comment and you either ignored or failed to understand the argument of the original post.

By: Rob in CT

Rob in CT — Thu, 23 Apr 2009 15:40:13 +0000

Doesn’t this same analysis basically apply to Melky Cabrera? Hot April ‘08, terrible the rest of the year. Presently rockin’ a great line (that represents a grand total of 7 hits – 4HRs). Hey, look at that! Melky’s actually a good player!

No, he’s not. He’s just hot right now. And it’s entirely possible the same is true of Fukudome (who, regardless, is the superior player).

By: fonteYES

fonteYES — Thu, 23 Apr 2009 15:00:36 +0000

Fair enough Cpebbles. I probably overreacted to your comment for some reason or another. Your point is well taken that pitching Fukudome low and over the inside portion of plate (i.e. not the the corners) is not a great idea. And that Wainwright pitch was pretty fat.

By: Brian Cartwright

Brian Cartwright — Thu, 23 Apr 2009 07:41:54 +0000

Oliver’s unregressed MLEs
year age ba ob sa woba
2002 25 304 353 444 349
2003 26 258 331 461 341
2004 27 225 299 424 313*
2005 28 277 360 458 357
2006 29 296 365 502 374
2007 30 243 363 383 338*
2008 31 252 344 367 321 Cubs

In his two down years in Japan he had fewer ABs than normal. I know he missed a lot of 2007 with an elbow injury, I would guess he was hurt in 2004 also.

If Fukudome can put up a 350-360 wOBA in cf, that would be very good, above average but not much in rf. His Japanese stats show a guy who can hit 45-50 do+tr, 11-15 hr. He did not show that kind of power last year, but he might rebound, but at age 32 he’s past the general peak.

By: JoRo

JoRo — Thu, 23 Apr 2009 07:15:32 +0000

Pitchers didn’t figure out Fukudome last year? It was just a 3 1/2 month slump? A slump in which he couldn’t make contract, couldn’t hit for power and couldn’t get on base. But just a slump. Really? What do you base that on? The fact that he’s hit well for two weeks in 2009? Sometimes hot streaks are just hot streaks. Why are the last 3 1/2 months in 2008 just a slump while the first two weeks of good hitting are the real deal?

By: cpebbles

cpebbles — Thu, 23 Apr 2009 06:46:39 +0000

I’m not trying to claim you can tell anything from a series’ worth of stats, and if I was his stats from that series were .385/.438/.846. What I’m saying is that the big difference I saw in him was that pitchers were attacking him with what seems to me to be a really poor gameplan, and they weren’t executing it anyway. It’s perfectly possible that other teams have pitched him well and that he’s driven some quality pitches, but in at least one of the series that supposedly proves he’s going to bust out, he was the beneficiary of some really awful pitching.