Grander than Sizemore?
Despite the Indians poor season, I believe there’s a pretty decent case to be made that Grady Sizemore has been the best player in the American League this year. He’s already gone 30-30 while playing a nifty center field, and his 3.09 WPA/LI is the best in the AL for an up-the-middle player. Ask pretty much anyone who the best CF in the AL is, and they’ll tell you it’s Sizemore.
They might not be right, however. I think, at some point, we have to consider whether Curtis Granderson might be the superior ballplayer right now (though the time he spent on the DL hurts his MVP chances). He doesn’t get the notoriety that Sizemore does, but he’s been an elite player for two years now. Here are some comparative graphs.
Sizemore was much better in 2006, but the last two years, Granderson has been as good or arguably better. He’s compiled 5.84 WPA/LI over 1,088 at-bats while Sizemore has racked up 5.31 WPA/LI over 1,176 at-bats. Despite playing a bit less, Granderson’s been more valuable offensively even on a counting stat basis. On a per at-bat basis, it hasn’t even been close.
We can’t ignore 2006, however. It happened, and it still matters. The up-to-date Marcel projections, which include the last three years of data, have Sizemore’s true talent level as at .284/.380/.503 and Granderson at .294/.372/.493. Very close, but a slight edge to Sizemore, thanks to the difference between their 2006 performances.
Both are considered to be quality defensive center fielders, and both have posted strong defensive numbers over the years. Granderson’s running a -10 in the Fielding Bible’s +/- system this year, but he was +20 last year and +12 the year before, so that’s probably just an outlier. Scouts love his defense, and until this year, the numbers had agreed. There’s no reason to believe that he’s suddenly turned into a problem with the glove.
So, if they’re basically equal offensively in true talent level, with Granderson being better the last two years, and there’s no compelling evidence to believe that Sizemore is superior defensively, how can we justify the belief that Sizemore is clearly the best CF in the AL?
I’m not saying Granderson’s definitely better, but I do think there’s a real argument to be made that he’s every bit as good as his more famous peer down in Cleveland.
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I have a quick question. How can Granderson have such an amazing FRAR (25) while being rated as below average by the Fielding Bible?
FRAR is useless.
It’s also important to note that the Fielding Bible isn’t saying that Granderson “is below average”, but instead, that he’s caught a below average number of flyballs this year. Like any statistic, there’s noise involved, and there’s more than usual with defensive numbers. Just as we wouldn’t say Cliff Lee is really the best pitcher in baseball right now, even though his ERA says he is, the Fielding Bible isn’t saying that Granderson is below average.
You’re ignoring that Sizemore has a sizable advantage on the bases this year (whereas Granderson had the advantage last year). Grady still hits lefties better, though to Granderson’s credit he has greatly improved his hitting against LHP.
I think that at the moment they are close to being equal in value (with Sizemore being a little bit better IMO), though going forward I’d predict Sizemore to put up better numbers because he’s younger.
Also, Dave, why wouldn’t you say that Cliff Lee is the best pitcher in baseball right now?
He is killing everyone else in WPA, and it’s not like he’s doing it with a fluky BABIP or bad peripherals; his HR/9 rate is fantastic, and he’s leading the league in K/BB ratio. Plus, his IP/GS is very good; he’s a guy who will give you 7+ IP every start.
Going into the future, sure, I’d take Halladay or Lincecum or Sabathia over Lee, but I think right now Lee is pitching better than just about anyone in all of baseball.
If the reason that Sizemore’s true talent level is 18 OPS points higher because of 2006, why are you suggesting it’s appropriate to throw it out? Also THT has both of Sizemore’s last 2 seasons as higher RC (which is supposed to be based on Base Runs now) than both of Granderson’s. Yes, its a lot closer than many thing, and there is an argument, but it’s still Sizemore.
Dave,
I am interested in the disparity between Sizemore’s and Granderson’s stolen bases. Both seem to swipe the bag at the above the requisite 2:1 SB/CS ratio. Sizemore averages nearly 4:1, and Granderson (due to an inhuman 26:1 2007 year) is even better. Is there any way to factor their success on the basepaths into an OPS-like number? Do the extra bases make Sizemore that much better of an all around player?
Also, does anyone know why Sizemore attempts the steal more often? Is he faster than Granderson?
csiems, Granderson does not have the green light very often because Leyland wants to give the big bats a chance to knock him in. He does not have blazing spreed but he is faster than average.
I’m a Tigers fan but I’ll be unbiased and say that Sizemore has a slight edge, mostly due to age. Granderson is very close though. The best news is that he hit lefties ok this year after really struggling against them last year.
Lee
Chip–
RC isn’t based on BaseRuns, they’re two separate things. They now base their Win Shares off of BaseRuns (instead of RC).
I’ve talked with some Tigers fans who definitely have noticed a decrease in Granderson’s range — I’d like to see what they have to say about him there.
If Grandy’s still a +20 run fielder and Sizemore’s in the +5 to +10 range, Granderson’s better. If Grandy’s really even down near Sizemore defensively, I’d still take Sizemore.
“Just as we wouldn’t say Cliff Lee is really the best pitcher in baseball right now…”
I would. “Cliff Lee is the best pitcher in baseball right now.” … There I said it.
and I am far from an Indians fan. I just appreciate great pitching when I see it.
Both great players, both have great future prospects. In the long run, Sizemore is likely to be more valuable because he is two years younger. While that’s accounted for in the updated Marcels, a typical aging pattern would suggest that Sizemore has more room to grow a few years down the line. Still, it’s so close that it’s hard to make the call one way or another.
I’m hoping we see a pennant race in the next few years where both CFs put their teams on their backs.
Thanks Lee. Still Sizemore beats Granderson in 07 and 08.
Chip, I’ve got Granderson better in 2007 thanks to his huge edge in fielding. For what it’s worth.
As a UK-ased Tribe fan, I found your blog on google and read a few of your other Tribe posts. I just added you to my Google News Reader. Keep up the good work. Look forward to reading more from you in the future.
If one takes a look at the Hardball Times rankings for best arms in baseball, which are not perfect but are the best empirical system we have right now, they will see that Sizemore does have the glaring weakness of a popgun for an arm. Granderson’s arm isn’t sparkling, but he is about 5 runs better than Sizemore, who isn’t much better than Juan Pierre.