Granderson’s Odd Season
Curtis Granderson hit a pair of home runs last night, giving him 16 on the season. That’s the same amount of home runs as Prince Fielder and Justin Morneau have. He’s seven bombs away from tying his career high for long balls in a season, and we’re not even to July yet.
The home runs have come at the expense of his doubles and triples. He has just nine non-HR extra base hits, compared to 39 last year and 61 (!) the year before. Usually, when you see an uptick in home runs accompanied by a significant decline in doubles and triples, you can see a big spike in HR/FB rate that explains the differences. However, here’s Granderson’s HR/FB rates by year:
2006: 11.7%
2007: 10.9%
2008: 12.3%
2009: 14.8%
Yea, 15% is a little higher than 12%, but this isn’t an increase of the magnitude that I was expecting. I was thinking something more along the lines of Raul Ibanez, who had a 10.7% HR/FB rate last and is at 25.3% this year. Granderson has just seen a modest change rather than a dramatic one, at least in terms of how far his fly balls are traveling.
No, the interesting change with Granderson isn’t in the distance of his fly balls, but instead the quantity. He’s basically stopped hitting the ball on the ground, posting a 28.2% GB% that is the sixth lowest in baseball. The change in the loft of his swing has led to significantly more balls in the air.
It hasn’t necessarily made him a better hitter overall, though. After posting a .374 wOBA last year, he’s at .366 in 2009. The fly balls come with a trade-off – more outs. His batting average on balls in play has dropped from .317 last year (and .330 for his career) down to .271, and it’s not just bad luck – extreme flyball hitters simply don’t post high BABIPs, because fly balls turn into outs a lot more often than ground balls do.
The average BABIP for the ten guys with a FB% over 50% is .263. Among that group, Granderson’s .271 BABIP actually ranks fourth, well ahead of guys like Dan Uggla, Jason Giambi, and Chris Young. As long as Granderson keeps hitting the ball in the air this often, we shouldn’t expect regression from his BABIP. However, the Tigers will probably take a little bit of a drop in batting average if Granderson hits 30+ home runs this year. Either way, he’s still a terrific player.
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He’s been a surprising power addition to my fantasy team, who is still stealing some bases. Awesome to have him on my team and good to know that he won’t be regressing much in the HR category given his HR/FB percentage!
He also refuses to hit the ball anywhere except the pull field. I don’t watch every game but i think i’ve seen him take one ball up the middle (and zero oposite way) since April. I can’t remember if he was this drastically a pull hitter in previous seasons or if this is a new thing. Is there a database on hit distribution anywhere?
One of his homeruns was to left center the other night. You’re not watching.
hittrackeronline.com has does a really cool job of tracking home run distributions. check it out.
Leyland just moved Granderson back to the leadoff spot, but wouldn’t his “new game” play better at the 5th spot in the order where he’s been playing of late?
this is what happens when a player gets older and stronger, and his line drives go over the fence instead of bouncing off of it
Great analysis!
Great work as always Dave, I’ve noticed this in Uggla’s game as well and hope that won’t affect his overall value too much. It would really depend on how well you keep your HR/FB rate. I also noticed Granderson’s LD% isn’t dropping, a definite good sign. Can you keep good value as a 50%+ flyball hitter, given the expected much worse BABIP and resulting increased outs?
A couple of years ago, Granderson started positioning his hands lower before beginning his swing – I remember reading some articles pointing to that as the reason for his breakout 20/20/20/20 season. Is it possible that he just keeps lowering his hands, thinking that more uppercut = better results?