Guessing the Terms of the Aramis Ramirez Deal
Former Chicago Cubs third baseman Aramis Ramirez will sign a three-year contract with the Milwaukee Brewers, reports Bruce Levine of ESPN Chicago.
No terms have been released. Let’s try and guess.
FanGraphs readers projected something in the vicinity of a three-year, $36 million deal for Ramirez in the beginning of November.
FanGraphs readers have projected Ramirez to be a 2.8-win player in 2012. Assuming a 0.5 WAR decline each season and 5% inflation each season on $5 million per win, we’d expect this:
Year WAR $/Win Salary 2012 2.8 5.00 $14.0 2013 2.3 5.25 $12.1 2014 1.8 5.52 $9.9 Total 6.9 ---- $36.0
So, in both caes, three years and $36 million — or an average annual value of $12 million — would appear to make sense.
UPDATE: Ken Rosenthal reports that the deal is in the $34M to $37M range.
Carson Cistulli says terrible things at The New Enthusiast.
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I would guess this probably signals the definitive end to Prince’s reign in Milwaukee.
And, potentially, the end of the Casey McGehee era, too. Not a “reign” exactly, for McGehee.
Will they move him to 1b?
Not this year. Eventually, I imagine.
I predict that the deal will be in the $34M to $37M range.
I think this will be a pretty good deal for the Brewers, especially since the 6.9 WAR for the three years seems to me more like a minimum for what his production will be. Obviously, there’s the chance for injury, but the injury that he had that really sapped his value in 2009/2010 was a fluke thing and not cronic. I see his true value closer to the 3.6 he put up last year then 2.8 that you have as the starting point. I wouldn’t be surprised if he gives the Brewers nine wins over the three years.
It will be tough to see A Ram playing for the brewers next year.
So at 4.5mil/win last year and with a rather obvious 11% inflation rate assumption, the natural thing to do is start 2012 with a 5mil baseline…
Well at least a bunch of analytical writers on a site like this haven’t bought into one man’s narrative of 5mil/WAR that he’s been pushing for 2 offseasons now. Good to see folks here better than that and not just throwing out round #’s based on no data
……………….. 3% …….. 5%
$4.5M/w .. $31.9M .. $32.4M
$5.0M/w .. $35.4M .. $36.0M
Worrying about the inflation rates used is a bit of a waste on *relatively* short and cheap contracts. The cost per win is a bit more, but still not a huge deal on contracts like these… Granted, I’m not going to disagree with the idea that we should be using the most accurate numbers available, rather than quick short-hand numbers.
On a 10-year contract for a player projected at 7 WAR next year — those assumptions make a much bigger difference;
……………….. 3% …….. 5%
$4.5M/w .. $239M .. $258M
$5.0M/w .. $265M .. $286M
…