Comments on: Hall Query: Todd Helton

By: Eric Seidman

Eric Seidman — Wed, 02 Jul 2008 14:12:06 +0000

Sal, definitely not comparing him to anyone. There’s a huge difference in saying Helton has comparable numbers to such and such and saying he has the ‘x’ highest behind just ‘insert players.’

I definitely agree Bonds is first ballot, or should be. RJ Anderson at Beyond the Box Score put something up recently showing that, in using WARP, Bonds makes the average hall of famer look like a replacement player.

By: Sal Paradise

Sal Paradise — Wed, 02 Jul 2008 03:42:23 +0000

Comparing Helton to Pujols, Ramirez and Bonds is a bit off, since they are (or should be) first ballot no-doubt hall of famers (PED nonsense notwithstanding). One of the other things to keep in mind is that the Coors hangover effect has also been documented. Had Helton been on another team, he may have had worse home stats, but his road splits would likely be higher than what was shown above.

If he plays good baseball for another 5 years (he’s probably no longer great), then we may be revisiting this issue with fewer doubts. For now I think it’s hard to say “Definitely no” as much as it is to say “Definitely yes”.

By: Mark Runsvold

Mark Runsvold — Tue, 01 Jul 2008 04:43:07 +0000

I think Chris is exactly right. Helton’s Hall case isn’t easy to dismiss, but it ultimately falls short. Helton may rival Bonds, Pujols, and Ramirez in raw rate stats, but his EqA falls well short (.307 vs. .355!, .344 and .326, respectively). Looking at BP’s translated batting statistics, Helton’s career is more reminiscent of someone like John Olerud–a very good player no doubt, but short of Hall of Fame-caliber.

By: Chris Miller

Chris Miller — Tue, 01 Jul 2008 03:24:01 +0000

I’m thinking w/ Helton, if you properly normalize for Coors, and factor in his 1B defense over the years, he falls short, but isn’t as far off as people would think.

By: Eric Seidman

Eric Seidman — Tue, 01 Jul 2008 02:38:36 +0000

Steve, yeah, players typically perform worse on the road than at home but what happens with Helton’s numbers, and Holliday’s last year, as well as several other Rockies players, is that their home numbers are otherworldly. So, even though their road numbers are well above average, they get dwarfed by the home numbers.

If I recall correctly, there was something recently that showed an average BA was .267-.269 at home and .261-.263 on the road. So a guy like Helton in his career is about 100 points better than average at home and 30 points better on the road.

By: Steve

Steve — Tue, 01 Jul 2008 02:17:48 +0000

I may be completely making up my following comment, but here goes.

Don’t players typically perform worse on road anyways? Is there a way yo look at Helton’s road numbers and inflate them to what they would be in a neutral park? Could one use factors that should not change depending on the park (K% & BB%). Though I suppose the thin air effects the movement on pitches therefore there could be an effect on K% and BB%.

I’m really just thinking out loud and Helton’s numbers seem quite different, more than just thin air.

I did just suffer a minor concussion so I might not be making a lot of sense.