Halladay Continues to Bedazzle
Roy Halladay pitches in an inexorable manner. Hell bent to record as many outs in as few pitches as mathematically possible. The possibility of Halladay topping 250 innings for the second time in his career is becoming a distinct reality in a rapid manner. After last night’s complete game – marking Halladay’s eighth on the season (his career high is nine) – the Doc is at 171 innings through 22 games started with a 2.21 ERA and a FIP around 2.80.
After going through Halladay’s first 22 starts in each of the past four seasons (as well as the 2003 season in which he topped 250 innings) I found that Halladay is actually outpitching himself. No, really. His 171 innings represents a six inning increase over his previous high through 22 starts which came last season. That 2.21 ERA is a half run per nine innings superior to his previous best (again, last season. Add that his FIP is still better than 2008, if only by about a tenth of a run and, well, Philadelphia is getting everything they could have hoped for and even more.
When Halladay is on the mound opposing teams cross the plate less often than a starving atheist; in 16 of his 22 starts Halladay has allowed two or fewer runs. Somehow, the Phillies are only 13-9 in his starts. That is almost a 60% win rate and certainly more enjoyable and respectable than the 17-16 record posted by the Royals in Zack Greinke starts last season. Still, it seems that the Phillies should be winning more often because Halladay isn’t just ERA padding with five-to-six inning outings, but consistently going deep and locking the other team down.
Winning only 60% instead of 65% of Halladay’s starts won’t cost the Phillies a playoff spot or anything – they’re still very much in the East race as well as the Wild Card race despite injuries galore – but it sure did damper any talk about 30 wins. With only 10-12 starts remaining, he may not even reach 20.
29
If it wasn’t obvious before this year, Roy Halladay is the best pitcher in baseball. He’s held a consistent standard of excellence in his career that none of his pitching peers have been able to touch.
I don’t have time to read the body of this article, but if Halladay continues to put shiny rhinestone decorations on everybody’s clothes, someone needs to have a talk with him.
this was actually my first thought.
What does this mean? “When Halladay is on the mound opposing teams cross the plate less often than a starving atheist”
What plates do starving atheists cross, what does that even mean? What does this have to do with baseball? Were you drinking when you wrote this? If not your sense of humor is F’n weird.
I think the idea is that if you’re starving you don’t come across a ton of plates and if you’re an atheist you certainly wouldn’t cross one you did see. I don’t know if that’s correct, but under that interpretation I basically lost my shit, so kudos.
Wish you were here, so I could pat you on the head.
Seen this metaphor before, too. Laaaame.
Catholics make the sign of the CROSS when they pray before they eat food off of a PLATE. “Crossing the plate”.
So, an atheist wouldn’t “cross” and a starving person would not encounter many plates.
He’s saying “it’s a rare occurrence”.
*grin*
A gluttonous atheist wouldn’t be crossing any plates either. Nor a starving theist.
A really annoying use of language, really. Especially for a site like this.
Also RJ: cool down on the semi-colons.
I think ” gross exagerration” is an accepted writing device to make a point, on the internet.
Sometimes it’s really funny and entertaining, sometimes not as much.
I mean “this guy strikes out more than Screech at a convent.” Everybody strikes out at a convent, but that’s not exaggeration enough, y’know?
“Also RJ: cool down on the semi-colons.”
There is a sum total of one semicolon in RJ’s article. Your objection has been noted…
(and also summarily rejected)
I agree. A starving athiest might even be driven to cross the plate. It’s not a gross exaggeration, it’s two kinds of (subtly different) exaggeration that confuse the metaphor.
@ Jason B
I saw him use a semi-colon in another article. It seems to be a writing device he overuses. My thing with semi-colons is to never use them if you don’t need to. Sorry to get pedantic, but I don’t think he needs to in that case.
Ahh Doc, how we miss you.
Given some of the injuries the Philles have sustained and trading away Cliff Lee obviously looks bad I have to ask, are the Jays actually a better team this year?
*the better team
No, they are not a better team or the better team.
Nothing against Halladay – best pitcher in baseball. But isn’t a 0.5 run drop in ERA about what’s expected when moving from AL to NL? I’m not trying to say he’s bad, just that this is not an aberration. He’s always been this good.
q, is right. What in God’s name is that joke supposed to imply?
The plate where they hold the Communion for distribution?
Because, and I don’t mean to let you down here, there are many, many other sources of food in this world, and Christians don’t rely on that for a meal, either.
Unless you mean like saying blessing at a table… In which case you’re kind of missing the point again because no one in the world would really see any benefit for blessing a plate and a plate alone…
This one needs an explanation.
Wow, when half of the comments are about a weak phrase, you know there’s not a lot of meat to the article (Sorry RJ).
Is the lower ERA due to league change, or quality of opposition? What’s the standard change in ERA due to league change?
Is the lower pitch counts due to the pitcher being in the lineup? I’m sure you guys have access to “pitches per batter by lineup slot”, or something like that.
Also, I thought “Hellbent” was one word, and IMO it would have been better used in conjunction with the “crossing the plate” line.
“Halladay is Hellbent on efficiency, while opponents cross the plate less than a starving atheist.” Just throwing that out there.
Article doesn’t seem to say much other than “Roy Halladay is REALLY, REALLY, REALLY, did I say REALLY, good and he’s been just as good, if not slightly better, in the NL.”
I would like to see an article, from someone, explaining why it seems like the best pitchers in MLB are on “not so good” teams.
“I would like to see an article, from someone, explaining why it seems like the best pitchers in MLB are on “not so good” teams.”
Does it seem like this to anyone else? I’ve never, ever made that connection. I don’t think there’s any particular correlation between top-notch pitchers on non-contenders (Greinke, Felix, Josh Johnson, Strasburg, Oswalt, etc) versus contenders (Halladay, Lincecum, Jimenez, Carpenter, Wainwright, CC, Jimenez, etc). You can find plenty of examples of good pitchers on bad teams, and counter-examples of good pitchers on good teams.
As a whole, the bad teams record-wise in 2010 are generally those that have awful pitching – the five worst FIP’s belong to Cleveland, KC, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, and Arizona.
NL East
Which has been a pretty tough division with 4 teams above .500 for most of the year.
Halladay has just gone out and done his thing every 5th day.
It was a great trade to make…though that other companion deal made around the same time (when we sent that journeyman LHP to Seattle) was not so great….yeah, not so great.
His Innings are high, but what about his pitch count? or total pitches thrown all season? Is he more efficient than most pitchers?
it’s not looking good. halladay’s been throwing 5 more pitches per inning than his last three years.
2007: 14.78 pitches/IP, 66.13% for strikes
2008: 14.47 pitches/IP, 66.57% for strikes
2009: 14.20 pitches/IP, 68.59% for strikes
2010: 19.85 pitches/IP, 68.59% for strikes
and I take that back.
2404/171 is not 19.85, but rather, 14.06. my bad.
which means he’s been even MORE economical than he has in previous years. yikes. in a good way.
“Winning only 60% instead of 65% of Halladay’s starts won’t cost the Phillies a playoff spot or anything”
You know something I don’t? I’m expecting this NL East/WC race to come down to one or two games. Winning two extra Halladay starts would have been huge.
I knew a bunch of the comments would be about that joke. Augustus’ comment is particularly hilarious. It’s not hard to get. Either you think it’s shitty or you don’t. Who cares.
Anyway, I’ll second MikeS’s comment about the move to the NL. I thought I got him for a bargain in an auction draft this year, but he hasn’t won as many games as I thought he would due to the underperforming Phillies’ offense.
I’m gonna disagree that its not hard to get. It doesn’t make any sense at all.
It was a bit of a stretch by him, I admit, but he has to be talking about Catholics (not even sure if other Christians do it? maybe that’s the problem) making the sign of the cross to thank God/say grace before eating.
But nobody performs the sign of the cross on a plate, right? Unless there is some weird sect of Christians that venerates their dinnerware.
I still don’t get it, why would a starving atheist feel the need to perform the ‘sing of the cross’ or say a blessing before a meal? it doesn’t work and it doens’t make any sense.
Haha no. I guess what I meant to say is that it’s easy to figure out what he was TRYING to say. I never said that it was effective.
I am a Catholic and I still don’t get it…
Going by the latter, blessing, interpretation, wouldn’t it have made more sense to sense a starving Catholic, since he or she wouldn’t be near a plate to cross?
I mean, a starving atheist would cross the plate as much as a gluttonous one.
Also, this is clearly the most important aspect of the article.
Maybe the starving Catholic is actually on a hunger strike in a Northern Ireland prison, so he makes the sign of the cross whenever he gets a plate of food through the door but he doesn’t eat it.
*has “Hunger” on his Netflix queue*
Is that one of the films Criterion released recently?
If so, let me know how it is.
This thread will be long be buried by the time you watch it, but just whisper your review into the East as the sun sets behind you, and I’ll be able to pick up on your feelings about it.
It is much more efficient that either looking up reviews online or checking to see if it is indeed a Criterion title.
It was released earlier this year, yeah. But don’t count on me. I haven’t spent much time watching films lately, and Hunger is buried in a 100+ queue somewhere.
Go ahead and explain it to us smart guy cause I don’t get it either.
Yeah, I was the same with my Netflix before I finally got rid of it…
I think I had Day for Night for over a year without watching it before I just canceled the account.
In retrospect, maybe it’s a bit presumptuous to expect non-Christians to know of that practice. I shouldn’t have brought any more attention to it either way.
HALLADAY IS AWESOME, GUYS
To continue to bring more attention to an aside, does it really have to make perfect literal sense? Not getting that.
And indeed, Halladay is awesome.
I was raised Christian, and it still doesn’t make any sense. Neither does “Roy Halladay pitches in an inexorable manner”. Someone needs to get R.J. an editor.
That article has more ineffective and meaningless similies than Ross Perot doing drunk improv on a rhino.
I’d pay to see that. I’m not sure if Perot is still alive, but I think I’d pay either way.
“The possibility of Halladay topping 250 innings for the second time in his career is becoming a distinct reality in a rapid manner.”
If I submitted sentences like that in freshman English, I would have flunked out of college. Quit trying to overwrite, Anderson.
You’re right, that sentence is weak. Or to put it more figuratively, that sentence is weaker than a dead presidential candidate on a rhino. Starving. Venerating a plate.
His prose bedazzles on the screen
I do wonder if the workload will affect him next season. He’s averaged 237 IP the last three years and, as stated, he’s likely to push 270 IP this season. And if the Phillies make the playoffs, there’s the potential for him to throw another 20, 30 or even 40 innings on top of that. But even if they miss the playoffs, that’s still a massive workload for a guy approaching his mid-30s.
He’s efficient, for sure, but the volume HAS to catch up to him at some point. Right? Anyone?
He IS very efficient with his pitch counts. I’d say Halladay makes fewer pitches than a salesman with agrophobia. So maybe the relevant stat is pitches made in 2010, rather than IP.
Yeah, there’s something to be said for the pitch counts. I was trying to look into guys who threw that many innings in recent years (who weren’t Randy Johnson, because he’s not human). Pat Hentgen was the last guy who came to mind. He threw 265 innings in 1996, then 264 innings in 1997 and was basically toast after that.
Now, Hentgen wasn’t nearly the pitcher that Halladay is, but he was reasonably effective before falling off a cliff.
Not saying Halladay will suffer the same fate, but I’m just trying to find comparisons for this kind of workload.
He certainly has the “skill”. (Nice phrase, BTW)
Following Halladay around, recording his routine, recording the type, speed, location, and result of every pitch would be something I would kill for.
My guess is that he is the “perfect storm” in regards to:
[1] throwing strikes.
[2] movement over velocity.
[3] changing speeds.
[4] offspeed low in the zone.
[5] fastball movement away from barrel.
[6] efficient mechanics.
This is an uncharacteristically skimpy article from Fangraphs. It seems more like the introduction to an article about Halladay’s pure talent and Philly’s uncanny ability to squander his great starts. I would have liked some explanation about WHY the Phillies are 13-9 in his starts despite his efficiency and endurance.
The Phillies have scored 3 or fewer runs about 45 times this season, so it’s not just Halladay’s starts.
It makes sense that the lower run scoring would affect an average pitcher’s W-L record, than it would Roy Halladay’s.
He’s won 12 of his 17 QS (71%), and lost ALL of his non quality starts (0-5).
I would imagine that’s pretty darn close to the average W-L % for QS.
Later today, I plan to do a similar comparison, using the top 5 pitchers in the NL (Halladay, Johnson, Jimenez, Wainwright, and Lincecum), or at least the 5 NL pitchers I’m most interested in.
What I am guessing is that they all win about 70-75% of the QS, and when they lose, they lose.
So far the 3 guys I have looked at (Halladay, Haren, and Saunders) have a difference in ERA of about ~5 runs in their QS vs. non-QS. I’m wondering if that is “how it goes” with most guys.
Halladay might have perfect mechanics. perfect mechanics can make up for innings/pitches.
Look, I know breaking down Halladay is a pain in the ass, especially when he looks like three different awesome pitchers in his last three starts, but it’s gotta be doable.
A free suggestion for anyone wanting to write an article on Halladay’s season and misfortune. Detail each start and how he ended up with that record, not a simple summation of his season stat line.
IMO, any commentary on W-L records should include game log data. I did the same with Saunders and Haren. Both guys won most of their quality starts (Saunders 75%, Haren 64%) and most of their losses featured 4+ ER in 6IP or less.
I’ll look up Halladay when I’m not on an iPhone.
QS: 17GS — 138.1 IP, 15 ER (0.98 ERA)
Non: 5 GS — 30.2 IP, 26 ER (7.63 ERA)
QS: 12W – 3L – 2ND
Non: 0W – 5L – 0ND
OPP — IP – ER, DEC
——————
WSN — 7 – 1, W
HOU — 9 – 0, W
FLA — 8 – 2, W
ATL — 9 – 0, W
NYM — 9 – 0, W
STL — 7 – 1, W
COL — 6.1 – 2, ND
PIT — 9 -2, L
FLA — 9 – 0, W
SDP — 7 – 2, W
FLA — 8 – 1, L
MIN — 8 – 3, L
TOR — 7 – 0, W
ATL — 9 -1, W
CIN — 9 – 0, ND
COL — 8 – 0, W
ARZ — 9 – 1, W
SFG — 7 – 5, L
BOS — 5.2 – 6, L
NYY — 6 – 6, L
CIN — 8 – 4, L
CHC — 6 – 5, L
What’s amazing is how many QS are the 0 or 1 ER variety.
Quality Starts by ER Allowed:
0 ER = 7
1 ER = 5
2 ER = 4
3 ER = 1
WOW! 12 GS with allowing 1 ER or less. He’s more likely to allow 0 or 1 ER than he is 2+ (even when looking at ALL GS). GS with 1 or 0 ER (12) is more than when allowing 2+ ER (10).
Amazing.
He’s won 71% of his QS (2010), a little less than Saunders (74%), much more than Haren (64%).
In HALF (11 of 22) of his starts he has gone 8 IP or more while giving up 2 or fewer ER.
Talk about saving the bullpen.
Really, I’m wanting to see just how important a stat like QS could be for pitchers. I have stated previously, that I feel that QS should be a focus stat on starters … namely due to bad outings, distorting ERA and FIP.
For exmaple, a guy could have a 4BB and 3HRA game, and it could alter his seasonal ERA and FIP quite a bit, even though it just occurred in ONE game, when he could have lost that ONE game, even pitching “half as bad”.
Same thing with batters, …. there were articles showing where a specific player had “20% of his WAR” in one game, and that makes me question some aspects of WAR. If a guy hits 3HRs and drives in 8 runs, chances are the additional 2 HRs and 5RBIs did not have much impact on the actual winning of the game.
I like WPA, and would like to see it more emphasized, since it shows directly how much input to winning the player contributes. Same thing with QS. WPA seems to be less important for SP, since anything that happens in the 1st 5 innings doesn’t count “really high” on the WPA chart.
Has anyone else noted Roy’s improved/more used change up this year?
Yeah, it’s a split-fingered grip. Wish he had it years ago, seems to be another plus pitch..
No offense to Josh Johnson, but the Cy Young should be all his.
How bout everyone chill re: an idiom you don’t know/don’t get/don’t like. Let’s talk about a seven game playoff series where you have to face Halladay in Games 1, 4 and 7, Oswalt in Games 2 and 6, and Hamels in Game 3. Yikes says this Braves fan . . .
Now what are they doing with Werth?
Halladay’s pitch totals are up, because he’s on pace for 12 complete games(pitched 9 shutout innings a few games back and got a no-decision.) Another stat is that he’s pitched at least 7 innings in 18 of his 22 starts.
Doc is probably really throwing more pitches, because he’s focusing more on strikeouts this season.
This might be true. For most of the season, the Phils have seen some of their more important defensive players injured (Rollins, Utley, Polanco). Halladay has allowed 48 runs this season, but only 42 of those runs are earned. Since Halladay is a ground ball out pitcher, and since the Phils seem to lack offense when he pitches, it seems reasonable that he might be going for more Ks.