Halladay Heating Up Again
According to a report on Yahoo, the Boston Red Sox organization has offered the Toronto Blue Jays a very competitive package for ace starter Roy Halladay. According to the site, Boston offered young starters Clay Buchholz and Michael Bowden, as well as 19-year-old outfielder Ryan Westmoreland.
Frankly, I like that much better than the rumored offer from the Philadelphia Phillies that included young hurler J.A. Happ, starter Carlos Carrasco, infielder Jason Donald, and outfielder Michael Taylor. Frankly, the only player in that deal that does anything for me is Taylor. You have to wonder how the Phillies organization can justify holding back its best prospects for one of the Top 5 pitchers in all of baseball and perhaps the most consistent in the past five years?
If I were the Jays, I would not do a deal with Philly without double-A pitching prospect Kyle Drabek and high-A outfielder Dominic Brown. The Phillies’ deal is almost insulting: a MLB pitcher currently playing over his ceiling, a pitching prospect who has regressed in the past two seasons, a shortstop who is an average hitter at best and may need to move to second base, as well as Taylor.
However, even a deal including Drabek and Brown would not appeal to me as much as Boston’s rumored offer of two MLB-ready, young pitchers and a talented (but inexperienced) young outfielder. If the Sox tossed in MLB infielder Jed Lowrie, outfielder Josh Reddick or right-hander Junichi Tazawa, I would probably scream, “Sold!” The organization refuses to trade SS/RHP prospect Casey Kelly and MLB reliever Daniel Bard, and I can respect that; the other players that Boston is offering are much better than those being suggested by Philly.
Forget about dealing within the division. Toronto needs to get the best deal possible for Halladay, and that could very well come from Boston.
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woah, this is getting confusing. you cant just bounce back and forth between halladay and holliday posts. u are making me dizzy. this site is hard enough to follow with all of ur fancy numbers and “metrics”
If that offer is true, then the Phillies need to get in contact with the Indians.
Yeah, it’s been laughable that the Phillies won’t part with Drabek. He is barely a top prospect at all. The sox offer is much better and I agree with the writer that the Jays should get the best deal possible and not worry about him in the division.
How is he barely a top prospect? BA just ranked him a top 25 prospect in baseball.
throws 96-97 with a nasty curve if it wasnt for the tommy john two years ago he’d be a top 10 prospect…do your homework before you call someone barely a top prospect
This rumor seems designed to smoke out some action on the Adrian Gonzalez front more than anything else. Basically telling the Padres what kind of package the Sox are willing to part with for a gamechanger. Of course, if the Pads are unmoved and the Sox land Halladay, I doubt the Sox’ll be too upset.
Could be. One thing for damn sure, ‘Doc’ will not be traded to a division rival.
Starting consecutive sentences with the word “frankly” is weird
This rumor was shot down by a Boston exec.
This is called “posturing.”
How can you call that deal insulting? Yes you are getting the top pitcher in baseball, but ONLY for 1.5 years. Yes Happ may be pitching over his head but he still projects to be a 3rd starter Mark Redman type by most accounts. Carrasco regressed but he’s still only 22 for crying out loud. Most scouts will tell you he has great major league stuff, but just needs to focus mentally to reach the next level. Donald has potential and still is a top 75 prospect. Taylor will be a legitimate 5-tool starting major league outfielder in 2010 or possibly even next year. I’d say thats a pretty damn good package.
2010 is next year…
haha..2011 you know what I mean
Sorry, but this article was necessary. That Phillies offer completely stinks for a top 5 (if not TOP) starter in ALL of baseball… Look at how Derek Lowe has aged, I don’t see why Roy can’t be on top of his game for atleast 5 more seasons before he starts to seriously regress…
when a team is handcuffed by a player that
a) already said he won’t sign an extension
b) has a full no trade and will only go to a closer
you can offer whatever you want, the jays will come down on their asking price or they will get nothing for him.
a closer? somewhere in my brain i typed contender :(
a) already said he won’t sign an extension
I highly doubt Doc said anything of the sort. He has never, ever, EVER negotiated contracts mid-season as he “prefers” to focus on baseball and not money. It’s highly likely that if the contender contends, Doc will extend. Or something.
They don’t get nothing. They get to keep watching the Doc’ pitch every 5 days. That is not nothing, that is what all of these teams are salivating about.
The Dodgers will stag Lee by trading MacDonald, Elbert, Ethan Martin, and Lambo (3 top pitching prospects and one OF) and then go after Gonzalez with a package that includes Loney, DeJesus and posibly Bell.
Yahoo! MLBTR on Fangraphs!
:my turn:
LaRouche, Pennie, Greene, and 3 prospects (as long as their not top 100) for Lee and V-Mart. Get R Done!
Buchholz’s start tonight will go a LONG way in determining what happens in the next two or three days. If he pitches great tonight, don’t count the Red Sox out of the Hallday race or A. Gonzalez race. They are desperate to make a deal with the Yanks leading the pack. Wish the Rays would storm the Yanks in this series, but it doesn’t look pretty…
Is it just me or does anybody else get the feeling Clay is a 4A starter? I just don’t think he will develop into the frontline MLB starter everybody seems to think….
Yeah he is just a 4A, anyone off the street can throw a no hitter and dominate in AAA
A guy with two plus off-speed pitches, a solid average fastball, good control and is only 24 years old is not quite AAAA fodder yet. I personally thinks it’s ridiculous to write off a pitcher after a grand total of 20 major league starts.
WEEI in Boston is reporting the Sox are close to acquiring Cliff Lee
You talking about that twitter post? WEEI is saying that it was a hacker who posted that.
Awful post for a hacker too. Go big or go home. Don’t report that a deal for Lee is ‘close.’
Kyle Drabek does not throw 96-97, not even close.
What am I missing here?
Bowden’s minor league numbers don’t seem great. He’s got good control but doesn’t strike a whole lot of guys out. Carrasco’s got a better FIP in AAA and they were similarly rated prospects at the beginning of this season.
Taylor is a more highly rated prospect than Westmoreland, and is closer to MLB ready.
Bucholz certainly has a higher ceiling than Happ, but neither are going to be an ace.
Donald is probably just a utility player but might end up hitting well enough to earn a little more playing time.
I don’t see what makes Boston’s offer tremendously better than Philly’s, especially for a trade with a division rival.
that Boston prospect = automatic winzzzzzzzzzz
This reminds me of two years ago when the Chicago Bulls were talking to the Lakers about trading Deng and a few other guys for Kobe Bryant. The Bulls were balking at giving up Deng. A few days later TNT was talking to Charles Barkley about the trade and he remarked “Who the hell is Luol Deng?”
Who the hell is Kyle Drabek? The Lakers kept Bryant and have a ring. The Bulls went home and Deng has yet to show his potential. The Phillies should do this deal now, and use the value of being a dynasty in the making to attract more talent, and use the money they make from two titles to sign top tier draft picks to replenish their system.
the only problem with this logic is that MLB playoffs is vastly more unpredictable than the NBA . in the NBA. those 8th place team have less than a 1% chance of winning it all while the best team have close to 40-50%, in the MLB, the worest team have a 5% chance and the best have less than 30%.
Also, a baseball game typically sees a team uses 12 players or more a game. a starting pitcher in the playoff is at the most going to get 7 starts or so (usually a lot less than that ).
So, the percentage of chance a Roy Halladay add to a team’s chances in the WS is vastly different from the chances a Kobe or Lebron add to any NBA team.
One can take a look at BP’s post season series odds and have a good idea of what the chances of a team in playoffs really looks like, basically , it’s almost all between 5-30% , how much % do you think a single player can add to that? (if your curious, the Phillies only had a 5% chance last year like the Dodgers / Brewers / White Soxs … the team with the best chance was….. wait for it……. the Cubs.)
As for the package. Blue Jays need positional prospects more than pitching. so I’m not sure why a completely pitching dominated package with a A baller thrown in is suppose to do for them. I’m also not sure why Bowden is major league ready but Carrasco is not , yes i understand that Carrasco has a high ERA in AAA right now but the components look a lot stronger than Bowden’s.
If I were the Jays I’d scrap Haap and ask for Brown and/or Lou Marson, Taylor + Brown + Marson + Carrasco would do for me .
I suppose Lowrie + Bucholz + Bowden + Westmoreland is comparable. maybe even better due to the fact that two of them is already in the majors and the 3rd had a taste. but I can’t see the Sox throwing out Lowrie when they’re playing Nick Green everyday unless his wrist is a lot worse than they’re letting it out. if it’s just Bucholz + Bowden + Westmoreland then I don’t see how two young pitchers who hasn’t really established themself and a A baller is anywhere more of a sure thing than what the Phillies offer. at least it’s not nearly enough of a difference to trade within the division.
Well, don, Bowden’s numbers aren’t great, and he’s not projected much higher than a 3, but he’s also the second pitcher in the deal. To put Happ and Buchholz in the same sentence is kind of ridiculous. And Buchholz was absolutely thought of as an ace going into last season, the only thing that’s changed is he’s struggled a bit so far in the majors. If you really think about it, he’s by far the best prospect the Blue Jays have been offered yet, if reports are true.
Add on top of him a guy like Bowden who could be a solid innings eater, and Westmoreland who may not be as as “highly rated” as Brown (simply because he hadn’t played a professional game before this season) but has every bit the upside Brown does, and I think anyone who analyzes the minors/prospects will tell you that deal is better. Of course it was also bogus and I doubt the Red Sox would give that up for 1.5 years of any pitcher.
I can’t wait to see what Fangraphs says about the Phils trade for Lee.
Teams are highly valuing their cheap prospects in this bad economic time, so teams are hesitant to assume $20M in salary, even for a top pitcher like Halladay. The Phillies held all the cards, as one of the few teams willing to part with a high ceiling prospect and take on salary. The Lee trade demonstrates this, and I suspect a future Halladay trade will reflect it as well.
For the Yankees and Red Sox, what about the possibility that if they don’t make a trade for Halladay, they may have to face him 3 or even 4 times before the season is over.
The Yanks have 4 series remaining against the Jays while the Sox have 3. So not only would each have a great 1-2 pitcher for the post season, ( Sabathia / Halladay or Beckett / Halladay seems very similar to the Schilling / Jonhson pairing for Arizona), both teams would benefit from not having to face Doc during the regular season, helping them even more in making the post season.