Comments on: Hamels vs Martinez

By: Ryan H.

Ryan H. — Wed, 28 Oct 2009 05:37:18 +0000

Yeah I know, but sometimes in my own little world filled with irrational, probably non existent confounding variables, I like to think it does sometimes. Kind of like Santa Claus =)

By: Doug Melvin

Doug Melvin — Wed, 28 Oct 2009 03:15:29 +0000

Ryan,

The order literally has no effect on the Phil’s win probability for the series.

By: Ryan H.

Ryan H. — Wed, 28 Oct 2009 03:01:25 +0000

Maybe Charlie Manuel feels that Martinez would be best suited to go against Burnett while Hamels is a better matchup against Pettitte. It just seems like a gut move on Manuel’s part, that’s the only thing that makes sense to me.

By: 92-93

92-93 — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 22:26:04 +0000

The Phillies clearly need Happ in long relief to handle all those Bomber lefties. Think Darren Oliver Game 6, that will be his role. They are a better team using Pedro/Blanton as starters with Happ in the pen than the other way around.

By: Doug Melvin

Doug Melvin — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 21:22:15 +0000

@UnrepentantGunner:

Yeah. I agree. I think it’s quite short-sighted to just look at higher number of expected starts when it completely, totally, 100% doesn’t matter if they are to start the same number of games over a seven game series.

By: Mike Green

Mike Green — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 21:17:32 +0000

Hamels’ last 6 outings have been bad. The pitch f/x analysis might tell you something about his control during that time. It is always possible that the manager knows something about the pitcher’s arm health.

By: heyyoo

heyyoo — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 19:13:32 +0000

Don’t know what his avg velo was during the previous two playoff series, but after dipping a bit for several starts in late August, early September, it popped back up over his final 3 or 4 reg season starts

http://www.fangraphs.com/fgraphs/4972_P_FA_20091003.png

By: Steve

Steve — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 18:25:10 +0000

sorry to nitpick, but i believe both Shef and Thome’s salaries were still being covered by their AL counterparty.

By: TheUnrepentantGunner

TheUnrepentantGunner — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 17:52:45 +0000

Ed that is a fair and valid point to some degree, although certainly the bigger NL teams have some of these bench-type players as well (Thome and Sheffield come to mind). I’d have to think these players also matter in inter-league matchups, especially at AL stadiums, but it might also make a smaller but still meaningful difference, as Matsui >> Stairs/Dobbs.

By: Ed

Ed — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 17:00:13 +0000

UnrepentantGunner – I would expect the average AL payroll to be higher, as you have one additional starting player per team. Coming into 2009, there were big money DH’s like Ortiz, Thome, Matsui, Burrell, Vlad, Hafner, etc. On NL teams, they would all be replaced by low money bench players. That probably explains most of the payroll difference. Any additional difference is likely accounted for by the Yankees payroll being so out of line with everyone else’s.

The DH advantage goes away in the NL ballpark, so that should neutralize the payroll advantage in 50% of interleague games.