Hanley Ramirez to 3B
When the Marlins signed Jose Reyes to a six-year, $106M contract, much of the attention shifted to the Marlins’ former shortstop, Hanley Ramirez. How would he respond to the free agent signing and the news that he would be shifting to third base?
Multiple reports began to surface:
- Ramirez voiced displeasure over potential move to third base and demanded a trade.
- Ramirez did not necessarily demand a trade, but was certainly not pleased with the proposed switch.
Most recently, Hanley Ramirez will reportedly accept his move to third base and is excited to be a part of the 2012 Miami Marlins. Whether that is simply public relations posturing or his true attitude toward the positional change, nobody knows, but the move will improve the Marlins big league squad as a whole next season.
Jose Reyes is a more valuable shortstop than Hanley Ramirez. Reyes possesses better better defensive skills at short and is coming off a phenomenal — albeit a bit lucky — season at the plate in which he hit .337/.384/.493 and posted a .386 wOBA, while Ramirez struggled with BABIP issues and a declining line drive rate that resulted in a career-low .317 wOBA.
The difference in value between the two shortstops was more pronounced in 2011, however, than it probably is in actuality. Reyes was worth almost five wins more than his fellow Dominican native — yet Reyes has actually been less valuable since 2006 (+28.2 WAR) than Ramirez in that same time frame (+31.1 WAR).
However, despite the fact that he has produced more WAR than his new teammate, Ramirez has shown signs of decline in terms of pure offensive production. His GB/FB rate has sky rocketed from 0.93 in 2009 to 1.56 and 1.53 over the past two years, respectively. That means more baseballs on the ground and less power, which is evidenced by his declining ISO numbers the past two years. In fact, Hanley Ramirez had an ISO below the league-average (.136 vs .144) for the first time in 2011.
This is not to suggest Hanley Ramirez did not provide value to the Marlins last season. His .317 wOBA was still above-average offensively in the National League amongst active shortstops. Reyes is simply trending to be a more valuable shortstop — if healthy, which is certainly not a guarantee — than Ramirez in 2012. Thus, Miami wedged him into the existing lineup ahead of Ramirez and asked him to move positions.
The position change will not only provide the Marlins with improved performance at shortstop, but it will also upgrade third base. Ramirez is clearly a better player than Greg Dobbs, the Marlins primary third baseman last year. Dobbs has never been worth more than +1.1 WAR in a single season and was merely a half-win player in 2011. His power numbers are not fit for a corner infielder — nor do they profile well in what should be an extreme pitcher’s park in Miami — and he is below-average defensively.
The positional adjustments that are based upon the defensive spectrum and that are utilized to calculate the WAR statistic suggest that Ramirez should improve defensively once he moves to third base. It is an easier position. His range will certainly be above-average at third base instead of being below-average at shortstop. His throwing accuracy must improve a bit, to be sure, but the prevailing thoughts suggest that he should be more productive with the glove than he was at shortstop — though it is important to note that this article by our own Wendy Thurm suggests history may not be on Ramirez’s side in that regard.
Defense aside, Ramirez should continue to be above-average with the bat at his respective position. He compiled a .317 wOBA in his worst offensive season to this point in his career, while the National League average amongst active third basemen was just .312. Even that career-low wOBA would be a significant improvement over the .305 wOBA provided by Greg Dobbs in 2011 — not to mention that Hanley Ramirez is a prime candidate to bounce back, at least somewhat, next season due to his .275 BABIP (career .339 BABIP). He should also be fully recovered from the various injuries that plagued him last year.
This will then allow Dobbs to move back to a bench bat role, which suits his skills as a player much better. He will not have to face left-handed pitching with any regularity, and his defensive innings will be limited.
Slotting in Jose Reyes at shortstop and moving Hanley Ramirez to third base does have a deeper affect than just moving Greg Dobbs to the bench, though. It also marginalizes prospect Matt Dominguez and leaves him without a true home through at least the 2014 season. Of course, one could argue that Dominguez didn’t really have a home with the Marlins at third base, anyway, as he only hit .258/.312/.431 in Triple-A last season, but he does have the reputation for being a sterling defender and should hit double-digit home runs if given regular time at the big league level. Dominguez could be an interesting trade chip heading into the summer Trade Deadline, especially if the Marlins are competitive and ready to deal.
All in all, this move has the potential to give Miami one of the strongest left-sides of the infield in all of baseball. Jose Reyes must stay healthy and Hanley Ramirez must bounce back from both a shoulder injury and a down season at the plate, but it’s difficult to ignore that Miami now has two players that have both posted six-win seasons within the past three years. And with both players at just 28-years-old on Opening Day, it’s tough to argue that their finest years are necessarily behind them.
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I really enjoyed the article a few weeks back that was on the myth of blocked players. It sold me on the idea that blocking a player rarely hurts the team or the player. Evidently I was the only one, because every argument made about these off-season moves involves how awful it is that a team is now blocking prospect so-and-so. Don’t get me wrong, I liked this analysis. I just thought I would point that out.
“Slotting in Jose Reyes at shortstop and moving Hanley Ramirez to third base does have a deeper affect [sic] than just moving Greg Dobbs to the bench, though. It also marginalizes prospect Matt Dominguez and leaves him without a true home through at least the 2014 season.”
This does not say the move is awful because it blocks a prospect. It says a prospect won’t get playing time he might otherwise have gotten and now is a good trade chip. In fact, the article suggests that Hanley and Reyes will provide more production than Dominguez and Hanley would have, which should entail that the move is a good one. So, if a blocked prospect is one that would have provided more value had a veteran not prevented the prospect from taking the field, then this article denies that Dominguez is blocked. But an unblocked prospect might still miss out on playing time because a veteran has taken the position the prospect would have played. Calling Dominguez blocked is akin to calling the Phillies’ Freddy Galvis blocked because they resigned Rollins.
Hanley is still a realtively young guy that can make the transition to 3rd. If Ramirez and Reyes both stay healthy that is a pretty potent combination in the lineup.
Hanley should be excited. Now when he doesn’t get to balls that are 1-2 steps to his backhands side they have a 50/50 chance of being foul balls instead of sure singles.
There are some players that just don;t seem to ever be happy about anything, or at the very least are the extreme case of egocentric. They all want the organization to improve the team, but they still want to be the center of the team, and the org is supposed to build up the team around them, not actually expect that the player will accept actions that make the team better if they have a less prominent role.
Cal Ripken and Alex Rodriguez both moved to 3B from SS. Hanley deserves a “C’mon Man!”
Could this team have anymore eccentric and/or egotistical personalities? I can just envision the the team flights where everyone is tweeting insinuations about everyone else.
On a serious note, it’ll be interesting to see how Hanley performs with the bat. I don;t wantr to see another player on the “David Wright career path”.
Of course, the 50% he does miss will end up now penalizing the team twice over since they will become doubles instead.
A double is not twice as good as a single.
He might actually be a better 3B than SS, since 3B features quickness over range.
If he’s better at getting to balls 1 step to his right/left than he is balls 2-4 steps to his R/L, then he could be better at 3B than at SS.
It’s reasonable that Miami could have the best SS and the best 3B in the NL.
Ryan Zimmerman get 1 to 2 WAR per year for defense (except 2011), and it’s probably safe to assume that he’d be a below average fielding SS.
I haven;t watched Hanley a ton, but if he has good hands and accurate throws, that’s 3B in a nutshell right there. The parts of Hanley’s game that I have seen that are underwhelming are him going to the right deep in the hole. In short, he doesn’t.
He’s also not going to need to play to his left as much (since Reyes will be there), so it’s possible he can play closer the 3B line than everyone else does.
One thing is for sure. Without Reyes, the Mets are going to blow.
When Reyes inevitably hits the DL, does Ramirez fill in for him at short?
Not if you want him to learn 3B.
“Jose Reyes is a more valuable shortstop than Hanley Ramirez.”
There’s no reason to make claims like this that you can’t substantiate. I have no idea why you’d be compelled to write this. I imagine what you meant to write is: “In 2011, Reyes was a more valuable shortstop than Hanley” or “Defensively, Reyes is a more valuable SS than Hanley.”
The fact is, they now both have a history of injury, and while Hanley is and will continue to decline in the field faster than Reyes, he clearly the better hitter. They have posted almost the same WAR in the same time span, and are almost the same age. Saying one is more valuable than the other is useless, and adds nothing to the discussion.
People will make much of Hanley’s decline last year, but as we have seen time and time again, it all must be taken in the context of their careers – don’t get sucked into recency bias, lest you make a fool of yourself in your fantasy league.
In the end, people will point to the downward trajectory of Hanley in 2010 and his fill downswing in 2011, and claim he has found new true talent levels. These people would be wrong. Those down seasons will produce a lower project for 2012 Hanley, but it in no way indicates that an elite hitter has somehow lost his ability to drive the ball at age 29.
I don’t know Slart, Hanley made a fool of many fantasy owners in 2011, and the trend in ISO is real, not made up.
Hanley moving to 3b will hurt his value for fantasy leagues should the drop in power continue. Of course, he is still eligible at SS, so that won’t happen till 2013.
Slart,
There is a difference between making a claim that can’t be substantiated and making a reasonable claim with which one can reasonably disagree. Just because you disagree with the general assessment, doesn’t mean the assessment *could* not be substantiated.
Besides, to evaluate whether the general assessment is substantiable you would have to determine what the meaning of “is” is in that proposition. Does it mean at this very moment? For the past/next year? Over the course of their respective careers? Does it mean essentially is? What proposition exactly is unsubstantiable according to you?
Overall, 3B was just as weak an offensive position as SS in 2011. There is a HUGE dropoff after the first couple elite 3B offensively.
Reyes surely projects to be a 5-5.5 win player next year. I don’t think it’s too big of a reach to suggest that Hanley, if he stayed at SS, would project to about a win less than that, at best. He’s coming off a 1.3 win season (or 2/3 of a season) and is probably a -10 run defensive SS or so.
Is the claim one the author can prove? No but neither is it one that is far-fetched.
So does this move Bonifacio to CF? If so, does that end Miami’s pursuit of Cespedes? Because of the Cuban connection, I thought Miami would be Cespedes top choice. When the Marlins signed Reyes I was hoping it would make Bonifacio available and the Giants would pounce. Certainly solves their leadoff hitter/SS issue and allows Crawford another year to develop at AAA (though they tradeoff from Crawford’s defense). Wishful thinking I suppose…
Bonafacio won’t stop them from signing Cespedes.
Awesome! That could certainly mean Bonifacio might be available. Though as a 3.3 WAR player entering his prime, I’m not sure the Giants have the goods to make a trade unless Miami needs bullpen help and the Giants are willing to part with someone.
@ Sabean –
perhaps it’s that my sarcasm detector is broken (does Sabean actually know what WAR is?) but Bonifacio hardly projects as a 3+ win player going forward. Last year’s BABIP was .372, more than 30 points higher than his career average and something that is clearly unsustainable going forward. Never before had he been above a 1.2 win player and he probably is, at best, a 2 win player or so going forward.
In truth, he’s probably best suited as a utility player but was forced into playing full-time last year due to injuries and a lack of depth. It seems to me that the Giants have the market cornered already on utility infielders.
@ Chuck
Sabean is most certainly knowledgeable of WAR as numerous relatives participated in both World War II and Vietnam….
But I don’t know why you so easily dismiss Bonifacio. Wouldn’t a 26 year old’s most recent season be his best? He just had 40% of his career PAs in his most recent season. I hardly think he has set his career standards as of yet. If he has been improving every year (like you might expect of a 26 year old), wouldn’t he have had his best numbers in this most recent season? And even if the BABIP comes down, might he not be able to improve other areas? I had a similar discussion regarding Melky Cabrera and how so many people thought he will come down from his “career” year. If a player’s career performance works like a bell curve, which is what i assume Fangraphs followers expect (improving up through age 27, peak years 28-31, decline years 32+), why would you be so surprised to see a player have his best year at age 26 or 27 and automatically expect regression?
Twins fan here, thinking about Matt Dominguez… For your Fish Fanatics out there, any thoughts on what Miami would ask for in return for Dominguez, presuming a moderate but unremarkable improvement over his 2011 performance in the minors?
I’d rather stay away from Dom. He doesn’t seem like he’ll be that good. I’d like an improvement over Valencia, I’m not sure if he can be that.
He’s the top prospect in the Marlins (weak) farm system, so I would expect something significant. Perhaps some bullpen help or whatever they may be looking for at the deadline.
A couple of minor points. One, swapping positions between two players or even simply moving one player to another position has nothing whatsoever to do with offensive production.
Two, a player’s UZR does not go up when moving from SS to 3B because the latter is an easier position (whether it is easier or not is a matter of semantics). UZR goes up only because the pool of defenders at SS is better than that at 3B. Whether THAT is true because SS is “harder” or because it has more opportunities is, again, a matter of semantics. Certainly someone like an actual player could reasonably proclaim that 3B was “harder”. And in fact if 3B were to have more opportunities than SS, then teams would likely put the better defenders there in which case a player’s UZR would go DOWN when moving from SS to 3B.
Wendy’s article was, well, terrible. She randomly plucked 3 players who made the switch, and spat out their before and after stats. Which were meaningless. As many pointed out, it’s not unbiased, and it’s not a reasonable sample, and as MGL pointed out, reversion to the mean and aging have something to do with results as well.
But I’m surprised that I haven’t seen anyone point out the biggest difference between SS and 3B for defenders, chances. Third basemen get the ball hit to them almost half as much as short stops do. So if SS and 3b were equally hard to play, a bad defender should cost a team only about half as much at third than at short. Obviously, there are other differences as well.
Not to make the same mistake as Wendy, but in players who play both 3rd and SS during their career seem to have better defensive stats at 3rd, which lends credence to the idea that it’s an easier position in general, obviously it might not be for every player depending on arm strength, accuracy, etc. On the thread one poster used Craig Counsell as a good example of this.their defensive measurements at both positions by year.