Harden’s Huge Whiff Rate
Over the weekend Matthew noted that the only starter who comes close to getting as many swinging strikes as called strikes is Rich Harden. He does it with just two pitches, a four-seam fastball and a changeup. Sliders and curves, generally, get the most swinging strikes so that makes Harden’s feat that much more amazing. Harden used to throw a splitter and a slider as well, but gave them up in hope of decreasing his injuries.
Harden four-seam fastball averages about 92 mph with over 10 inches of ‘rise’. The fastball has a 18.7% whiff rate (misses per swings). Among starters only Ted Lilly, Jonathan Sanchez, Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer have fastballs with a higher whiff rate.
His changeup is an even bigger reason for his huge number of swinging strikes. Hitters miss 48% of the time they swing at his change. As Harry Pavlidis highlighted that is the third most of any pitch in the game, and tops amongst changeups. The changeup has about 8mph separation from his fastball, with less tail and ‘rise’. Because he lacks any other secondary pitches he throws the changeup almost equally to lefties and righties, about 37% of the time. Harden starts about a third of of his at-bats with the changeup and has had better results when he pitches it before his fastball (1.3 runs per 100 above average) then when he throws it after (0.6 runs per 100 above average). This is the opposite of what we saw with Tim Lincecum. Hitters must be expecting the fastball on the first pitch of the at-bat and the changeup trips them up.
Harden’s results so far this year have been poor, but that has largely been driven by his high BABIP and HR/FB. His K and BB rates are inline with his career numbers, so going forward we should expect him to be very good.
According to this DL tool it looks like Harden has spent 26 days on the DL this year and 38 in 2008 way down over from 100 days in both of 2007 and 2006, so it looks like getting rid of the splitter and slider may have helped him stay healthy. That left him with two pitches, both of which rack up tons and tons of swinging strikes. It as a testament to how those pitches are that he can succeed as a starter with just the two pitches.
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Harden’s numbers are up this year because of the move to the National League. If he were still in the “triple-AL” he’d be dominating.
What’s the “triple-AL”? It makes it sound like you’re saying that the American League is like AAA compared to the NL.
lol, exactly. that’s the beauty of it. the pun implies (correctly) that the talent leven in the american league is inferior.
Are you misinformed, joking, or trolling? Because the average NL player is not as good as the average AL player, and pitchers in the NL have it especially good because the starters get throw to a pitcher one batter in 9.
what?
It’s easier to be a pitcher in the NL. Given two pitchers with identical stats, one in the NL and one in the AL, the one in the AL is the better pitcher. Thus if Harden was back in the AL he’d probably be doing slightly worse (that’s especially true for a pitcher who depends so little on the defense behind him or the park around him).
Obviously the NL is superior, why else would they dominate the AL in interleague play year after year?
Wait…..what?
Wrighteous doesn’t just deny global warming; he believes in global COOLING…
I suspect he believes in global trolling and should be ignored.
He does still throw the slider. I watched his recent start vs the Cubs and he threw about a dozen a sliders, mostly early in the count as “get me over” strikes. His changeup was outstanding as you said and his fastball has a ton of life up in the zone
It’s going to be interesting to see what kind of FA deal he gets next year….he seems like a guy a team can talk itself into giving big money to, but will likely disappoint in the end
Sure looks like a slider, doesn’t it? But, IIRC, it’s actually thrown as a changeup with a changeup grip. Really saying that he only has two pitches is a bit misleading because he can throw the change with so many different types of movements – the “split-change”, the slidery one, in his last start he threw some that were more conventional changeups with less vertical movement. Really when he’s on Rich Harden is probably a top five pitcher in the game. Trouble is he’s injury-prone and a little inconsistent and struggles to throw strikes occasionally
*above should read vs Phils
If you were a MLB GM (let’s say Hendry, or Coletti; NOT Minaya) what would you be willing to give Harden in a free agent deal? I’d have a hard time with anything beyond 2 years but he’ll probably get 3+.
3yr/$24m? Looks conservative on today’s market.
I think he’ll end up getting multi years at an eye opening amount from some team. 3-40 maybe?
If an exec watched tape of that Phils start, they would see him absolutely overmatching a lineup at is at worst, 3rd best in the MLB…and a lineup that had been pretty hot going into/directly after that game
He has age on his side too. I think teams will always gamble on the huge upside arm, especially if he can stay healthy and pitch well the rest of the year
What Harden and his agent could look at as well is to take a short offer in the hopes that the FA pitcher market is bare and the economy has rebounded by the time he becomes a FA again.
Or he could have so many injuries that this is his only chance to really cash in. Even if he takes a 3-4 year deal, he’s young enough that — if his health permits — he can have another bite of the apple.
“Among starters only Ted Lilly, Jonathan Sanchez, Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer have fastballs with a higher whiff rate.”
Which one doesn’t belong?!?!? Ted Lilly? Interesting!
Yeah, I noticed the same thing. His fastball isn’t all that fast, and it doesn’t appear to have much movement at all (I can’t find numbers on this). I think it has to do with context. He often sets up hitters with his breaking stuff and then throws the fastball with two strikes. I don’t have numbers on it, but he seems to get a lot of strikeouts, both looking and called, with the fastball.
Dave – Just what do you mean by ‘rise?’ I trust “rise” is not to be taken literally; so, help me out with “ten inch ‘rise.’”
Thanks.
Suppose you threw a ball in a vacuum, it would sink 32ft/second-squared from gravity. If you throw it in the air, frictional forces and spin can make the ball deviate from the trajectory it would take in a vacuum. “Rise” means that it sinks 10″ less than it would in a vacuum. Of course, the actually altitude of the ball from mound to plate decreases.
When on his game and injury free, Rich Harden is the most talented pitcher in baseball. Unfortunately, you can’t ignore how fragile he is. A healthy injury-free career from Rich Harden would have been an amazing thing to have been able to watch.