Howard
Scoring Position .320/.439/.589/1.028
Scoring Posn, 2 out .322/.468/.552/1.020

Pujols
Scoring Position .339/.523/.678/1.201
Scoring Posn, 2 out .326/.592/.791/1.383

Just for kicks, I’ll let you decide whose “close and late” line is whose:

.158/.306/.337/.643
.314/.444/.600/1.044

PA AB 1B HR 2B+3B BB K
RISP 216 175 33 12 11 41 54
Empty 348 312 29 22 10 36 111
1B only 127 123 13 14 9 4 34

Doesn’t this probably have something to do with the shift? Much more likely to see the shift with nobody on. If that’s the case, though, do steals for the Phillies acquire more value if they can add .140 to his batting average? I think the stats (from ESPN) confirm this.

PA AB 1B HR 2B+3B BB K
RISP 216 175 33 12 11 41 54
Empty 348 312 29 22 10 36 111
1B only 127 123 13 14 9 4 34

His XBH rate does go up with RISP, but there’s a much bigger difference in the 1B rate. He also did even better with power in 1B only situations, but the singes rate stayed the same as with bases empty. I think the evidence is that much of Howard’s RISP improvement is due to the absence of the shift.

The terrible thing is he hit .196 and had an OBP of .281 w/ nobody on. He is an extremely athletic talent, he makes great defensive plays, but mentally is not in the game and was anything but sure-handed when it came to routine plays. Countless times the guy would get a groundball and not know what base to go too, screwing up double-plays and sometimes not even getting an out.

However, the knock is a little hard on him. He is a tremendous run producer and I think he will have a huge season next year if Mr. Rollins can get back on track.

“You can’t win a division in April, but you can certainly lose one.”

“King Kaufman over at Salon wrote something the other day that I really liked. He wrote that the methodology for some voters seems to be: “Figure out who you like as MVP, then fashion the current year’s definition of ‘valuable’ to fit.”

I think that’s about right. I understand why people would want to vote for Ryan Howard as MVP. It fits a neat story line. We don’t want our MVPs to just be the boring ol’ best player — no, we want them to be superheroes, we want to ascribe to them some sort of mystical talents that lift teams above their modest means and carry them to unforeseen heights. We want to believe that the MVP — and the MVP alone — could have lifted them higher than they’ve ever been lifted before.”

BTW, I’d use caution comparing full-season guys like Howard and short-season guys like Ramirez. WPA or WPA/LI compares a player to average, which makes it easier for a player with less playing time to do relatively well. Example: Felix Hernandez had 0.3 batting WPA in one plate appearance. That’s why replacement level is a better baseline — it does a better job of including playing time.