He’s Hitting What?
Tony Pena Jr plays a good shortstop, so the Royals have given him a mostly regular job at shortstop over the last year and a half. During that time, we have learned one clear truth.
Tony Pena Jr can’t hit.
I’m not talking about Pena struggling at the plate. I’m not saying he’s a bad hitter for a major leaguer. I’m saying that Tony Pena Jr might be one of the worst hitters ever to put on a major league uniform. He’s unbelievably bad. For the season, he’s hitting .160/.181/.200. The average pitcher in the National League is hitting .141/.180/.177. At least he’s better than them as a group, but the margin couldn’t be much smaller.
While Pena’s not really this bad, he is pretty terrible. For his career, he has a 2.2% BB% thanks to a 39.06% O-Swing%. He swings at almost 40% of pitches out of the strike zone, and due to that aggressiveness, he never ever walks. But it’s not like his aggressiveness comes with its own rewards, because he’s not good at making contact either. His contact rate is just 79.44%, and his career K% is 17.1%. This isn’t a guy who is swinging at everything because he can actually put the bat on the ball. He’s just swinging at everything because… well, I have no idea why.
Even when he does make contact, pitchers don’t care. His Isolated Slugging % this year is a dreadful .041 (and .080 for his career), as he has just five extra base hits on the season. Most of that is because he’s an extreme groundball hitter with a career GB% of 55.8%. When you pound the ball into the ground, you’re basically hoping for a single at best, and that limits the value of your hits. In fact, most guys with extreme groundball tendencies and some speed teach themselves how to bunt so that they can maximize their skills, but Pena’s not even good at that - he has seven career bunt hits. For comparison, Luis Castillo got 16 bunt hits last year.
Pena is the complete package - ridiculously aggressive with poor contact skills, no power, and an inability to bunt himself on base. Add it all up, and you get a guy with a career .242/.261/.321 line that no amount of good defense can compensate for. I wasn’t sure I would ever see a team give regular at-bats to a guy with less offensive ability than Rey Ordonez, but along came Tony Pena Jr.
Royals fans, you have my sympathy.
Vegas Watch said,
May 29, 2008 @ 5:11 pm
Does that make him worse than Vidro, positional value and defense and all? Without doing the math, it seems like it’s probably close.
Pena’s current OPS+ is 4. To put that into context (like that’s necessary), the lowest OPS+ by a guy with 500+ PAs is Jim Levey in 1933, coming in at 24. Also a SS. This could get interesting.
Dave Cameron said,
May 29, 2008 @ 9:35 pm
In terms of overall value, Pena is better than Jose Vidro. Pena can’t hit, but he’s a legitimately good defensive SS, and that skill enough is worth carrying as a reserve, and his speed would let him serve as a pinch runner. He could be a useful piece on a championship team, just not as a starter.
Jose Vidro just doesn’t belong in the major leagues.
drew said,
May 29, 2008 @ 10:08 pm
‘Jose Vidro just doesn’t belong in the major leagues.”
Thats a little harsh. Certainly Vidro doesn’t deserve the role (DH) or paycheck (9 mil?) he’s getting from the Mariners, but he does have some value as a role player who can also serve as a pinch hitter.
Dave Cameron said,
May 29, 2008 @ 10:18 pm
Not really. Vidro’s true talent offensive level is something like .280/.330/.370, he has no defensive value, no speed, and as a plodding ground ball hitter, he’s a double play threat every time he steps to the plate with a man on first base.
That skill set isn’t worthy of a roster spot. The bat isn’t good enough to be a pinch hitter (there are a hundred minor league guys who can do better than a .700 OPS and are never going to get a shot), and he offers absolutely nothing else.
Vidro is not a major league player.
Vegas Watch said,
May 29, 2008 @ 11:18 pm
I’d rather have Pena on my team going forward, no doubt. I do think they’ve been comparable in value so far this year though, if only because Pena has hit farther below his true skill level than Vidro.
JR said,
May 29, 2008 @ 11:55 pm
And to think that idiot Toronto manager actually intentionally walked him this year…
jlc said,
May 30, 2008 @ 12:32 am
What I had trouble explaining to people was when the guy ahead of the Mariners’ DH was walked, so they could get to the easier out….
Is there any reason to think Pena might get better? As you said, he’s a good shortstop and he could be really useful if he could add even a little to his line.
Dave Cameron said,
May 30, 2008 @ 10:29 am
Not really, no. He hit .252/.282/.332 in 2,572 minor league at-bats, so this isn’t anything new. He’s 27 years old, so he’s theoretically in his physical prime. His .640 OPS last year is probably going to be his career high.
Adroit said,
June 4, 2008 @ 11:56 am
I’m confused by something in this post. Dave, you say “His contact rate is just 79.44%… This isn’t a guy who is swinging at everything because he can actually put the bat on the ball.”
But isn’t a contact rate of ~80% about average? Looking at players with over 200 PAs, that puts him in the same company as:
Pat Burrell (80.31)
Carlos Quentin (79.95)
BJ Upton (79.69)
Ryan Braun (79.16)
Manny Ramirez (78.30)
Seems to me that he is a guy who can put bat on ball at an average rate. It’s just that when he does he isn’t hitting it very hard at all. This might account for his .202 BABIP.