Comments on: Hidden Gem: Ramon Troncoso

By: Trev

Trev — Fri, 05 Jun 2009 07:20:46 +0000

Props to Dave. As I write this Troncoso is 3rd in WPA for relievers. And even if you take LI out he’s still 14th in WPA/LI.

By: Tymathee

Tymathee — Fri, 19 Dec 2008 21:13:32 +0000

I love Troncoso. I was very surprised when he made the club out of spring training and loved watching him pitch. The super sinker is one of my favorite pitches to watch and also why i think his batted balls in play avg is so high. He throws it so hard, that it gets hard back into the infield and makes it out of the infield. Also, when you figure in that Jeff Kent was the starting 2nd and Furcal was out for most of the year, I think Troncoso will be much more effective with Loney, DeWitt, Furcal and Blake all back. I can easily see him posting a sub 3.50 ERA next year and be a solid middle reliever.

By: Dillon Tung

Dillon Tung — Fri, 19 Dec 2008 21:00:08 +0000

The ‘08 BA handbook doesn’t report him having a curve, so I wonder if it’s something he’s developed recently? His debut was impressive, I didn’t think I’d be reading an article comparing him to Carmona, but definitely looking forward to him in ‘09.

By: Dave Cameron

Dave Cameron — Wed, 17 Dec 2008 19:23:05 +0000

I realize that I didn’t talk about his minor league performances much, but don’t worry, I wasn’t basing my analysis off of just 38 major league innings. In a blog post format, I can’t always lay out all the details, and this post was already pretty long.

I’ll offer the same comment as I did above – let’s try to find a guy who has a 93 MPH fastball and posted a 60% GB% and a 2/1 K/BB rate in the minors and didn’t turn into a good major league pitcher. With that kind of sinker, you don’t have to miss a ton of bats in order to be good. That Troncoso has been able to get a decent amount of strikeouts while sustaining a Derek Lowe type groundball rate is extremely encouraging.

By: Jay Jaffe

Jay Jaffe — Wed, 17 Dec 2008 19:13:31 +0000

As a Dodger fan I’d love it if Troncoso were to pan out as more than just a middle reliever, but I’m skeptical of this analysis for two main reasons.

First, it’s based on all of 38 major league innings, which is a pretty small sample to get excited about. He’s faced 160 big-league hitters. No way do we have enough info on him.

Second, nothing in Troncoso’s track record suggests he’ll maintain this strikeout rate. He’s got 246 minor league innings under his belt, innings where he was often on the old side for his level. In that time his strikeout rate is 7.2 per nine, and that’s unadjusted, going all the way down to rookie ball. Once you adjust for level, it’s below 5.0 per nine.

Pitchers don’t develop in a linear fashion, of course; learning a new pitch or ironing out one’s mechanics can lead to huge breakthroughs. But seems far too early to decide that Troncoo has done so based on the way our very limited sample size runs counter to his track record.

By: Dave Cameron

Dave Cameron — Wed, 17 Dec 2008 13:53:54 +0000

Age/Level for pitchers really doesn’t matter all that much. Pitchers don’t follow the hitter aging curve, so being a 25-year-old minor league arm doesn’t mean that a pitcher is near his peak already.

Feel free to find an example of a guy with a 60% GB% and a 2/1 K/BB rate in the minors that throws 93 and couldn’t hack it in the majors. Good luck.

By: kensai

kensai — Wed, 17 Dec 2008 06:37:49 +0000

Jonathan-His tRA last year already put him at being a relatively useful major league reliever.

By: JWay

JWay — Wed, 17 Dec 2008 03:11:27 +0000

Dave do you have like a top 10 sleeper list?

By: Jonathan Lam

Jonathan Lam — Wed, 17 Dec 2008 02:48:33 +0000

I’m not as optimistic. Troncoso has been old for every level and has been used almost exclusively as a reliever. Carmona was much younger and used as a starter. Troncoso hasn’t exactly set the minor leagues on fire, either. In fact, accounting for Troncoso’s age and relative performance as a reliever, he looks downright ordinary. And by ordinary, I mean not a quality major league arm.

Because Troncoso has managed to get his foot in the proverbial door, I won’t completely rule out the possibility of his becoming a productive pitcher, but if he does, he will be merely useful to a ballclub, not dominant. And his usefulness will wear out rather quickly. He will not have a long career. The very upside for Troncoso is something like Donn Pall numbers. Of course, all of this is contingent on him not fading into oblivion like I think is probable.

By: JWay

JWay — Tue, 16 Dec 2008 23:58:53 +0000

Fantasy alert? :)