Comments on: Hideki Matsui: More Chameleon than Godzilla http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/hideki-matsui-more-chameleon-than-godzilla/ Daily baseball statistical analysis and commentary Sun, 21 Mar 2010 15:13:36 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.2 hourly 1 By: james wilson http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/hideki-matsui-more-chameleon-than-godzilla/#comment-93922 james wilson Fri, 28 Aug 2009 14:37:46 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=8761#comment-93922 In addition to those warnings, he is hitting at new Yankee stadium, and in a good lineup. In addition to those warnings, he is hitting at new Yankee stadium, and in a good lineup.

]]> By: Nick http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/hideki-matsui-more-chameleon-than-godzilla/#comment-93868 Nick Fri, 28 Aug 2009 07:32:04 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=8761#comment-93868 Home road splits are a bad way of valuing hitters. They eliminate half a season of data from each player, which is never a good thing. It could be that Matsui simply had his hot streaks on the road, and Bradeley on home. That wouldn't be a park affect, it would just be luck. Park adjusting things is always the right way to go. From Statcorner, Bradley's park adjusted wOBA was .429 last year vs. a .389 mark for Matsui this year. Home road splits are a bad way of valuing hitters. They eliminate half a season of data from each player, which is never a good thing. It could be that Matsui simply had his hot streaks on the road, and Bradeley on home. That wouldn’t be a park affect, it would just be luck.

Park adjusting things is always the right way to go. From Statcorner, Bradley’s park adjusted wOBA was .429 last year vs. a .389 mark for Matsui this year.

]]> By: JH http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/hideki-matsui-more-chameleon-than-godzilla/#comment-93824 JH Thu, 27 Aug 2009 22:03:07 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=8761#comment-93824 I'm usually 100% on board with the analysis here, but this one's kind of a dud for me. Matsui has an inflated HR/FB% playing in a hitter-friendly environment, and has a .260 BABIP. Normalizing both numbers he looks pretty much exactly the way I think most people view him: a pretty good hitter who'd be a nice 2-3 year sign at a modest salary (say, $7-8 million per) to play DH. I’m usually 100% on board with the analysis here, but this one’s kind of a dud for me. Matsui has an inflated HR/FB% playing in a hitter-friendly environment, and has a .260 BABIP. Normalizing both numbers he looks pretty much exactly the way I think most people view him: a pretty good hitter who’d be a nice 2-3 year sign at a modest salary (say, $7-8 million per) to play DH.

]]> By: CJ http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/hideki-matsui-more-chameleon-than-godzilla/#comment-93777 CJ Thu, 27 Aug 2009 18:34:33 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=8761#comment-93777 I see the Seattle Mariners being a possible or even probable destination. Safeco field is a good fit for lefties, they need a bat for their lineup and don't really have a DH, and have some money to spend. On the other side, Seattle should be an attractive team for Hideki due to the proximity to Japan and the Japanese players on the roster. I see the Seattle Mariners being a possible or even probable destination. Safeco field is a good fit for lefties, they need a bat for their lineup and don’t really have a DH, and have some money to spend. On the other side, Seattle should be an attractive team for Hideki due to the proximity to Japan and the Japanese players on the roster.

]]> By: JoeyO http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/hideki-matsui-more-chameleon-than-godzilla/#comment-93732 JoeyO Thu, 27 Aug 2009 15:56:47 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=8761#comment-93732 Bradley might be considered a good fielder, but he wasnt able to play the field 3 days in a row without hurting himself (or feeling compelled to complain about being hurt), negating defensive value. Also, his season was only arguably better. Sure, his straigh slash line might look amazing, but it was because he just had an unbelievable (as in, "yeah right that will happen again") line in Texas, like so many before him Sure, Bradley .321/.436/.563/.999, 163 OPS+ to Matsui .271/.361/.530/.891. 130 OPS+ Milton looks better. but those home/road splits MB Home .358/.466/.679/1.145 MB Away ..290/.410/.462/.872 and all of a sudden you realize Matsui was much better on neutral ground. Matsui on the other hand has a 1.004 OPS on the road to .798 at home - his overall numbers are destroyed by new Yankee stadium, as apposed to Bradleys being completely created by the Ballpark. Bradley might be considered a good fielder, but he wasnt able to play the field 3 days in a row without hurting himself (or feeling compelled to complain about being hurt), negating defensive value.

Also, his season was only arguably better. Sure, his straigh slash line might look amazing, but it was because he just had an unbelievable (as in, “yeah right that will happen again”) line in Texas, like so many before him

Sure,
Bradley .321/.436/.563/.999, 163 OPS+
to
Matsui .271/.361/.530/.891. 130 OPS+
Milton looks better.

but those home/road splits
MB Home .358/.466/.679/1.145
MB Away ..290/.410/.462/.872

and all of a sudden you realize Matsui was much better on neutral ground. Matsui on the other hand has a 1.004 OPS on the road to .798 at home – his overall numbers are destroyed by new Yankee stadium, as apposed to Bradleys being completely created by the Ballpark.

]]> By: Jason http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/hideki-matsui-more-chameleon-than-godzilla/#comment-93707 Jason Thu, 27 Aug 2009 12:55:01 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=8761#comment-93707 Or Jason Giambi! D'oh! =D Or Jason Giambi! D’oh! =D

]]> By: Rob in CT http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/hideki-matsui-more-chameleon-than-godzilla/#comment-93703 Rob in CT Thu, 27 Aug 2009 12:21:22 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=8761#comment-93703 Only an AL team that wants a DH (never to play the field) should even consider him. Solid hitter, as long as the knees hold up (therein lies the problem). Only an AL team that wants a DH (never to play the field) should even consider him. Solid hitter, as long as the knees hold up (therein lies the problem).

]]> By: scatterbrian http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/hideki-matsui-more-chameleon-than-godzilla/#comment-93694 scatterbrian Thu, 27 Aug 2009 06:41:15 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=8761#comment-93694 .230 BABIP, 11 HR, 215 PA at home .293 BABIP, 12 HR, 185 PA on the road .230 BABIP, 11 HR, 215 PA at home
.293 BABIP, 12 HR, 185 PA on the road

]]> By: Nick http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/hideki-matsui-more-chameleon-than-godzilla/#comment-93689 Nick Thu, 27 Aug 2009 05:33:34 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=8761#comment-93689 Except Bradely's always been a good fielder, and his season was significantly better than Matsui's this year. Except Bradely’s always been a good fielder, and his season was significantly better than Matsui’s this year.

]]> By: The A Team http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/hideki-matsui-more-chameleon-than-godzilla/#comment-93685 The A Team Thu, 27 Aug 2009 04:34:20 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=8761#comment-93685 I'm waiting to see Billy Beane snag him for peanuts, watch him put together a huge season, and then collect 2 picks when JP Ricciardi signs him to a 2 year, 18 million deal. O wait, I'm thinking of Frank Thomas. I’m waiting to see Billy Beane snag him for peanuts, watch him put together a huge season, and then collect 2 picks when JP Ricciardi signs him to a 2 year, 18 million deal. O wait, I’m thinking of Frank Thomas.

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