Comments on: Highs and Lows of UZR 2007-9: Bay

By: wobatus

wobatus — Wed, 21 Apr 2010 14:58:21 +0000

UZR for 2009 has been changed with the UZR update. He now is UZR +1.9 in 2009 and a 5 WAR player last year. Of course, he was still “meh” in most prior years, but this issue was one of the more dominant themes this offseason, how bad a fielder Bay was, its impact on his WAR, how bad his Mets contract was, how Cameron compared to him, how Willingham compared to him. To some degree, this changes that debate at least somewhat.

By: john

john — Thu, 12 Nov 2009 01:09:40 +0000

UZR punishes BAY for being a conservative ball player, I have watched him for years ,he makes the plays ,is able to cover a lot of ground but does not take any undo risk, the same can be said with his stolen base total and probably to a lesser extent his K’s.

By: BX

BX — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 23:42:48 +0000

I can’t wait to see where Dunn and Giambi rank, if they do.

By: Big Oil

Big Oil — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 15:46:29 +0000

Source for response to comment question:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/confused-says-what-getting-to-know-fangraphs-stats/#comments

By: Big Oil

Big Oil — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 15:23:56 +0000

I’ve been thinking the same thing concerning total fielding area. Take a look back at the post by tangotiger and his response on a summary of UZR:

“UZR

Suppose you know how often a ball is bit at the 45-foot mark between 2B and 3B, and suppose you know that the average SS turns all balls hit to that spot into an out 80% of the time. Suppose that Jimmy Rollins gets 100 plays like that, and he turns 90 of them into an out. We say that Rollins is +10 plays above average.

UZR looks at each foot mark between 3B and 2B, and looks to see how often all SS made an out at those marks, and goes through the exercise above.

(Actually, not each foot, but each angle. Same thing.)

Not only the vector, but also the distance from home plate is considered. Again, it’s the same exercise, but more variables are considered.

Not only vector and distance, but whether it’s a GB, FB, LD, Pop. And the hardness hit of the batted ball. And whether the pitcher is a GB pitcher or not. And the park. And the runners on base and outs. And if the batter is lefty or righty.

Now, it doesn’t necessarily break each play out into its own bucket, because otherwise, you won’t have enough other plays from other SS to compare against from the same bucket. So, it buckets a certain number of those variables, and applies adjustments for the other variables.

At its most basic, it answers this question: “Given that an average fielder faces this exact distribution of batted balls, how many outs did our fielder actually record against the expectation?””

Solely looking at the last question posed, you would have to think the size of LF in Fenway would have an affect, perhaps more substantial than any other park in baseball, on UZR. The Crawford boxes would also have an affect by this logic. The converse is Coors, which IMO has one of the largest outfields in baseball (not having looked at total dimensions).

By: heyyoo

heyyoo — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 14:48:51 +0000

Fiedling Bible

Manny

2004 -11
2005 -12
2006 -11
2007 -14
2008 – 3
2009 – 7

Bay

2004 +5
2005 0
2006 2
2007 -8
2008 -8
2009 -1

FWIW, Cameron

2004 -3
2005 0
2006 +3
2007 +5
2008 +7
2009 +3

By: Judy

Judy — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 14:14:02 +0000

Of course he isn’t, neither is Bay, neither are some of the other guys who might roam around major league OFs.

By: Southsider

Southsider — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 13:58:59 +0000

Or the fact Manny is just NOT a good fielder?

By: Southsider

Southsider — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 13:58:04 +0000

Exactly, a team like Boston can afford to overpay or make a mistake or two, or three and not really have any ill effects on their future success and payroll. It will always be bloated. Bay/Holliday, they would both be fine for Boston.

By: Judy

Judy — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 13:55:15 +0000

Well, I do think there’s something a tad suspicious about the fact that Manny’s the worst and Bay’s just bad in a more ordinary way, until they get swapped for each other, then Bay becomes the worst while Manny becomes the one who’s just bad in a more ordinary way. I believe there’s a pretty good chance that Manny makes the cut on this list of the worst of the worst over Bay if they were never traded for each other.