Comments on: Holliday and Home/Road Splits

By: Bob

Bob — Fri, 02 Oct 2009 20:57:35 +0000

Another stellar piece of Dave Cameron statistical analysis.

Matt Holliday 2008 road stats – .308/.405/.486
Matt Holliday 2009 stats (Oct 2) – .311/.390/.514
Matt Holliday 2009 ZIPS Proj – .289/.367/.486
Matt Holliday 2009 CHONE proj – .286/.357/.479

By: Felonius_Monk

Felonius_Monk — Tue, 22 Sep 2009 10:18:16 +0000

TOLAXOR! Awesome.

By: Kincaid

Kincaid — Tue, 22 Sep 2009 00:36:57 +0000

Per Retrosheet gamelogs:

Typical HFA is about .012 points wOBA (from 2000-2008, at least). The Rockies hit about .066 points wOBA higher in Coors than on the road (also 2000-2008). Their opponents hit about .019 points wOBA higher in Coors than against the Rockies at their own home park. So the difference between the boost the Rockies get from hitting in Coors and the boost their opponents get from playing in Coors is significantly greater than the typical .012 point advantage in wOBA the home team enjoys. A small amount of that is probably just from the fact that Coors wOBA is on a higher scale than at other parks, so the absolute difference should be a little higher, but most of it is probably the adjustment factor the road teams face.

By: Neil

Neil — Mon, 21 Sep 2009 20:18:20 +0000

Question: If it takes Rockies a while to get acclimated on the road, wouldn’t away teams also be un-acclimated when they show up at Coors Field? Does anyone have stats that show home team batting statistics vs. road team batting statistics at Coors Field? Then compare that to the stats overall (or overall xCoors). If that argument – a big part of the reason the Rockies hit worse outside Coors has to do with adjusting to the altitude or what have you – holds water, I’d expect to see the Rockies’ Coors vs. non-Coors numbers are much better than the other teams’ Coors vs. non-Coors numbers. I don’t know if this is the case, but I’m hoping someone has the numbers handy…

By: DavidCEisen

DavidCEisen — Mon, 21 Sep 2009 17:34:18 +0000

ZiPS is projecting a .205 ISO for the rest of the year. Don’t know if there was some kind of error beforehand or what.

By: Kincaid

Kincaid — Mon, 21 Sep 2009 10:54:14 +0000

Pretty much every argument against using just his road stats to determine his neutral park value applies here as well.

By: pft

pft — Mon, 21 Sep 2009 07:46:04 +0000

If you define home as the NL, and away as the AL, Holliday certainly prefers home cooking. I doubt any AL teams will be looking at Holliday when he becomes a FA.

By: Rockiesmagicnumber

Rockiesmagicnumber — Sun, 20 Sep 2009 23:29:24 +0000

Nonsense, maybe, but you have to take it into account at some point. I can understand a 20-30 point wOBA swing from home to road, but when a guy is an all star at home and a bench player on the road, there’s probably more to it than simply a familiarity issue.

That said, there is a decrease of .035 in terms of OPS from home to road in the NL, .038.

By: TOLAXOR

TOLAXOR — Sun, 20 Sep 2009 22:05:49 +0000

THE WAY I READ IT, HITTING BEHIND MR. ALBERT PUJOLS IS SIMILAR TO HITTING IN COORS FIELD???!!!

By: Wally

Wally — Sun, 20 Sep 2009 21:54:23 +0000

I see Zips projecting .191 ISO now. It would seem Dave got a little carried away and trusted the projections to be correct a little too much.