Holliday Hype Still on Holiday
Matt Holliday is one of the best players in baseball. Joey Votto currently has a so-slight-it-is-meaningless lead in Wins Above Replacement among National League players over Holliday despite Holliday missing time at the beginning of the season recovering from an appendectomy. Holliday (201) is second only to his teammate Lance Berkman in wRC+ (213), and plays superior defense to Berkman.
Holliday’s excellence isn’t a recent development. From 2007 to the present, Holliday has accumulated more WAR (27.6) than any other position players in baseball other than acknowledged-best-in-the-business Albert Pujols (34.3) and the similarly underrated Chase Utley (28.6). Of course, there is a distinction between true talent and observed performance, and the uncertainty involved, e.g., with defensive metrics means that we don’t know “for sure” where Holliday ranks, but you get the idea. It is easy enough to see how good Holliday has been and continues simply by looking at his player page. He’s been just about as good or better than Carl Crawford each of the last few years; Crawford has been an excellent player (and very probably still is, despite his dreadful start in Boston), yet, unless I missed it, despite the big eventual payday, Holliday’s free agency did not receive the hype that Crawford’s did. Indeed, relative to his peers-in-performance, Holliday has not received much national attention lately. Why might that be?
One simple suggestion would be that he has not played in a “big market,” spending the first years of his career in Colorado, part of a season in Oakland, then getting the big contract in Midwestern St. Louis. Location probably has something to do with it, and, as Bill James has pointed out, players that move from team-to-team tend to get less recognition. However, I think we can point to more specific issues in Holliday’s case.
One likely factor is a lingering perception that he is merely a “product of Coors field.” This topic could be a whole series of posts in itself. Suffice it to say that I eagerly await the moment when some player’s Hall of Fame case gets torpedoed because Jeff Pearlman overheard someone say that that player once spent half a season playing for the Rockies. Yes, Holliday had what will probably end up being the best season of his career with the Rockies in 2007, a season in which they made their surprising run to the World Series. Holliday actually came in second in the National League MVP voting that season, which wouldn’t have been so bad if he had lost to David Wright, Albert Pujols, Chipper Jones, or Chase Utley rather than Jimmy Rollins. That’s yet another story. However, even after adjusting for the relative value of runs in Coors, Holliday still had one of the best seasons in baseball.
Many will want to point out that after being traded to Oakland before the 2009 season, he hit “badly,” which thus shows that he was previously living off his home park. While he didn’t reach his earlier standards, he hardly hit “badly,” unless .286/.376/.454 (125 wRC+) in a severe pitcher’s park is bad. Moreover, even 400 PA is only a partial season. If you want to look at partial seasons as having meaning for evaluating a player, Holliday killed the ball for the rest of the year after his trade to St. Louis, hitting .353/.419/.604 in another pitcher’s park, for a 164 wRC+ that would be the best season of his career.
The sample size of a partial season aside, one might make a case on the difference between the quality of pitching in the National and American Leagues, but it isn’t that big, and it would not explain why Holliday hasn’t received the recognition of other NL players. Nonetheless, the Oakland interlude probably fed into the myth that Holliday is a “Coors product,” despite the fact that he’s crushed the ball ever since. But even if the raw numbers have not been quite as impressive, he’s been in a pitchers park, and the overall run environment in baseball has also been down.
Another factor may be that Holliday has been overshadowed by his teammates. In this way, Holliday resembles fellow underrated player Chase Utley (I thought about titling this piece “Holliday is the New Utley,” but went for the pure cheese instead), who has been overshadowed in the past by good-but-not-as-good-as-him teammates Ryan Howard and Jimmy Rollins (I suspect being a second baseman has also effected Utley’s relative lack of recognition, but that’s another post). In St. Louis, Holliday has been overshadowed by Pete Sampras Tim Duncan Albert Pujols and probably Adam Wainwright and Chris Carpenter, as well. Everyone’s Favorite Genius Tony LaRussa probably takes up his share of the attention as well. In Colorado, while Holliday’s second-place MVP finish in 2007 shows that at one point he was getting some love, it was probably also mitigated by the good seasons from longtime Rockie Todd Helton and Troy Tulowitzki‘s tremendous rookie year. As mentioned above, moving on from Colorado has probably weakened the identification of Holliday with that World Series run in the minds of some. These reasons are more understandable than the obsession with Coors field, if no more fair to Holliday.
There might be other factors. Holliday’s gaffe in the 2009 playoffs may have overshadowed the fact that he’s generally considered to be a pretty good fielder. I can’t recall Holliday ever making much of a big deal in the press or saying anything outlandish. He doesn’t strike me as particularly quotable (correct me on this if I’m wrong). If he wants more attention he could try something like one of the following: take up an addiction then overcome it to much public fanfare, get into fights with umpires, be quite vocal about his religious beliefs, or say that he doesn’t believe that Bud Selig is a U.S. citizen. All gold. There’s always the chance that Tony LaRussa will take an irrational disliking to him. It worked for Scott Rolen and Adam Kennedy! Then again, maybe Holliday doesn’t want more attention, and that’s the issue.
Of course, that’s not the kind of attention I’m talking about. And really, it doesn’t matter. Matt Holliday is one of the better players in baseball, and I think most would acknowledge that after just a bit of reflection. I’m just surprised that more people aren’t talking about it.
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I have thought about this exact subject many times. I think one issue with Holliday’s perceived value (in the “stats community,” anyway) is that he doesn’t do the things we typically get amped up about. He doesn’t walk a ton, he doesn’t hit a ton of homers, his defense isn’t out-of-this-world great…no, he is just good at everything.
I remembered when Holliday signed his big deal guys like Rob Neyer said Holliday was only one of baseball’s very good players, not a great one. Baseball Prospectus also said basically the exact same thing in its annual publication. All this despite the fact that, according to WAR, he is the third best player in the league over a sustained period of time.
That’s why this is so strange. Saber people were ignoring the advanced metrics which showed that Holliday was in fact a great player and going with some narrative that he was just above-average. You can say they based it on the Coors effect, but since most metrics adjust for park factor, that’s not a valid excuse.
Great article by the way. Glad someone pointed this out.
I remember when my Mets chased Holliday a couple of winters ago and ended up settling for Jason Bay because Holliday’s price tag was supposedly too high.
Man, they shit the bed on that one.
They’ve had to change the sheets many times over.
Maaaaaaaaaadooooooooooooooooff!
Hey! Get your own handle. I’ve been posting as “Detroit Michael” here and on other baseball websites for years.
Please?
Nah, I’m good.
I find it interesting that perhaps the National League’s best position player (Holliday) and perhaps best pitcher (Halladay) have a last name that is pronounced (almost) identically.
Kind of like if the worst pitcher in the American League had a last name that was prounced “Jetar”.
Jeter was pretty much taking it in the pooper all year until those two homeruns the other night.
Let’s hope he resumes his imitation of Yuni Betancourt shortly.
boom, roasted
Oh, I’m sorry, I was busy banging Minka Kelly on a giant pile of money in my mansion while working on my Hall of Fame speech, so I missed your comment.
Boom. Roasted.
HAH!
Phil Rizzuto = the Scooter
Derek Jeter = the Pooper
Holliday’s performance over the last 2+ seasons has shown he is an excellent player whether he is hitting in Coors Field or not, but at the time of his free agency he had only played one season out of Colorado. And his home / away splits during the Colorado years were massive; (OPS) 2004: 1.009 / .654; 2005: 1.002 / .729; 2006: 1.132 / .819; 2007: 1.157 / .860; 2008: .997 / .892. At home he hit better than Pujols; on the road he was more like Vernon Wells (interestingly enough, Pujols (career split 1.050 / 1.038) hits like Pujols regardless of where he plays). So I think it was quite reasonable that teams may have been skeptical about whether he could produce at the same level outside of Coors before investing $100+ million in Holliday, and so there was less hype over his free agency.
You beat me to it. +1
Yes, true Artie X Corduroy, but if the Mets had to do it over again they would gladly spend $50 million more for Holliday than Bay – the difference between the players isn’t close.
But you’re right, people had legit concerns about Holliday at the time.
Holliday is one of those guys where all the peripherals don’t seem to add up to the great player he is, but then you see him hit a baseball and you think, “Oh, now I get it!” He just hits every ball so dang hard, every grounder, liner, and fly ball just crack off his bat in a way that’s very rare. His consistently high BABIPs probably looked like a product of Coors, but when you see him hit you know why he’s able to keep it up after leaving.
BTB posted a graphic earlier this year showing Holliday as being the best LF in baseball over the last 5 (?) years … and it wasn’t that close. I’m not sure what version of WAR was used, but it was probably brWAR.
I think there is something to the overshadowed star comment. The Cards have the “Pyramid of Stars” with AP5, CC29, and AW50. As a somewhat new Cardinal, many fans may not realize that they now have 4 Pillars, so to speak. The comparison to Utley may be a very good one. Not dominant in any one category, but very good in many.
Scott Rolen is kind of a different dude. Big guy that played tennis in HS instead of football. His issues with TLR had more to do with disagreements on Rolen’s severity of injuries. Post-season performance adds to the situation as well, as Scottie laid an egg in the 04 WS, and then in the 06 NLCS, Rolen was “hurt” and Spezio stepped in with a great series. All of the sudden, Rolen could play and hit what could have been the go ahead HR if it hadn’t been for Chavez’s great catch. Instead the honor went to Molina after he took Heilman deep, and Wain had the memorable K of Beltran. TLR does like like guys that he feels give it all, such as Rolen, Drew, and Rasmus to name a few. Meanwhile “gamers” like Schumaker will always have a spot.
Back to Holliday, he is an incredible athletic specimen. I don’t recall his exact attributes, but it’s something like 6’4 235-245. For Comparison that’s what Urlacher was as a young NFL defensive player of the year.
My only concern with Holliday is his big leg raise as timing mechanism. There are times when pitchers throw 3 pedestrian fastballs right by him, and I sometimes worry that toward the latter part of his contract that might happen more often.
Not only did Holliday have the fielding mistake in the playoffs, where Franklin fell apart, but earlier he was up with the bases loaded and 1 out and took 3 straight fastballs for strikes, that threw me for a loop. As the 4 hitter in that situation, those 3 fastballs would seem to be THE pitches that you’d be looking to crush in that situation.
Holliday, Helton, and Walker may be 3 guys that find themselves in very similar HoF situations when it’s all said and done.
you said all of the sudden…wtf man, surely you know that’s not a thing…
If not for your writing this topic could be very cvonlouted and oblique.
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The most indelible image of Holliday in my mind will forever be his face-first dive into the plate in the 13th inning of the 163rd game of 2007 to cap off that insane streak to make the playoffs. Everyone was going nuts about whether or not he got his fingers under Barrett’s cleat. One of the most exciting games of the past several years.
That career triple slash of .319/.391/.545 is pretty damned excellent. Holliday has likely been hurt by all of the above issues, and by the fact that his consistency is a huge part of his excellence. Choo is battling the same problem of being very good at things like patience and baserunning while guys with singular skillsets like Howard or Fielder grab headlines for the long ball…. enough to make you sympathise with Bonds a bit
I think a lot of it might be exactly that really good at everything, not necessarily outstanding at any one thing (same for Utley, at least in the more mainstream circles). He also has a very high career BABIP so perhaps he’s been dismissed as ‘lucky’ by the saber crowd to some extent, though .351 over almost 4500 PA means he probably just hits the crap out of the ball.
I’ve always been a huge holliday fan. I turned over in my grave when Dave Cameron said Mark Teixeira was better, and that WAR didn’t tell the whole story.
Did I miss something – is “Joe” a zombie or a vampire or something? Baseball fans do trend older than other sports, but a firm grip on the in the grave crowd could be huge for MLB!
Matt Holliday hits the ball very hard, slot.
I would love to see the average velocity coming off his bat as compared to others. Swinging through/under pitches can be a concern, but not his quality of contact.
I would have figured that his BABIP success would be chalked up to all that outfield green in Coors.
But Holliday seems to be that guy that causes 3B’s to play “a step back”.
Now that it’s been brought up a detailed analysis of his BABIP breakdown could confirm/deny his success. Since he’s not likely beating out many grounders with speed, if his BA on those BIP is higher then that likely speaks to how hard he hits balls, even grounders.
Luck on BABIP is something that should be used for a unique month or even season, but no one has BABIP luck for a career. Home/Awat BABIP could indicate any “Coors Effect” on BIP.
His Coors babip is a massive .381 in 1500 PA per BR. That’s about a third of his career, so that should leave his BABIP everywhere else somewhere in the .335 range which is still obviously quite good. I’m too lazy to do the math exactly.
“I’m too lazy to do the math exactly.”
Same.
Feeling slightly less lazy in the morning, outside of Coors he’s got 672 non HR hits on 2003 BIP, for a BABIP of .3355. Should have stuck with the envelope math.
His BABIP is .359 at Busch so maybe he really just likes sleeping the same place every night.
I don’t know how many of you have seen holliday in person but he’s a monster. Even with baggyish baseball jerseys you can still see definition in his shoulders. It’s no wonder he hits the crap out of the ball.
As for the comment in the article about Rollin’s MVP; I think Rollins’ AND Howard’s MVP years were a joke. Were they even top 5 in WAR? Was Rollins’ even top 10?
I think Holliday is underrated because he moved around a lot and now he’s on the same team as the best player in the game. I think another reason is that he hasn’t really hit that many home runs in the past few years. 25, 24, 28 the last 3 years, he’s really productive, but the media doesn’t pick up on it until you’re in the 30s.
So what are his HoF chances?
Bit of a late start (age 24?), but good countables & slash line thus far; v. good scores on BLK/GRY ink
As an aside (but within the spirit of the column) – is anyone worried that Utley is going to lack HoF love due to under appreciation of how good he has been?
- he was on for a short career anyway (due to being held back by PHI – whether rightly or wrongly) and injuries are leaking away his available time to produce the headline numbers sought after by the writers
Another similarity with Utley: their multi-year WAR peaks are similar to low-end HOFers like Andre Dawson, but the relatively late start means their overall chances (especially for traditional voters who heart the counting stats — 3,000 hits!) are down. Utley’s injuries seem like they are going to limit his chances even more. Holliday hasn’t had that problem so far, but he’s going to need to age really well in order to have an outside shot of having a Hall-worthy career.
Of course, the voters will probably penalize him for… and I heard this from a reliable source… he played at Coors for a few seasons.
Re: 2007 MVP.
Holliday has 7.1 WAR, Rollins 6.3 (with a lower UZR than his career average, possibly underselling his actual value). They were both excellent players on good teams. I don’t think you could’ve gone wrong either way. There have been worse tiebreakers than Rollins’ chutzpah in predicting a division title.
Yeah, I liked Holiday for the MVP in 2007, but Rollins had the unusual 4×20 stats + Div title + leadership + outspokeness (and being right) + SS thing going on.
The interesting thing is that WAR (depending on your version) liked Chipper, Wright and Pujols even more!
One of those years where you can make a case for 4-6 guys
Not really. With Rollins there is no case. Rollins only had 3/4 the WAR Pujols had and Pujols even beat him in the traditional triple crown stats. Pretty much the same story with Wright and Chipper. Holliday had one full WAR more plus beating him in the triple crown stats AND hits. Given that Rollins had about 100 more AB than all these other guys due to being in a monster lineup this isn’t even close. He had a “good” season that looked better statistically because of the high number of AB. Rollins 2007 is one of the most undeserving MVPs ever.
I’m not even totally convinced Rollins was the best SS in the NL East that year. He was only marginally better than Hanley Ramirez if better at all.
Matt Holliday did quit Twitter because everyone was making fun of him for liking Creed…. That’s really the only absurd thing he’s done personality wise.
Oh man…. I wish I had known that. Hilarious. Oh, baseball players and their tremendous aesthetic sensibilities…