He likely gets overlooked because of the dissapointing cubs season … Dominated by the attention given to Soriano and Bradley.

Lilly is good; he has been A solid performer for the lovable losers.

12-9, 3.10 ERA, 177 IP, and most importantly, a 4.19 K/BB
His single season best before 2009? 3.16.

3.65 FIP also a career best.

The Cubs could move Jake Fox to 1B, which is probably the only position he’s (close to) capable of playing, aside from the occasional backup at 3B.

DLee does have a no-trade clause, but he would get a good return if he were to be moved.

The Cubs would lose his leadership in a clubhouse without a face, and they’d lose his glove, which would be tough-

Any ideas on who’d they get from Boston? Maybe a 2B/RF guy? Leadoff hitter? Bullpen help? Prospects?

[1] Through 2003, he was a much better player in the 2nd half then he was the in 1st half, perhaps even giving the appearance of being a “slow starter”.
[2] In 2004, he completely flipped to being better in the 1st half than in the 2nd half.

2004 was his first year with the Cubs. This was his first year in Chicago where his 1st half numbers were not well above his 2nd half numbers.

We can speculate why. In the end we end up with varying levels of probability or confidence in our conclusion based on the different weighting we place on various aspects/sources. But, neither of us will be able to say, for certain, why DLee had such a poor start in 09 after being a “1st half player” in Chicago over the last 4 seasons.

His BABIP in the 1st half was way down, and in the 2nd half way up (I’m not one of those that chalks it up to “really bad luck” anbd “really good luck”)

K-rate is about the same, walk rate is down in the 1st half. Makes me wonder if the lower walk rate, combined with the way down BABip, if in the 1st half he was “pressing” due to trying to over-compensate for Aramis’s absence (swinging at pitches he might usually lay off of, perhaps borderline strike/ball pitches on corners, harder pitches to make good contact on), if he was getting pitched differently, or if he was battling through an injury … or some combination of all 3 or something else.

Of course, it’s correlation instead of causation, or luck, or small sample size, or something else … but the one thing it CANNOT be is that not having Ramirez in the lineup affected how Lee was pitched or Lee’s approach at the plate. It has to be *anything* but that because a study examining a general sample has to be apllied to every situation.

God forbid, someone look at something on a case-by-case basis, and consider all of the individual aspects of the situation.

Derrek Lee got healthier and Ramirez returned to the lineup. I’ll leave it to the know-it-alls to determine what % of performance is attributed to each specific aspect.

But, I suppose the fangraph’s opinion is that Ramirez’s absence had no measurable affect on Lee’s performance. *Shrugs* …or Clark’s on McGee and Her, or rickey’s and Canseco’s on Lansford, or Bonds’ on Kent’s performance, etc. You guys let me know when correlation become causation … or what % of influence one situation has on another.

It’s just a coincidence, why don’t I just accept that as indisputable fact?

Maybe. Lee was better in 2009 but Votto holds the slight edge from 2008-09. Consider 2010 to be the tie-breaker.