Comments on: Hot off the Bat

By: cpebbles

cpebbles — Mon, 27 Apr 2009 03:54:44 +0000

Definitely a bit optimistic, but Duncan sure looks like a much better hitter than the ~.800 OPS projections which are drug down by playing through a serious injury last year. I don’t know that anyone has any real certainty just what his true talent level is due to the injury and the fact that he was such a late bloomer, but if I had to guess I’d put him a little north of his ’07. He was victimized by lefties early in his career, but he has visibly improved in that area since.

By: vivaelpujols

vivaelpujols — Mon, 27 Apr 2009 01:08:06 +0000

That was basically his line in his first 600 at bats before he got injured. I don’t know, it may be a little high, but I’ve watched him hit this year and he really looks good. His approach looks a lot better this year (13.6 BB rate) and he still hasn’t really shown the pop that his body lends himself to.

By: R M

R M — Mon, 27 Apr 2009 01:00:45 +0000

That seems a little bit optimistic to me.

By: vivaelpujols

vivaelpujols — Mon, 27 Apr 2009 00:57:02 +0000

The feeling of most Cards fans is that his 2008 season, and the second half of 2007 didn’t really depict Duncan’s true talent level. He was injured badly in 08, and he had to be shut down in 07 as well. In his first ~600 PA, he put up an OPS well over .900. I don’t doubt that he could maintain this years level of success if he stays healthy. His BABIP should regress, however, he hasn’t yet flashed the power that he is capable of. I wouldn’t be surprised if he finished with a .280/.380/.550 line.