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Hot Prospects at the Hot Corner

With news that Pedro Alvarez could be in Pittsburgh within a week, it’s time to start considering candidates for the new No. 1 third base prospect in the minors. Below are five third basemen (plus two bonus prospects) that have been performing well.

Mike Moustakas | Kansas City: Some could argue that Moustakas is already a better prospect than Alvarez. The former No. 1 pick has been on fire this season despite missing much of April due to injury. The left-handed hitter is currently batting .339/.416/.678 with 14 homers in 45 double-A games. Moustakas has been a real run producer in the minors with 54 RBI in 45 games, and a 1.531 OPS with runners in scoring position. He is, though, hitting just .250 in June. If Moustakas can stick at the hot corner, he could be a real stud for the organization. If not, things could get crowded in the outfield.

Miguel Sano | Minnesota: Let’s slide all the way down to the Dominican Summer League where we can find the 17-year-old Sano. One of the top international signees in ’09, the right-handed hitter is holding his own with a triple-slash line of .314/.405/.600 through 11 games. The 6’3” teenager is showing above-average power for his age and even has five walks, which shows good patience for the level he’s playing at. Sano will be stateside before you know it.

Matt Dominguez | Florida: The former 12th-overall pick from the ’07 draft is not lighting the world on fire, but he’s been performing well. Dominguez may never hit for a high average but the above-average fielder is showing good pop with 19 doubles and nine homers. He has a triple-slash line of .247/.322/.455 in 231 at-bats. Keep in mind that Dominguez is still just 20 and playing in double-A.

Matt Davidson | Arizona: One of my personal favorites, Davidson was a supplemental first round pick out of a California high school in ’09. He received a lot of attention after hitting .354/.393/.500 in April but he struck out 21 times with just one walk. The adjustments he’s made since then are nothing short of amazing. Davidson then walked 13 times in May (but with 33 strikeouts) and has since followed that up with seven walks and just six strikeouts through 11 June games. Overall, he’s hitting .302/.380/.502 with good pop in 225 at-bats. What you have here is a smart, coachable player.

Cody Overbeck | Philadelphia: It’s hard to know exactly what the organization has with Overbeck. An over-ager at 24 and in high-A ball, the former University of Mississippi player was also repeating the level for the second straight year. He hit .302/.380/.553 with 11 homers in 215 at-bats. He also significantly improved both his strikeout and walk rates. Overbeck was promoted to double-A recently and made his debut on June 14. Keep an eye on him, as the second half of the minor league season will speak volumes in regards to his future potential.

AL Bonus: Keep an eye on Will Middlebrooks. A 2007 fifth-round pick out of a Texas high school, Boston gave him big money to keep him away from Texas A&M, where he would have played football, as well. He’s currently hitting .286/.360/.432 in 220 high-A at-bats after moving rather slowly during his first three pro seasons. He has very good raw power (18 doubles) but has yet to turn that into over-the-fence pop. Middlebrooks is still learning to identify and hit breaking balls. The 21-year-old has slowed down in June and is batting just .188 for the month.

NL Bonus: Recently known for developing pitching talent, the Rockies organization has some impressive hitters in the minors, too. Third baseman Nolan Arenado began the year in extended spring training but he’s been on fire since being activated in low-A ball. The 19-year-old is hitting .337/.367/.517 through 21 games. He’s also struck out just nine times. More than a third of his hits have been doubles (11 of 30). Arenado was a second round draft pick out of a California high school in ’09.



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Marc Hulet is the second longest serving writer at FanGraphs. His work focuses on prospect analysis, as well as the annual amateur draft. He can be reached via email at: marc.hulet@fangraphs.com, or follow him on Twitter @marchulet.

28 Responses to “Hot Prospects at the Hot Corner”

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  1. odbsol says:

    Just more confirmation that Josh Vitters isn’t the prospect that he could be.

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    • Jilly says:

      He’s 20 years old at AA

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      • Frederick says:

        His ARL is kyute, but he is atrocious.

        .222/.260/.293

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      • Jilly says:

        Eh, he’s had some bad luck, with a luck adjusted line of .282/.316/.362 according to minor league splits. And I realize that still isn’t that impressive, but with those numbers he’s one hot streak away from having a damn good line, and with how streaky he’s been to this point in his career that’s not something to scoff at.

        I’m not complaining that he’s not on this list, but a bad month+ in AA for a 20 year old doesn’t really mean anything.

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  2. No Lonnie Chisenhall? What gives?

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  3. James says:

    The article only profiled 5 with 2 extra. Obviously some would have to be omitted.

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  4. Matt says:

    FYI overbeck played all of last year with a sports hernia, which might explain the struggles. his run at AA this year will go a long way to determine if he has any prospect future.

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  5. True, but I’d put Chisenhall with Moustakas and ahead of everyone else listed.

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  6. Kurt says:

    Dominguez has an awful swing

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  7. Kurt says:

    Chisenhall being left off is a travesty, he’s catching fire since coming back from his injury. Moustakas>the rest though

    Gotta love Davidson too if the walk/strikeout trend continues and he maintains this power(league leading 19 doubles)

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  8. Lance W says:

    How is Josh Bell looking these days?

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    • .270/.310/.439 at triple-A norfolk. He hit a 2B and HR yesterday. He’s got 14 BB to 56 Ks this season though.

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      • Greg says:

        .303/.385/.485 in June with 5BB and 6K in 33AB

        Sure it’s a small sample, but he had 9 walks in all of April and May (194AB), so his eye is getting better. He’s gotten hot.

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  9. danielj says:

    I’d put Moustakas ahead of Chisenhall – IF Mous can stay at 3rd. Many seem to doubt that he can, though (I have no idea on that score). Chisenhall went into a deep slide while he tried to play through a bum shoulder (something like 4 for 45 or so). Since he’s come off the DL, he’s been outstanding.

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  10. tpain says:

    Yeah, was just going to say, Chisenhall is only .283/.358/.434 on the year after a SLOW start, probably due to that rotator cuff injury, but has been .333/.404/.738 since he got off the DL.

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  11. jinaz says:

    I really have no clue here, but how does Brett Wallace rate against these guys? He’s apparently pretty close to a call-up. Thoughts?
    -j

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  12. Joe says:

    What about Alex Gordon? He’s the next George Brett.

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  13. Marc says:

    Good call on Davidson. Great to see him playing well, especially with Borchering being sub par.

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  14. AndrewYF says:

    Also don’t forget 22 year old Brandon Laird, who’s destroying all comers with a .305/.349/.550 line in the pitching-dominated Eastern League. He’s not going to be the top 3B prospect by any means, but he certainly deserves a mention.

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