Houston’s Best Trade Chip
In the midst of a disastrous season, the Astros seem to finally admit that they need to rebuild. Their franchise pitcher, Roy Oswalt, has requested a trade, and the team seems willing to accommodate him in finding a new home. Besides Cliff Lee, Oswalt is the most talked about name on the market as we head toward the trade deadline.
I wonder, however, if Oswalt is merely the Astros’ second most marketable pitcher. Hiding in the shadows, Brett Myers is quietly putting together an excellent season, and while he doesn’t come with Oswalt’s pedigree, neither does he come with the baggage of a huge contract and a no-trade clause.
Oswalt is the better pitcher, certainly. Going forward, ZiPS projects Oswalt to throw 110 innings and allow 47 runs, while Myers is projected to pitch 80 innings and allow 40 runs. Given that the innings difference will have to be made up by relievers, a team would be projected to save about 10 runs over an equivalent number of innings by acquiring Oswalt instead of Myers.
10 runs, or about one extra win. Is that really worth the cost difference? Myers will cost just over $1 million for the remainder of the 2010 season, while Oswalt’s contract will pay him about $5 million in August and September. For teams with strained budgets, that money could be a significant factor, but of course, the real cost differences kick in next season.
Myers will almost certainly decline his part of the mutual option and become a free agent this winter, so the acquiring team will have no long term commitment, and could potentially even recoup some compensation if they offer Myers arbitration and he signs elsewhere, as he has a chance of pitching himself into Type B free agent status.
Oswalt, on the other hand, is due $16 million 2011 and either another $16 million in 2012 or a $2 million buyout of the final year. Even if the acquiring team exercises the buyout, they will end up having paid $22 million for a little less than one and a half season’s of Oswalt’s services.
There’s a pretty good case to be made that a team would be better off with Myers and the $21 million they would save by going for the lesser Astros arm, which would give them more flexibility to make other moves to additionally improve their roster. Oswalt is the better pitcher, but it’s hard to argue that the gap is large enough to justify the differences in salary.
The Astros will almost certainly trade both pitchers at some point in the next month. Just don’t be surprised if they get a better return in prospects for Myers than they do for Oswalt.
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agree with the premise of the article
agree with the conculsion.
not for the reasons you think
When any conclusion goes along the lines of “just dont be surprised…” and it involves the astros, I promise you I wont be surprised. I wouldnt be surprised if the astros get back Aumont, Kyle Kendrick and an unknown Japanese player who isn’t even contracted to the phillies for Myers.
I wouldnt be surprised if they gave up oswalt for the rights to braden looper.
I wouldnt be surprised if they guaranteed oswalt’s extension. .
I won’t be surprised with the astros dave, and I can lump most of your readers in my boat I think.
That doesnt change from the otherwise excellent article.
This is the Astros we’re talking about and I wouldn’t be too surprised if they hold onto both of them. Myers has been very consistent this year and in their strange little fantasy world, they may want to sign him for a few more years in hopes of contending. I can’t believe the Astros are actually rebuilding until I see it start to happen first.
This is the kind of thinking that had the Phillies sign Joe Blanton to an extension.
I’m confused. Dave, didn’t you post an article not to long ago making a case for Cliff Lee’s worth. In it you stated that a win is worth 4 mil, but to a playoff contender in July the value is closer to 5 mil. Oswalt you estimate to be worth a win more than Myers for the rest of the year. Oswalt is due 4 mil more than Myers for the season, but at one win more that is a value for an acquiring team. And if the acquiring team has payroll opening up next year, 16 mil for an ace is not bad. But yes, I get your point, it just seems to only apply to a team that cannot pay Oswalt’s salary next year. As a Reds fan, if I can get Oswalt for less than Myers (as you mention would not be surprising), please give me Oswalt.
Wouldn’t Hunter Pence be their best trade chip?
That’s what I was thinking too, based on the title. Based on the actual post though, I think Dave’s including Pence in the Astros’ rebuilding process.
I was thinking the same thing.
They better not get rid of Pence
For a playoff contender, 1 win might actually mean quite a lot in half a season’s worth of playing time.
1 win for the AL/NL East this year is worth a lot to 5 very rich teams in them.
Although, I agree with the article overall, most teams should be looking more for guys like Myers or Millwood than Lee or Oswalt.
Oh, I don’t know. It might not make a huge difference over the regular season, 1 win over half a season, etc., but the difference WILL be big in a short series. A team with Cliff Lee pitching 40% of a 5 game series stands a much better chance of winning that series than one with Kevin Millwood shoring up the back of a rotation.
I agree with Steve above. When considering strictly what they can offer you for the rest of the regular season, Myers is perhaps the more valuable asset, but when you consider that the team that makes this trade is planning for the playoffs, the fact that Oswalt gives you a top-level starter and the matchup advantage most of the time to put out there twice per series, whereas Myers is likely to be a guy who only starts once in the first round and even then, is likely to be the lesser of his matchup, I still find Oswalt the more interesting of the two.
I agree with this 100%, as I stated in my article for Net Dugout.com:
http://netdugout.com/north/2010/06/bard30/houstons-brett-myers-a-trade-target-for-the-twins/
Great article Dave!!
I’m pretty juvenile, but the following line made me giggle…
“Brett Myers is quietly putting together an excellent season, and while he doesn’t come with Oswalt’s pedigree, neither does he come with the baggage…”
http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/articles/2006/10/06/charge_against_pitcher_dismissed/
I agree with the other poster, and that I am assuming Pence is what you rebuild around. 3.5 million in salary and 27 years old? Trading him makes no sense at all.
The Astros need to blow everything up since they have the albatross known as Carlos Lee. Packaging Pence with a player who is tough to trade might be wise(same with Bourn.) 27 years old isn’t exactly young these days…
The Rangers want Oswalt and the Mets want Lee…
I’m still not sold on Wandy Rodriguez being as horrible as he has looked this season. He makes less than Myers, and the past 3 seasons has been one of the better left handed pitchers in the National League. I can’t see the Astros trading their best free agent signing(at a huge bargain)unless they can get rid of dead weight. Also trading for Brett Myers doesn’t tell fans or a team we’re going for it all this year. Oswalt’s name brings that… like Cliff Lee.
What would a team give up for Myers? He’s Houston’s second best pitcher right now, and barely makes 3 million. Ed Wade probably thinks the Stros have another second half run in them like they usually have.
i Agree that trade Bait But this i Like it for this trade for Brett Myers Will Go to Seattle Mariners And for the Houston Astros Will Get Cliff Lee but this is Much Better then trading Roy O.for the Houston Astros Need to Add Another Good Starting Pitcher.for Helping to Rebuild the New Houston Astros.
Why would the Mariners trade Lee for Myers??? That would be retarded unless the Astros had top prospects to throw in, but they don’t have any prospects who’d the Mariners would be interested in.
The Astros have to get younger, and rebuild. Oswalt should be 10-4, and not 5-9. With 13 quality starts out of 15, there’s no way should he be on pace to lose 20 games. They should trade him to a playoff bound team.
As an Astros fan, I wouldn’t mind trading Pence, but the return would have to include a similar, major league ready player at a position of greater need (shortstop, for instance). Like if the Rays were willing to give up Reid Brignac or Jeremy Hellickson for him.
Don’t think I’d do it just for low-level prospects, unlike with Myers or Oswalt. The only reason it makes sense to trade Pence is because the Astros have a lot of outfielders hanging around at AAA/the majors who might be average everyday starters if given the chance.
You’d want a young player to build around starting now.
Agree about Pence, but also think Oswalt should bring in one top two top 5 prospects at least. He will be a difference maker(and teams like the Mets, Rangers, and even Boston or Philly)have the money to take on his contract.
Also an Astros fan here, and Oswalt is throwing as hard as ever, his K/9 is better than it’s been since 2004… He’s only a year older than Cliff Lee, and has a longer, far better career to this point.
The Astros don’t have too many commodities. So both Pence and Oswalt would have to bring in some good prospects. If we trade Pence, he’ll end up a 30-30 guy and hit over .300 again. If we trade Oswalt, he’ll go 55-22 the next 3 seasons with an ERA of about 3.