Comments on: How Johan Santana Succeeds as a Fly Ball Pitcher

By: Dave

Dave — Sat, 17 Oct 2009 16:41:38 +0000

Santana’s GB% “raises the question” of how immutable its importance is for pitching success. “Beg[ing] the question” is a logical fallacy involving circular reasoning, and is commonly misused in manner it was in this article.

By: vivaelpujols

vivaelpujols — Sat, 17 Oct 2009 04:59:30 +0000

I took a look at him a couple of days ago here:

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/blog_article/joel-pineiros-deal-with-dave-duncan/

In short, he’s been throwing a lot more fastballs with added sink, and has been throwing the ball in the bottom third of the strike zone about 3% more of the time. It seems like those are the main factors that have caused his major increase in GB rate.

By: Samuel Lingle

Samuel Lingle — Fri, 16 Oct 2009 21:27:24 +0000

He’s actually throwing a “one-seam sinker” and it’s something he developed before the season started this year. Apparently some of the other guys on the Cards staff have tried it too, like Wainwright, but he only threw a few per game and Pineiro is simply relying on it completely.

As such, considering it’s a new pitch that has led to this change, it’s easy to believe he’ll be able to continue the success. He did have some luck over the course of the season with his HR/F%, but considering he kept the ball down so well, he still would not have given up very many home runs.

The key will be his control; over the last month of the season and in his one playoff start he could not keep the ball down, a far cry from the near legendary level it was during the beginning of the season.

Next season should be an interesting one for him; relying so much on one pitch people are bound to stop swinging at it, but maybe that will add to his K totals as he opts to mix in a few more normal fastballs with the sinker?

I’d just add, be wary of him if he goes somewhere without strong infield defense.

By: Teej

Teej — Fri, 16 Oct 2009 19:54:33 +0000

Considering that GB% tends to stabilize pretty quickly, and that his jumped more than 10 percentage points over his previous career high, I’m inclined to think he’s a changed man. Fangraphs says he threw his fastball(s) 71% of the time in 2009, whereas he was sitting in the high-50% range for most of his career beforehand.

Someone more in the know or with a better grasp of PITCH/fx can break it down better, but it appears that he’s just firing two-seamers in the strike zone.

So my guess is Pineiro’s ground balls are sustainable and he should remain pretty solid as long as he doesn’t go all Fausto and start walking guys like crazy. That said, his walk numbers in 2009 were otherwordly, so I’m not sure if that can hold up. He led all pitchers in BB/9. It might be a career year, but I wouldn’t count on any massive regression to his career norms.

By: Toffer Peak

Toffer Peak — Fri, 16 Oct 2009 19:53:26 +0000

Linked from his player profile page (http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1094&position=P), here’s a good start: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/is-pinerios-newfound-groundball-success-sustainable .

By: Kevin S.

Kevin S. — Fri, 16 Oct 2009 19:34:48 +0000

Or a ‘The Mets bullpen fucking sucked’ issue.

By: joser

joser — Fri, 16 Oct 2009 18:18:19 +0000

Speaking of Joel Piniero, can someone please tell me what’s up with him? Has he completely remade himself, or is this some kind of fluke season that he’ll never live up to again after using it to cash in on the free agent market this offseason? I watched him pitch with the M’s, and saw him make a relief appearance with the BoSox, but the only time I’ve actually seen him pitch this year was his NLDS appearance. I can’t figure him out, and I’d love to know if he really is a completely different pitcher now.

By: Steve C

Steve C — Fri, 16 Oct 2009 17:39:55 +0000

I wonder what effect (affect?) this has on relievers that come in when he leaves the game. If batters keep getting under his pitches and adjust they should be getting a lot of line drives. I wish I knew how to query this stuff.

The only thing I can remember is a lot of Santana’s games getting blown by the bullpen during 08. Though you would have a SSS issue.

By: lookatthosetwins

lookatthosetwins — Fri, 16 Oct 2009 15:10:57 +0000

This is a different story, because he was striking out hitters at the major league level, but Juan Cruz showed an equally striking drop in k rate this year. It will be interesting to see what happens next year.

By: lookatthosetwins

lookatthosetwins — Fri, 16 Oct 2009 15:08:38 +0000

I’d really like to see a profile of these types of pitchers, especially the ones who give up a lot of IFF. I would hypothesize that, like santana, many of them are lefthanded, and throw a lot of inside fastballs.