Comments on: How Optimistic Are Fans?

By: jacob

jacob — Wed, 20 Jan 2010 17:58:52 +0000

i’d like to see projection overstatement by team. i know brewer fans would like to reconcile some opinions held regarding the fans of certain other nl central teams.

By: Joe R

Joe R — Wed, 20 Jan 2010 15:07:28 +0000

To be fair, when you’re bored at work, sometimes the ones with a -5 or more are the most fun to read.

Get you riled up because someone probably said something stupid about the FIP methodology or how they see someone play and don’t need UZR or something.

By: Mike Green

Mike Green — Wed, 20 Jan 2010 14:24:34 +0000

I expect that the over-projection is 2/3-3/4 playing time and the remainder performance issues (and if you took out the home fans, the projected performance would probably be in a reasonable zone).

When I projected players, I sometimes would forecast a serious injury based on history and what I knew of the player. And you do have to be realistic, a 29 year old second baseman who has played 145, 153, 155, and 157 games the last 4 years ought to be projected in the 120-149 game range, but most fans will have him in the 150+.

By: Bronnt

Bronnt — Wed, 20 Jan 2010 05:11:31 +0000

I had the same thought as your first point. For example, there was a player I was rating who I thought would hit exactly 10 home runs. I chose the 10-14 category, since it fell in there, but the way that splits it looks I projected 12 home runs instead.

Of course, as you said, it’s only part of the problem. I’m almost certainly guilty of extreme optimism as well, as my projections for home-town Chipper Jones at nearly 6 WAR coming off a season where he posted 2.8. But of course, that followed two seasons where he was over 7, so I can’t bring myself to change it.

By: West

West — Wed, 20 Jan 2010 02:57:20 +0000

I’ve yet to make any projections, but I promise to be very pessimistic.

By: Xeifrank

Xeifrank — Wed, 20 Jan 2010 00:26:14 +0000

There a lot of players who end up with negative hitting WAR. If you look at the past team totals, you will see that every single team had negative WAR from their hitters (more so than pitchers, but true there also). You must take into account all the negative hitting WAR from pitchers, all the negative hitting WAR from major leaguers, and all the negative hitting WAR from AAA players. It is difficult to impossible to project where the negative WAR will come from, but you must allow for it, as it is real and tangible. I think the “Fans” are allowed to go over the so-called “limit” due to this fact.
vr, Xei

By: Xeifrank

Xeifrank — Wed, 20 Jan 2010 00:19:26 +0000

Yes, it is “pick your poison”. I would think of it in terms of a Vegas over/under on PA with even odds. With B, you’d just take the over every time and be right 8 or 9 out of 10 bets. With “A”, you are more likely to get a 50/50 split on the over/under outcomes.
vr, Xei

By: vivaelpujols

vivaelpujols — Wed, 20 Jan 2010 00:12:46 +0000

Yeah a rating system! At least it isn’t like BPro’s where snarky comments are rated below the threshold for viewing (and actually get minimized!) for their snark rather than their content (also weird that BPro doesn’t like snark – I would assume everyone on the internet does).

By: joeIQ

joeIQ — Tue, 19 Jan 2010 23:49:05 +0000

I agree. We shouldn’t underproject all players by a win to make up for the wasted seasons of the Glaus types.

Glaus rightly should have been projected several WAR, but was worth none (or very little.)

So taking a half win away from Cliff Lee to get the total WAR accurate isn’t worth a damn.

By: mwball

mwball — Tue, 19 Jan 2010 23:06:13 +0000

Would it be possible to produce some stats on the sit that were redistributed/adjusted to reflect reality? So we can see how close the fans are at the end of the season?