Comments on: Howard Avoids Arbitration For Good

By: Conballs

Conballs — Tue, 10 Feb 2009 15:34:32 +0000

JH – you are right. This signing is not about WAR and comparing Howard to the open market. It’s about the avoidance of headaches, appeasement of fans, and the selling of merch. Howard was probably a little afraid he would lose his arbitration case, and that’s why I think he came off his high horse and signed this deal. The value of the signing means the Phils can now budget properly going forward. It also puts a price-tag on Howard in case of a trade.

Howard is a unique player because he affects the game beyond his win value. Like others have said, the arbitrators take a different approach. You can complain about it, but it’s reality, and in case we have forgotten, it’s about money. Howard will make the Phils more money than all other 3.7 WAR players. So as much as I hate to give Amaro credit, this signing has advantage-Phils all over it. We’ll revisit in 3 years…

By: Nick

Nick — Tue, 10 Feb 2009 00:15:08 +0000

How was I attacking him?

By: Joe

Joe — Mon, 09 Feb 2009 20:36:19 +0000

Who cares about defense? :)

By: CMC_Stags

CMC_Stags — Mon, 09 Feb 2009 18:21:29 +0000

Nick-

You did your math wrong….

“In each of those 3 years his defense has been right about average and his playing time has been constant. If you take his 3 year averages he been exactly +0 runs on defense, -12 runs positional adjustment and +23 runs for replacement level. I think that is a pretty good projection for what he will do next year, in which case he would be around 11 runs above average before you even consider batting.”

He is 11 runs above REPLACEMENT by your math before batting. That’s 9 runs below average. The 4 projection systems that Fangraphs has listed project Howard at 25.7, 26.5, 37.0, and 43.2 Runs Above Average.

Assuming your math was correct, that puts him at 16.7, 17.5, 28, and 34.2 Runs Above Average for WARs of 3.67, 3.75, 4.8, or 5.42.

That is – based on your playing time and defensive estimates – his range of Wins Above Replacement… Matthew’s “conservative” estimate of 3.7 WAR falls right in line with your estimates combined with the Marcel and/or Oliver projections. Why you are attacking him for going with that number is beyond me…

By: JH

JH — Mon, 09 Feb 2009 18:17:10 +0000

Howard is a weird case where because of home run totals the arbitration board seems disposed to overrate him relative to market value. The Phillies almost certainly got a discount from what they would have had to pay from Howard’s escalating arbitration awards.

One-dimensional sluggers at first base continue to be a ridiculous market inefficiency.

By: Nick

Nick — Mon, 09 Feb 2009 08:33:12 +0000

I used a bad choice of words. My quote for Ryan Howard was: “That would drastically alter his slash line to be .262/.349/.557. ” Obviously that line isn’t drastically better than his real slash line of .251/.339/.543. You should read more into my actual analysis rather than my poor choice of adjectives.

By: buttsecks?

buttsecks? — Mon, 09 Feb 2009 08:03:02 +0000

The point is also that his prior good luck more than cancels out his recent bad luck and yet you only chose to incorporate one of them.

I also just saw your post in the Magglio Ordoñez thread. Are you honestly telling me that a 20 point swing in BABIP for Ordoñez, who strikes out two and a half times less frequently than Ryan Howard and is subsequently impacted far more greatly by large swings in BABIP, would “not ridiculously” affect his performance while the same 20 points for Howard would “drastically alter” his batting line? Given the difference in their balls-in-play rate, 20 points of BABIP for Magglio is effectively ~14 points for Ryan, yet the impact on Ryan is far greater?

By: Nick

Nick — Mon, 09 Feb 2009 07:11:47 +0000

When did I say that I was such a huge fan of xBABIP? I only mentioned it once. The point is that in 08 he was unlucky, no?

By: buttsecks?

buttsecks? — Mon, 09 Feb 2009 06:58:15 +0000

So why not adjust those lines too? Why only adjust the ones beneficial to your agenda? You say his BABIP was 45 points below his career average, but it was only 25 points below his expected career average. You’re obviously such a huge fan of xBABIP; why only use it when you see fit? How come those same 20 points of difference that were so drastic when they served to prove your point don’t seem to matter when they undermine your entire argument?

By: Nick

Nick — Mon, 09 Feb 2009 06:18:46 +0000

I love how you cherry-pick quotes. You should be in the media… ba-dump-a-cha. I did say that his 06 and 07 BABIP’s were way to high. And you are right, that would change those numbers from those years. But the argument I was trying to make was that his 08 season was a fluke in terms of a really low BABIP and the 17 less intentional walks, which combined DO make a big difference in wOBA.