I’m Sorry
On behalf of Joe Girardi and Charlie Manuel, who were overcome with temporary insanity, I’d like to publicly apologize to the following players.
Francisco Liriano, +4.2 WAR
Joey Votto, +3.6 WAR
Kevin Youkilis, +3.2 WAR
Jered Weaver, +3.2 WAR
Alex Rios, +3.1 WAR
Josh Willingham, +3.1 WAR
Ryan Zimmerman, +3.0 WAR
Felix Hernandez, +2.9 WAR
By any standard you want to use, these eight have to be on the team. You can’t have a 2010 All-Star game without those guys. What a disaster.
Dave is a co-founder of USSMariner.com and contributes to the Wall Street Journal.
5
Wait, Rios didn’t make it? what. I thought I saw him. I like Joe Girardi, but this is just silly.
What a disgrace – is it just me or is Charlie Manuel the mother fu*king anti-christ??? He is the epitome of old school baseball thinking where if you saw a guy perform well ONCE, then that must be how he is all the time. Infante got a game winning hit against the Phillies in a game in the 9th inning back in May, so his pea-sized brain figures he’s the greatest player ever…
And then he takes his own freaking guy Howard instead of a guy leading A 1ST PLACE TEAM with his ridiculous numbers and all around great play? (Votto)… And in case Charlie Manuel or other retarded Phillies fans are reading this – THE PHILLIES ARE IN 3RD PLACE! IN THEIR OWN DIVISION!!! Aren’t retarded “old school” thinkers supposed to weigh wins and losses of a specific player’s team more than anything else?
Dave I tend to want to disagree with you as often as I can, but PLEASE make as big a deal about this as you can, cuz I know this BULLSHlT frustrates you as much as it does me!
I hate Charlie Manuel, too. I predict he will either be canned in 2012, or he’ll cut and run when he sees the writing on the wall for the Phillies. Either way, he’s just another bad manager on a good team, while people like Manny Acta get stuck with terrible teams.
Oh, I hear your frustration Don. Let’s just try to get through this week without going on a killing spree, OK? Those are bad.
LOL yeah I had just watched Charlie Manuel in an interview drawl on about how Omar Infante fits the “Utility” position to a tee and thats why he picked him. I swear Manuel is the main reason why I give absolutely ZERO credit to Managers in baseball. Sorry Mike Scioscia, sorry Bobby Cox, but a monkey could do your job!
Pablo Sandoval thinks that you should all have recognized what a dolt Charlie Manuel is by now.
Can we get a posting of the entire rosters before we bitch about who didn’t make it? I was not able to see it…
http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/top-posts/yay-its-the-all-star-selection-show.php
Thanks
What the hell?
I can somewhat understand some of the omissions, if they factor past performance in more than I would (Rios, Willingham) – but no Liriano or Votto is just a travesty.
Wow… To me this is just another example of how absurd Selig’s standing as commissioner has been. You can’t apply meaning to the All-Star game by giving away home field advantage to the winner and not adapt new methods within the selection processes. Either the All-Star game is the fan’s game… or it’s the league’s game… It’s not fair to expect a combination of the general population and anointed manager to result in a league’s strongest possibility in winning the game.
Are these inconsistencies brought about by a manager’s utter regard to All-Star tradition? Or is there no avoiding the pressure to continue being devoted to every baseball town and as many TV markets as possible… Why can’t we just go back to the way it used to be before the rule change… It’s clear that the All-Star Game will forever continue as All-Star Pandering.
The all star game deciding home field advantage for the world series is a complete joke. Especially with the current format but really with any format. This is an exhibition game. It’s like having the best record in spring training determine home field. At least if they used cumulative interleague record they’d be using games that count for something. It’s an over reaction to the tie game in Milwaukee a few years back, pushed by the TV networks who didn’t know how to sell a tie in a game that didn’t count anyway and mlb panicking over people losing interest for one day when there aren’t even any other sporting events going on. Most of the 12 year olds that think this game is important have gone to bed by the time it’s over anyway. The last time I watched the whole game was 1983 when I was at the game. The whole idea is total horseshit. It’s typical Selig pandering and if mlb had any balls other than the horsehide covered ones they’d tell FOX: “suck it, it’s an exhibition.”
I’m pretty sure they got rid of that rule starting this year. I think it’s back to NL one year AL next.
I guess i misremembered reading something that said they were just talking about making that rule change, nevermind
Well at least Ryan Howard made it over the NL leader in OPS…..
I thought Ryan Howard making it was laughable. I thought, who the hell just made this pick, and then I realized it was the manager of Howard’s team. Ridiculous.
In a game with plenty of pitching, I imagine a LHP will be dominating Howard during a crucial at bat.
Paging Matt Thornton. Matt Thornton will you please report to the mound.
I can see the conversation now…
Manuel: Hey, Howard? You ever hear of Joey Votto?
Howard: Yeah sure, skip. Why –
Manuel (interrupting): That guy’s ****ing awesome, dude! OPS like 60 points higher than yours! 19 homers man! NINETEEN. How many you got?
Howard: 15.
Manuel: Exactly. What is 15? Omar Infante almost has 15. Anyway, long story short, I picked Votto over you for the All-Star Game.
Howard: Hunh? You’re my manager!
Manuel: And I so wish I had Votto at 1B instead of you. What a ballplayer! And I love his name, too. Votto! Votto… VOT-to. Great name! Maybe you would play better if you were Ryan Votto.
Howard: Not feeling the love, skip.
Manuel: Yeah well, that player’s manager hype is all BS. It’s all numbers these days. So get over yourself and go win us some ballgames. I have full confidence in you in real games, just not in fake ones. Understand?
Howard: No, not really…. Me and the fellas in the locker room are going to go grumble behind your back now. Bye.
Anyway, if Joey Votto is the greatest American hero, he’ll have no problems getting voted in by the fans as the last man. Take your case to the streets.
1) it’s close to .130, not .060.
2) fake games? You check the standings lately?
Joey Votto is Canadien, which makes him an unlikely American Hero.
At least Omar Infante made it….
I’m a Braves fan, and I can’t justify this pick even in my own mind. I guess Charlie was fairly unimpressed with this year’s shortstop candidates with Tulowitzki on the DL, so he scooped up a utility player, but still. Rafael Furcal would have been a better selection for another shortstop to put on the roster.
I’m a Braves fan too. Can only justify it based on his defensive flexibility late in the game when Manuel needs someone to possibly play multiple positions and his ridiculous RISP average. I’m happy for him, but just a shocking pick overall.
@Kev Late inning defensive flexibility is a wonderful thing. But you know, that means he’s not a full-time starter. How a bench/platoon guy ends up in the ASG is beyond me.
@Andrew. Oh yeah, I agree completely. I don’t think he deserves to make it, I was just listing the only reasons why he could even be considered. I am happy for him that he made it, but in no way would I have ever chosen him or even thought to choose him. Of course, now he will get the game winning hit for the NL and make us all look foolish.
If he wanted someone with defensive flexibility, I think Juan Uribe would be the much better choice.
The “defensive flexibility” argument is a bad one since managers can designate one player for re-entry.
Well, Bruntlett wasn’t available and neither was Abe Nunez and he’d have had trouble picking Juan Castro or Wilson Valdez so he went with Infante.
Charlie is under the apparent belief that ALL rosters MUST have a no hit utility infielder…this has been pounded into him by the Phillies FO for the past 4 years now.
As a Phillies fan, yeah its nice that Howard was picked but its a travesty that he made it over Votto.
Worst all-star pick ever. Seriously. Worse than even some of the dudes who make it only because their bottomfeeder team needs a rep. An embarrassment to the game.
Charlie Manuel said he wanted someone who could get on base and lay down a bunt.
Not really sure how that works considering he can’t really do both at the same time, and if he wanted to get on base he’d have Votto in instead of Howard.
Lay down a bunt? Really? He couldn’t find a national leaguer he trusted to swing away with a guy on base? I guess the ALCS really is the championship series.
Furcal is one of the top 5 bunters in baseball, along with being better at everything else in life than Infante. How ridiculous.
Don’t forget Miguel Olivo.
It’s a popularity contest… always will be. How Omar Infante made the All-Star team is beyond me though
Don’t the players select most of the reserves?
I love Yadi Molina, but he really didn’t deserve a spot in this game, even if you take his normally amazing defense into account. Plus, as a Cardinals fan, I’d rather give him the break off rather than tossing his overused knees into what is obviously a meaningless exhibition, judging by these rosters.
Hm. Reply fail.
@cantregister – Pretty sure the Manager picks all reserves.
Voxx the players vote for many of the reserves. They voted Capps in, which means the Nats already got a rep, which means it’s easier for Charlie Manuel to go nuts and pick Infante and he has to fill in some other team’s lone reps with outfielders who are far less deserving than Willingham.
I am extremely torn about whether to vote Votto or Zimmerman. Votto’s clearly the better player so far this year, but Zimmerman’s the face of the Nats when Strasburg’s not pitching and deserves a bigger share of the vote.
At least Polanco wasn’t voted on.
I should make it over Joey Votto. He can’t play 2b;SS;3B. I’ll be all over the diamond come ASG.
brilliant
Seems like kind of a stretch… All over the diamond for a couple of innings? If that’s the case, then at least give the team a strong defender… Aren’t they using the DH… so the super utility kind of guy is a little excessive. If you want defense, just plant Zimmerman at 3B to close, and Philips at 2B. Why would you want more than Hanley Ramirez and Jose Reyes at SS anyway?
I’m pretty sure most of the reseves are picked by the players.
That’s correct if we want to properly assess blame here, we should look at who made what choices. Also remember that the manager choices are responsible to make sure every team is represented.
AL Players: Price, Buchholz, Lester, Hughes, Lee, Feliz, Rivera, Valverde, Cabrera, Pedroia, Martinez, Ortiz, Andrus, Wells, Bautista, Hunter, Kinsler, Buck
Girardi + MLB: Wigginton, Rodriguez, Thornton, Carmona, Soria, Cahill, Sabathia
NL Players: Jimenez, Halladay, Johnson, Lincecum, Wainwright, Capps, Wilson, Broxton, McCann, Gonzalez, Tulowitzki, Rolen, Prado, Hart, Holliday, Byrd, Reyes
Manual + MLB: Howard, Phillips, Infante, Bourn, Young, Carpenter, Gallardo, Hudson, Meek, Rhodes
Managers also pick the final vote nominees (Konerko, Swisher, Youkilis, Young and Young vs. Bell, Gonzalez, Votto, Wagner, Zimmerman)
Charlie Manual’s picks are horrifying. Infante? Young? Rhodes? Ugh…
Yeah, Arthur Rhodes sucks….he didn’t do anything to deserve a spot this year. Particularly a lefty reliever who is experienced with coming into a game with people on base and can offset a lot of the ALs left-handed power hitters.
Let’s take a breath and think it through.
Manuel also picked Howard.
Yeah, Toz, the 15th best relief pitcher in the National League is totally deserving of playing in the all-star game.
@ Toz
Rhodes’ XFIP is 3.53 and he’s been worth 0.8 WAR. Wagner’s XFIP is 2.50 and he’s been worth 0.9 WAR and pitches in higher leverage situations. They both walk about 3 per 9 innings (Rhodes: 3.27, Wagner: 3.24), but Rhodes only strikes out 8.73 per 9 whereas Wagner strikes out 14.04. Rhodes has only been lucky on balls in play with a .218 BABIP (vs .293 for his career) whereas Wagner’s is .276 (vs. .278 for his career).
I did think. Rhodes over Wagner is a terrible choice.
@Bernard Those numbers really aren’t that far off, and given Rhodes has the added benefit of having the longest scoreless streak in the bigs this year, I can see choosing him. Of all the snubs, that one is not horrifying, or one I would dwell on. It’s not like th Braves needed more All-Stars anyway.
I’ve got no stake in the Braves or anything like that, but this is also Wagner’s last season – I feel like he’d clearly be a better choice than Rhodes for baseball and emotional reasons.
Remember, every team needs a representative. Young making it over, say, Kelly Johnson, isn’t that asinine.
There were 7 players in the AL and 10 in the NL (don’t ask me how it works) that were picks directly at the discretion of the manager. The rest of the reserves were player ballot selections. The players are responsible for the pitching mess on the AL side, as they selected David Price, Clay Buchholz, Phil Hughes, and Jose Valverde (along with Cliff Lee, Jon Lester, Rivera and Feliz).
Bronnt – you’ll have to educate me on the “mess”…Last I looked, those four pitchers you mentioned are, well, pretty good.
Toz, they’re not Liriano, Weaver, or Felix. The goal is more than to just select some “pretty good” players.
Wait Omar Infante really made the team???!!!!!!?!
Can we PLEASE stop complaining about all star snubs? Does anyone take this game seriously anymore? Every single year there’s idiotic omissions, it’s like complaining every day that the sun rose.
I can’t really remember a year where there were omissions quite like Liriano and Votto, to be fair.
Are you really that shocked about Liriano? Let’s face it, the vast majority of the baseball world has never even heard of tERA or xFIP.
Considering the game decides home field advantage in the World Series as well as bonuses for all players involved, I’d say plenty of people care.
Voxx: Without checking in depth, I’m sure there’s been worse omissions. The one player from every team rule forces tons of better players out so that 10 people from Pittsburgh will want to watch who dat.
Andrew: Yes, you’d think the fact that they play for something serious would change the nature of the selection. But it comes down to fans, old school baseball people, and restrictions for selection. My point is, there will always be poor selections. Complaining every year about it gets old by about year 10 of reading the same articles. To Dave’s credit, he kept it short. Still, it’s perfectly clear to most people how ridiculous some of the selections are.
It’s as much the selections as it is the omissions…
Carmona
Wigginton
Buck
almost embarrassing AL choices (not to insult those players, it’s by no means their fault considering they have put together respectable first halves)…
GZ, that’s a much better point. Since you have to take an Indian, you might as well take the right one. It still creates the problem of leaving out a more deserving player, but Ty Wiggington for example makes no sense. But if you take Markakis so you can take Youk instead somewhere else, you’d leave out a Rios type. You should make the selection count, but you’d still have the same problem that Cameron is crying about.
Considering 25 years from now, if, say, Votto is a career .300/.400/.500 guy w/ 65.0 career WAR and the Hall debate is going on, all the hacks will have be able to build the ASG strawman up and say “Well obviously he was never CONSIDERED to be great, so he’s not great”.
So yeah, we care.
It’s a potentially great game that’s ruined by a number of misplaced traditions and bad decisions. Complaining about these things might help change them.
WAR probably isnt’ the right stat for the all star game. It is a game for the fans and the typical fan wants pitching and hitting and don’t care as much about defense.
Sadly most fans prefer the HR as well and not those boring BB so the perfect all star team would not even be the best hitting team, it would be a SLG heavy team.
I kind of agree with this. Fans want to see offense and pitching, though WebGems are enough to sate our defensive appetites. How about wRAA
do fans prefer omar infante to joey votto?
LOL Joey Votto and Ryan Zimmerman are both in the Final Vote. Brutal.
It’s about time I get recognized. Who needs Fransisco Liriano or Shin-Soo Choo when you me?
Choo is out for 6-8 weeks, Fausto. You should know that – he’s on your team.
At least we can rectify two of the more glaring omissions with the ‘last spot fan voting’ debacle.
Youk and Votto are both options. Zimmerman is deserving as well, but Votto even moreso.
If it’s any consolation, Votto, Youkilis, and Zimmerman are up for the final vote in spots…
Votto has better stats than Zimmerman, but there are a ton of good first basemen. I love Joewy Votto, but Zim, is the best third baseman in the National league.
Yeah, that’s incorrect. Check again.
Okay – let’s clear a couple of things up – it seems like we do this every year.
One, while fans are voting for starting slots, you are going to get some odd choices. Get over it – it has ALWAYS been this way and is not going to change.
Two, the players get to select 8 reserves by ballot.
Three, managers are trying to win this game now. It is MLBs fault that Omar Infante is on the roster.
Four, there are always guys who belong on the roster who aren’t there. You will watch anyway, so stop griping.
How is it the MLB’s fault that Omar Infante is on the roster? There were 4 other Braves selected.
Your mentality sucks so fing bad. Not to say complaining all the time is good, but complacency is much worse. People need to be proactive in order to make thing work correctly, this is true in baseball, democracy, and life.
I expected Miguel Olivo to get snubbed, but he leads all MLB catchers in WAR – at both Fangraphs and Baseball-Reference. Dave, add him to this list. Don’t snub him twice over! You can’t have the best player at his position in all of baseball left off the roster….
You’re sorry? Thanks for the apology you self-righteous prick.
The way they do voting in the NBA is really at fault, there. You can vote once per day online, so if you want to cast a lot of votes, you have to start early, rather than wait to see who are having the best seasons. There’s no last minute surges like David Wright chasing down Placido Polanco (hoorah!) this year.
Also, name recognition seems to play a much bigger factor in NBA all-star selections than actual stats/performance. It truly is an exhibition, unlike this “it means something” deal.
Reply fail to MV.
*high five* you won the prize for jerk of the thread!
I wonder which of those eight omitted players he is.
Me llamo, Carlos…
At least his prick is self righteous instead of very, very small.
I thought Iverson being elected to this years all star game was the most ridiculous thing ever, but this surely comes close … I mean, Howard over Votto? No love for Franscisco? Come on!
You can vote in Votto and Youkilis as the Final Man for each of the rosters. Vote up to 25 times and make this right:
http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/events/all_star/y2010/fv/ballot.html
LOL! WHY WOULD I VOTE IN YOU-KILL-US? IF ANYBODY, IM VOTING FOR TEX. HES BEEN ALL STAR ALMOST EVERY YERAR AND YOU KNOW HE WILL HAVE A MONSTER SECOND HALVE. YOUK SUX ANYWAYS. LOL GOOD RIDDANCE.
And monster second halves are integral to winning the ASG..
Oh yeah, look at that .236/.350/.417 triple slash, with a very league-average .341 wOBA (right between James Loney and Denard Span!), along with below-average defense.
Definitely better than Youk’s .299/.415/.576 with a .426 wOBA (right between Josh Hamilton and Joey Votto!), and slightly above-average defense.
Oh, and also… Teixeira’s 0.8 WAR puts him right between Matt Wieters and Ian Stewart! What a star!
How did bleacher creatures find fangraphs?
I was expecting this to be some kind of sarcastic post, but when I saw the Strongisland handle I fear not.
As good as Phil Hughes is, and as much as I love the kid, I think it would have been quite right to have Liriano in over him. Or, take Buchholz off the roster since he had a recent injury so as not to risk him getting hurt further.
The PLAYERES voted Hughes in. So blame the players who seem to think Hughes is a better pitcher. People just never seem to understand this.
THE PLAYERS PLAY TEH GAME REMEMBER. THEY KNOW WHO IS BETTER THAN THE FNAS WHO VOTE FOR THE ALL STAR GMAE. HUGHES IS AN ALL STAR AND HE DESSERVES IT. THE PLAYERS KNOW THIS ONLY RED SOX FANS DISAGREE
I would love nothing more than to punch you in the throat.
Most Internet browsers have spellcheck built in. Amazing.
I realized this afterwards. It really is a shame. I know he’s been giving up some home runs in his last few starts, and he’ll figure it out, but I mean come now…How can you say Liriano isn’t an All-Star? Sure, Cliff Lee can start it, that’s fine…but still.
strongisland, I am not a Red Sox fan. Youk is better than Tex. Other AL firstbasemen who are better than Tex this year include (but are not limited to) Konerko, Butler, Morales, Barton, Napoli, Branyan, Pena, Cabrera, and Morneau. Tex did beat out Kotchman and Kotsay, though. That’s something. I guess.
Sorry, I seem to have responded to the wrong stupid post by STRONGISLAND. My bad.
I find morons usually forget how to turn off caps lock.
well managers don’t look at war or FIP and xFIP. but still i’m surprised weaver wasn’t pick since even in terms of conventional stats he is dealing.
Weaver only has 8 wins. Hughes has 10, Price has 11.
Hughes and Price have sparkling ERAs. ERA is a pretty good measure of what’s happened thus far (not as good as RA but still good)
When did wins become a credible stat for pitchers?
Weaver’s AL rankings you ask?
xFIP – 2nd behind Liriano (another ridiculous snub)
WHIP – 3rd
K/9 – 1st
K/BB – 3rd
BAA – 8th
and even ERA(yuck) is 6th in the AL
Matt, I’m not making any arguments at all in favor of wins. DT commented that Weaver’s “conventional stats” looked impressive, but he forgot just how narrow-viewed players can be. They vote on things like wins, regardless of how foolish it is.
Heck, I hate wins. I’m a Braves fan, and I have to deal with people insisting that Derek Lowe is better than Kenshin Kawakami on the basis of “being a winner” and not “choking with the game on the line.” That’s such a pain to argue with-Jeff Schulz of the AJC called Kawakami “the worst free agent they’ve ever signed.” A man making $23 over 3 years who has a 4.23 FIP, but an unfortunate 1-9 record.
yeah i’m not a big fan of wins…i mean to be honest even tho i’m a yankees fan i would take weaver over hughes despite the wins.
fair enough Bronnt
Having the league leader in strikeouts not at the all-star roster is still an absolute travesty. Hopefully the Yankee pitchers get lit up and Girardi gets booed every time time he walks out to the mound.
Adrian Beltre deserves to go too
Beltre is going…
Aha, I kept waiting for someone to mention this guy. Speaking as a Yankee fan, I’m somewhat embarrassed A-Rod’s on there ahead of Beltre. Maybe an even bigger snub than Youkilis, who at least is on the final vote.
Oh, shoot … never mind.
Of course I’m sure Dave realizes most of the selections are made by players and that the rest are partially filled up by having to select someone from every team. The only starter Joe selected was CC, who won’t actually be eligible to pitch in the AS game. But whatever.
I don’t thiuk he realizes. If he did, why would he wrote what he wrote?
Yeah, not saying he didn’t make some head scratchers. But Morneau was voted by the fans and Cabrera and Ortiz by the players. Joe could include 4 first basemen, but at that point if you just filled up the roster with WAR leaders you’d have strangely stacked teams.
Uh yeah, what about Beltre?
The fact Votto didn’t make the team is the biggest crock of shit I’ve ever seen in all my years of terrible All-Star snubs
So the second biggest snub you’ve ever seen is Youkilis, I assume? Since he’s having the same season as Votto and all…
Except Youkilis is legitimately behind two other 1B in his league (at least in terms of offense). Votto is clearly better than the other 1B who was picked instead.
Oh, so its still the “biggest crock of shit” he’s ever seen even though if they guy played in the AL (where his numbers would presumably be worse) he wouldn’t be deserving…?
On that same token I’d like to apologize to Geovany Soto. His WAR may only be 1.8, but that’s in large part to Lou Pinellia being batshit insane. Even with the trouble of Koyie Hill playing more frequently than him lately he’s amassed the 2nd highest WAR of any NL catcher.
Second? You might want to check that again.
He’s was tied with Napoli when I posted it. Both of them were at 1.8WAR. Napoli, Soto and McCann are the three highest NL Catchers. He’s behind McCann and tied with Napoli, wouldn’t that consist of 2nd?
Ah, crap, for some reason Olivo wasn’t showing up. Nonetheless, he’s been fantastic this year and deserves to be playing every day and on the AS roster.
Matt Capps making it for the Nats. As a Nationals fan, I am more than disgusted.
He’s a result of the “token player per team” rule. Which is crazy-Willingham deserves to be a starter, and isn’t even selected to be the Nationals’ token representative.
You really can’t blame this on one player per team.
Zimmerman, Strassburg, and Willingham all play for the Nats. That’s two legitimate allstars and one interesting to watch guy.
There may be teams with noone worthy of being on a 34 player all-star roster, but the Nats aren’t that team.
Here here.
You can make a better case for Adam Dunn than you can for Capps- that’s not even considering that Zimmerman, Willingham and Strasburg are all better options than either of those two.
Daniel Bard should have made the roster – 42k’s in 39.2IP, 18 holds, whip 0.86… the list goes on.
I know setup men don’t usually get much attention but his numbers are way better than Thornton, 10 holds, whip 1.01, Thornton does have more k’s, but the argument could be made that Bard is much more exciting (throws 100mph)
NYY/Girardi influence?
Well, Thornton is the only White Sox representative I believe…
Thornton is also the only true LHRP… I would be pretty comfortable with him going up against a string of left handed hitters.
More like the non-closers-don’t-usually-make-all-star-teams influence.
Thornton also throws up near 100 MPH, and as a lefty, so maybe rethink the more exciting argument.
As a Sox fan I’m thankful Bard DIDN’T make it. The kid needs the time off. Been pitching practically every other game all season.
I think the “Why Do We Care?” article would apply here.
Given the 118 (and counting) comments, seems like at least a couple people care.
Votto has been taken out of the game today. Anybody know what that’s about? If he is injured, he probably won’t get voted in.
He got ejected
Nevermind, Votto was ejected. There’s the end of his 40 game on-base streak.
One reason to care is if you care about HOF. A guy like Votto or Zimmerman could get hurt down the line when they are up for HOF since lots of idiot voters clumsily use number of ASG’s as a criteria of dominance. And with Howard around, there is a decent chance that Votto could get screwed out of multiple ASG’s. Heck, he was probably screwed out of one last year too, as he batted .351/433/.594 in the 1st half last year in 231 plate appearances.
Similarly, Howard’s HOF case will be boosted by multiple undeserved AS selections. In the eys of many voters, that means he was “feared” and “dominant” etc.
So AS selections can impact HOF selections, and that’s one reason to care. Hopefully the voting pool of the HOF will be significantly more educated roughly 15 years from now when these guys are on the ballot.
I’m with you.
Holy hell how did I miss this comment, it’s spot-on.
Howard is having a great season… he is a legit All-Star…maybe not as good as Votto, etc. but, it’s not an outrage that he was picked…there has certainly been worse in the past;
as far as HOF snubs, can we have this argument after Votto wins a WS at least ?
He’s had a great start to his career but, Howard is obviously way ahead of him at the moment.
Matt Cain should have been picked instead of Tim Lincecum. As a Giants fan its frustrating because even I can admit that Tim hasn’t pitched as well as Matt has.
Incorrect.
Not even close.
Matt Cain’s xFIP is currently 4.70. I’m sure none of the idiot writers in the SF press even realize it, but he’s pitched pretty bad to get that 2.93 ERA.
xFIP misfires on guys like Cain who consistently exert strong influence over their BABIP and/or HR/FB (and occasionally LOB%). A personalized metric would put him in or around the high 3.00 range.
Ryu – Yeah, that damned xFIP never accounts for magical abilities!
“a personalized metric???” Seriously?? That term is a huge non sequitur and any such “metric” would be completely worthless – as is any metric that ascribes Cain an ability to “strong[ly] influence” his BABIP… or basically any metric that portrays him as having performed better than Lincecum this season.
The ‘and/or’ in Cain’s case was meant to be taken as ‘or’. A lower than average BABIP is a natural byproduct of extreme flyballism and is offset by higher XBH rates on balls in play for the typical pitcher, so I didn’t want to touch that. His ability to suppress home runs on fly balls, however, is virtually undeniable and one of the limitations of xFIP.
All I meant by personalized metric is one that regresses a pitcher’s luck indicators toward his own mean rather than assigning him a league average rate. I don’t know how worthless it can be if Tom Tango is laying out the groundwork for it.
Girardi’s hands were tied with the Carmona pick and the rule that each team needs an All-Star. With Choo injured and the players choosing Buck as the backup catcher, there wasn’t any reasonable Indian player to choose. Whether it was Carmona or Masterson or Kearns, none of them deserved to be there. Unless of course the manager is allowed to pick an injured player as a team’s lone all-star. Then Choo would be the obvious choice and he could just be replaced by Rios. But it seems that the manager has to choose a healthy player from each team. Can anybody verify this?
Things got screwed up by the players selecting 3 Blue Jay players in Wells, Buck, and Bautista. While there is a case for Buck, it isn’t an overwhelming case and so ideally the backup C spot could have been spent as the Indians lone AS (Santana). This would have opened up a pitching spot for King Felix or Jered Weaver or Liriano (instead of Carmona). But Santana hasn’t played too many games, so I can see why he wasn’t picked. If Santana is not picked, someone really deserving has to get screwed over by a Carmona-type of a pick.
And Rios got screwed over by the player choices of both Bautitsa and Wells. The players simply screwed that one up. Neither Bautista nor Wells deserve to be there. Ideally the backup SS spot could have gone to Alex Gonzalez, and Buck/Wells/Bautista could have all been replaced by CarlosSantana/AlexRios/Youkilis. That way the Blue Jays still have an All-Star, and one who is deserving without screwing over anybody else.
And Hughes was another poor choice by the players. There were plenty of more deserving candidates (Felix, Weaver, Liriano).
And ARod is an all-time great player, but based on this year’s performance alone he doesn’t deserve a spot on the team. Girardi chose his own guy on that one. I think this one is defensible though simply because ARod can be a DH replacement for Vlad, and even though ARod has struggled by his standards this year, he is still one of the best hitters in the game.
Girardi also chose his own undeserving guy in Sabathia. This is actually a sneaky way to get Pettitte in there. Sabathia is going to pitch on Sunday and so he will have to be replaced on the all-star team. Girardi could potentially choose any starting pitcher to replace him. And while Liriano is the clear choice, Girardi will probably go with Pettitte.
The ARod pick is completely indefensible considering all the other things going on IMO. Its a terrible pick. I really don’t see how you can justify it.
Pettitte over Liriano would be an even worse pick.
A-Rod is Girardi’s freaking guy. Apart from the ‘to the victor goes the spoils’ rationale, which says Girardi has the right to pick whoever he wants because his team won the World Series, you have the ‘he’s my player’ rationale, where you don’t dis your own guy and annoy him just to make fangraphs happy.
Eckstein should have made it over Infante.
Oakland also had no deserving player. Cahill’s presence screwed over Liriano/Felix/Weaver as well. I could understand the players not choosing Santana as the backup C, but Suzuki is essentially just as deserving as Buck and has player all year (unlike Santana) so a Suzuki selection would have cleared out Cahill’s pitching spot for a more deserving player.
As for Wigginton, Giriardi chose him as the lone Oriole. Markakis is much more deserving. But maybe there were too many OF’s selected by the players (Hunter, Bautista, Wells) and so Girardi wanted a backup infielder? Other than that, I’m not sure how you can choose Wiggy over Markakis. Either way, neither player really belongs on the team. This is another example of how the “every team needs an all-star” rule screws deserving players like Rios out of the team.
On behalf of all fangraph readers, i’d like to apolegize for ranking the Mariners #6
This would be funnier if everything were spelled correctly and grammatically correct.
And if it wasn’t the 700th time this “joke” was used.
I’m not sure why people expect these types of post to go away. The Ms were ranked #6 and are now looking at about 70 wins this year and will likely be worse off next year when they lose Lee.
Cameron writes often about good process…bad results and vice versa. There was a large part of this community that was convinced the Ms ranking was bad process. Dave has not, and obv will not admit this. If he can call folks out (C.Manual) for bad process then he needs to be able to stomach being called out for the #6 ranking of the Ms. His rationale for ranking them #6 as a future org when they don’t have an above average farm system seemed soley built upon a projection showing they had a non trivial chance of winning the WS this year seemed weak, and many observed this in the comments (other than that Jeff Nye character…I wonder where he has been)
I’m surprised Cahill made it over Bailey. There’s two pitchers who won’t pitch in the game (Hughes and Sabathia) I’m almost positive Pettitte will be one of them.
I think Hughes could get an inning in the game. It’s his hometown, and Girardi has talked since May about how it would be nice for Hughes to be an all-star because of that hometown factor. Hughes is on an innings limit, so I guess that would be a reason for Girardi to consider not using him.
I should correct myself on (at least) one thing. I said Hughes was a “poor choice” which is not true. Omar Infante or Ryan Howard is a poor choice. What I meant to say was that Hughes was not as deserving as some other starting pitchers who were left off the AL team.
Beyond fan voting, it’s interesting how the poor choices ended up in the All Star Game.
On the AL side, it was poor player choices, voting in guys like Wells and Batista, and also guys like Hughes and Price over Liriano and Weaver.
On the NL, it was the manager. Ryan Howard over Joey Votto, Rhodes over several starters (Strasburg?), Omar Infante over a myriad of players (like Zimmerman or Willingham).
I wonder if the fans picked Howard over Votto as well.
This board is filled with jackasses, at least as far as the AL is concerned.
Girardi, in conjunction with MLB, filled out the AL roster with the following: second baseman Ty Wigginton of the Orioles and third baseman Alex Rodriguez of the Yankees, along with pitchers Matt Thornton of the White Sox, Fausto Carmona of the Indians, Joakim Soria of the Royals, Trevor Cahill of the Athletics and CC Sabathia of the Yankees.
The ONLY pitcher he took who wasn’t selected to fill a requirement was CC, who WON’T pitch!! The only serious blunder was taking A-Rod over Youk. While Youk has been a much better player, he decided to take a third 3rd basemen over a 6th(!) 1b/dh player…So yes, Youk probably should be there, but Cameron is an idiot to mention insanity over a bunch of players who Girardi had no option of taking. Blame the system, it forces you to take undeserving players over guys who should be there.
Youkilis has more in common with a third baseman than he does with a DH, calling him a 1B/DH is a bit disingenuous.
Youkilis has played 2 games at 3rd. 76 at 1st. He’s been a fantastic first basemen, but if you took him for his bat he’s a dh. If he plays his natural position, that’s 1b. My point is that if you take him as either a 1b or a bat, there’s already 6 guys who take either spot. Yes, you could take him as a 3b, but again, he’s played 2 games there.
Should he be there, yes…All I’m saying is blame the system not the manager.
“Youkilis has played 2 games at 3rd. 76 at 1st.”
Adrian Beltre.
Matlock: Yup, that’s why Youk isn’t a 3b. Therefore, to take him as one doesn’t make sense.
B.S.
If you need a 3B take one who is actually performing… like Michael Young. The ARod pick is a homer pick, plain and simple.
And to justify ARod over Youk based on defense is kind of silly. ARod isn’t a good defender at 3B and hasn’t been for a while. Negative UZR the last 6 years and some very negative DRS totals. Let’s be honest here – Girardi didn’t pick him for his defense.
Third base is actually Youk’s natural position. He came up as a third baseman and the only reason he moved to first in the majors is because the Sox were forced to take Lowell to get Beckett and Youk was just performing too well to keep blocked at the minor league level. While Youk IS better at first than he is at third, he’s still at least as good as a defensive third baseman than A-Rod.
I understand that, as a Yanks fan (I seem to recall you citing yourself as one earlier in the thread), you’re not going to be up to date on Youk’s history (Damned if I could tell you whether or not second is Cano’s natural position). That said, there is really no defensible reason to take A-Rod over Youk this season.
Now Charlie Manual, that guy is just nuts…
Where as one writer might do something like “Notable, Horrible Omissions”, another puts himself in the story. Interesting.
Dave, I’m a big fan from USSM, but posts like these need to have the accompanying players you’d remove to be at the level of your usual posts. No, Infante has no place on the team, but the discussion every year is “who got snubbed.” Few point out who they’d replace and what changes would be necessary to accommodate all of the MLB requirements. You’re better than this post.
He does have an accompanying post, it’s conveniently titled “My All-Stars.”
Yet “My All-Stars” reflects a completely independent team having numerous player discrepancies beyond the “I’m sorry” omissions. They’re unique posts, and just like any of the countless “omissions” posts on any sports website, “I’m Sorry” is lacking without the complementary “Get Lost” list.
No Gregerson either? Not a huge snub, but damn has he been good. Would have preferred him to Capps for sure.
Am I the only one not torn up about Jered fucking Weaver getting “snubbed” after his hot three months? He’s never been a star, and he never will be.
Yeah, when I think of stars the first name that pops into my head is Omar Infante. Can’t have players like Jered Weaver playing the All Star game.
He’s not a star? Name all the starting pitchers with a higher strikeout rate? Strasburg, and that’s it.
Also can you pass me that crystal ball? How do you know that he won’t be a star in the future?
“Two wrongs make a right”, good argument. Next.
Cherry picking stats. Next.
Jered Weaver is 35 years old, he’s not a budding star. Next.
“Cherry picking stats. Next.”
2.82 ERA?
1.06 WHIP?
3.26 xFIP?
3.2 WAR?
Am I still cherry picking?
“Jered Weaver is 35 years old, he’s not a budding star. Next.”
He’s 27, you fucking retard. NEXT!
You must hate the Angels and/or Jered Weaver.
Now Now, Jeff, don’t be so jealous of your brother having the career you’ve always wanted.
I’d say Jered Weaver being 59-30 with a 3.60 era for his career, while having a career year so far this year…that’s pretty dang close to being star material. Not superstar mind you, but all-star for sure.
I don’t have a huge problem with Hughes over him or Liriano, truthfully. All are good choices. This isn’t sticking Infante, Howard or ARod on the team over more deserving players. Hughes is a close call and somewhat arguable. I might not have picked him if I made the team… but I would never argue someone else picking him. Its a fine pick.
How does not one-NOT ONE! Padre pitcher make this team? Mat Latos should be on this damn team. Shame on you, Charlie Manual!
A-Gon made the team.
“pitcher”
Serious All Star game is serious.
pointless post is pointless
Naturally, Ryan Howard will hit a 3-run homer in the All-Star Game. I can see it coming … Just to spite all of us.
My thoughts exactly. I’m looking forward to Omar Infante, All-Star MVP with a game-winning bunt.
Guys… those two play for the NATIONAL LEAGUE.
They’re going to get smoked just like every year. Fortunately the way Charlie is managing his own team he won’t have to worry about playing Games 1 & 2 of the World Series on the road.
Smoked is a little off mark. They have been close games the last few years and essentially the game turns into the battle of the closers for the last 3 or 4 innings. When you have the greatest closer in game ever, plus (healthy) Joe Nathan and Papelbon for the 7th and 8th, chances your are going to win a close game.
Whoops, the last sentence should read -
”When you have the greatest closer in game ever, plus (healthy) Joe Nathan and Papelbon for the 7th and 8th, chances are your going to win a close game.”
Wait? Ty Wigginton made it??? What a joke!!! That’s total BS…he doesnt deserve it!
Too bad Joey Votto isnt in the AL b/c he surely deserves it more then Wiggington does!
Ya but SOMEbody from the Orioles has to make it in. Surely it should’ve been Markakis, but since Wiggington had a good year until the last 3-4 weeks and can play numerous positions, he gets the nod. It sucks, but I understand it.
hmm how do i get into this home run derby thingy? I got a few more homers in me….i’ve been saving them for the derby!
When I saw the title of this post, I thought it was going to be an apology about the whole #6org fiasco.
But you’d be wrong since the only people that write #6org don’t actually understand what the ranking system was about, since it has nothing to do with 2010 performance. Literally every time someone uses that meme, they’re showing the world they’re not smart enough to understand what the rankings were based on.
You’re right! Jack Z is the best GM evah!!! #6org has an awesome farm system! #6org is the greatest!
Go back to USS Mariner….
Using 3 months of play (which includes tons of player under-achievement detached from the front-office) from a franchise that was the sorry bottom-feeder organization of MLB just 2 years ago is fun.
“The upgrades on the roster pushed them into 83-85 win territory in terms of true talent level.”
“So, while the team is flawed, they also have a pretty decent chance of making the playoffs.”
“This team is not very likely to win 83 to 85 games. Instead, they’ll probably win 75 or 90.”
“The combination of a winnable division and a high variance roster gives the Mariners a legitimate chance at winning the World Series this year”
“The Mariners farm system isn’t among baseball’s best.”
So basically he said they can be good, or they can suck. But if they’re good, they can win the WS with Felix, Lee and Bedard.
They have a mediocre farm system, because the “young core” including Jose Lopez, Adam Moore, and Ryan Rowland-Smith are already in the majors.
As good as Jack Z may be, that’s only 33% of the rankings. A team that can either be great or bad, cannot be placed #6 in organizational rankings. Especially when you’re counting on production from Bedard/Bradley/Kotchman/Griffey.
Nothing to do with 2010 performance? What?
You know, from the carnage that will be the 2012 Phillies, I’m most excited to see Charlie Manuel fry.
This guy is an idiot. It makes me feel sick that men can earn high 6 to 7 figure salaries with this level of incompetence and favortism.
Infante? Rhodes? Howard? Get bent, Manuel.
Oh my God. Omar Infante made it to the ASG. This is ridiculous.
Take it easy folks. This isn’t the old days . The game is a joke now and we all know it.
Rios and Votto are having years words cant describe , and they don’t make it……………………so screw ‘em, i wont watch it
The only problem is it’s not a joke when it determine home field advantage.
I expect baseball people like Manual to make bad picks, I expect the players to make bad picks. This will never change, there will always be snubs. Great players will get replaced by not as great players so they get face time. Great pitchers will be on 1-2 inning limits. Guys will play out of position. Pitchers will pitch to unfamiliar catchers.
That’s why it “shouldn’t count”. And why do they continue to run the “THIS time it counts” promotion- it’s the same commercial I’ve seen for 5 years or whatever.
No Liriano? THIS IS WORSE THAN 9/11
What a senseless, horrible, insensitive post.
Ya….but it’s still kinda funny though.
I laughed, felt bad for laughing, then thought about it, and laughed again.
I am a horrible person.
What an overreaction
Isn’t there alreay a discussion thread for the Mainers being the #6 Org?
I know I’m not the thread police, but every post Dave makes eventually turns into the same discussion about the damn Mariners.
I know, I know. If I don’t like it, I can …
I’m just saying.
While I agree that the picks, Charlie’s in particular, were awful and reflect so much that is wrong with the traditional way of baseball thinking, it would serve the sabermetric community so much to not be so condescending and hateful. I am as much a believer as anyone else on this site, but it grows very tiresome climbing up to everyone’s perch to read their articles.
Dave, you are on the front lines of this community because of your outstanding work and insight etc…but it would certainly help if you were a little less self serving and vitriolic in your work. Some may be deserving certainly, but there is no malice in these decisions and it would be nice if we stopped treating them as if they were made with purely evil intentions.
And yes, considering the #6 situation (these 3 months have only reinforced, not proven, a choice most of us knew was…perhaps not the most objective), we can understand a little hometown bias. (A-Rod, Howard)
Now I await the negative ratings. Its a shame a movement that is so open and community driven as this is, is so unable to handle criticism.
It’s not that they were made with evil intentions, they were just made with pure stupidity really. Totally agree with what you’re saying though. Being condescending about it isn’t the way to go, especially since the sabermetrics are hard enough to get even for pretty smart people. I’m a old-school purist type fan. I love batting average and stolen bases and RBIs. It was really hard(and still is) to start buying into the advanced stats and start trying to understand them. I just recently got into it and now I read this site everyday. Being a prick about it and bashing the old school ways though is definitely NOT the way to get people to “conform” to the advanced stats that are clearly better.
I don’t know. Charlie Manuel’s pick of Howard, at least, was not made from stupidity, as he all but admitted that Votto was the better and more deserving candidate. He picked Howard because Howard is “my guy.” Managers have done this forever, and do it every year. I guess it’s not “evil intentions,” but it’s not innocent.
Even in a purely traditional way of thinking, Fausto Carmona getting the nod over Jered Weaver is just ridiculous. Fausto was 7-6 with a 3.60 era before tonights game, which he’s now 7-7 with a 3.62 era or something. Jered Weaver is 8-3 with a sub-3 era and is leading the league in strikeouts. AND THE GAME IS IN ANAHEIM!! What the hell!? That’s ridiculous in its own right, and that’s without mentioning Manuel’s awful, insane choices(Infante?!?!?!?)…
What’s really weird though is that the fans actually did a better job than the managers and players this time around.
It seems to me that Dave has reasoned this through pretty well, and yes these players were all deserving and there prospective electors failed them…. this is no reason to revolt against the system. The all star game is broken… If one choses to win one must chose less than the best players for reasons of specific ability. If one wants only to win the game then taking the best and hottest players makes sense, it is a hard comprises to succeed in… all want the same thing but none know how to achieve those means… this is the best solution
we have and it is better than any alternative…
You could make an argument for Paul Konerko getting snubbed to, albeit a less strong argument.
Still a pretty strong one though. He’s got 20 bombs and although he’s cooled off a bit recently I think, he was simply mashing the ball for a while there. I’ve always like Konerko, anytime he’s having a really good year, i’d love to see him in the all-star game. Surely him or Rios should’ve been The Lone Rep over Thornton right?
I’ve decided my first post at my new website would be dedicated to calling Charlie Manuel an idiot (and it took a lot of strength to not just write “STUPID” 1000 times).
http://www.sportshaze.com/2010-mlb-all-star-game-snubs-national-league/
Dur, you should totally make fun of his accent.
Note to author: WAR is a predictive stat (especially for pitchers).
To put things into perspective David Price is 13th in the AL in WAR (starting pitchers)… while that could mean he may have been lucky and he may regress, has he really had the 13 best 1st half of the year?
It’s getting rough watching people using models and predictive stats to rewrite past performance… the result is the result and while thee stats may suggest a change going forward it doesn’t change what has happened.
You wouldn’t use a stock market model to rewrite the value of your portfolio, you’d use it to determine how to proceed moving forward. The guy who earned 500K didn’t have a better year than the guy who earned 1mil simply because he was unlucky and should have earned more according to the model. However going forward you could use the model to project which person is likely to have the better year coming up.
Fair, but you forget one thing: pitcher performance (ex: ERA) is not simply the biproduct of statistical prediction and random error, like the stock market. It is those two, AND defense (a 3rd element). So while it’s reasonable to say “well it happened, so who cares what his WAR is”, it’s not perfect. Though I do understand your point.
If you believe that then actually measure the impact of the defense, don’t just simply eliminate all balls in play, and throw K’s, BB’s and HR’s into an empirical model and say it should have been “X”.
How about looking at the UZR of the team behind the pitcher and whether or not it’s better/worse than average instead of just ignoring balls in play? Or measure how many outstanding plays were made or how many runs were saved if you are going to rewrite past performance.
Simply ignoring >50% of the pitcher’s batters is not measuring anything, it is PREDICTING. It is a potentially highly useful and powerful prediction tool, but it is being misused, and in my view doing sabremetrics a great dis-service.
Okay fine, let’s look at his tERA (which includes all his balls).
that’s 3.63.
SImply put, there is a lot of lot of luck involved when your LOB rate is almost 80% as a starter, though to be fair, a lot of starters are getting lucky right now in that regard. It’s simply not sustainable, though (ex: Ubaldo Jiminez crashing back down to earth, hard).
So he’s been lucky… does that make his **past*** value lower or rather suggest his future value may not be as great as it appears?
Jiminez is also a great example – his #’s suggest he was heading for a regression, even folks who aren’t fans of sabremetrics could understand that, but does any of that change the **actual** value of his first 14 starts?
Were his first 14 starts less valuable to the Rockies because they should have theoretically been worse than they turned out?
You see, another logical fallacy: you’re attributing all the success to Jiminez, and not factors out of his control that helped him along the way.
Jiminez doesn’t have a microscopic BABIP w/out his team playing excellent defense behind him. Maybe he has an impact on the defense? Who knows. You’re still attributing the whole to a player. It’s like when someone says Brett Favre > Aaron Rodgers because Favre’s team won those games.
Sure, Favre played well. Sure, he’s still good. But acting like the Vikings success v. the Packers was all Favre, is simply wrong.
Another logical fallacy is assuming any ball in play is outside of the pitchers control and in order to eliminate the delta between one pitcher’s defense and another’s you should just eliminate all balls in play. I’m not attributing the “whole” to one player, but I’m also not going to bury my head in the sand and ignore 65-75% of all plays when evaluating something that has already occurred because the defense MIGHT have had an impact on what 2-5% more than another pitcher’s defense?
As for Jiminez – how do you know? His pitching has occurred n the past, what are the **ACTUAL** number of great plays behind him? Don’t just model it and assume that is the case… if he plays in Philadelphia or SD or NY (Citi)… how many fewer plays are made behind those defenses? What is the actual # since we are looking at results?
I’d rather look at the actual results to determine past performance as opposed to modeling them. When I want to look at how I think a player will do going forward I will use sabremetrics…. as they were intended to be used.
Again Jiminez’ past value is what it is, it may be unsustainable, it may be lucky, it may regress. I’m not attributing all the success to Jiminez, I’m just not going to ignore 66% (?) of his work because a play here or there may have been lucky or great defense. The question is how much of that 66% (or whatever the % of balls in play) is great defense that other pitchers don’t get or bad defense that other pitchers do get. I’m not going to guess at what ‘should have been’ – If he gave up 1 run over 8 innings on a given night the value to the Rockies is the same whether it was a solo HR or 3 singles strung together.
So how many great defensive plays has Jiminez got over league average thus far? 5? 15? 100? How many runs has that impacted? How many poor defensive plays have been made behind him (not errors)? How has that impacted him vs league average?
So now you’re drawing the “well prove it” card, you prove this: How is a .245 BABIP w/ an 18% line drive rate (aka Jimenez’s numbers in his first 14 starts) NOT an indication of luck? Even extreme GB pitchers struggle to sustain that level, and Jimenez is an average GB/FB pitcher in that regard.
And pitchers simply don’t have a lot of control on their balls in play. If you want to disprove the single most important slice of baseball research of the past decade, by all means, do it. I’ll peer review it, and you might have a new believer. But until then, I’ll stick to my guns in that Josh Johnson was a better pitcher than Ubaldo Jimenez in 2010 all along.
BTW
Ubaldo Jimenez’s BABIP on line drives, per baseball-reference.com, is .649.
The league average is .724.
His BABIP against on line drives, per year.
2009: .706
2008: .784
2007: .711
So, when 19% of balls in play are line drives, and Jimenez gives up, let’s say, 20 balls in play an outing, that’s 3.8 line drives. That’s .285 extra base hits per game turned into outs.
Don’t think that’s significant? If a double is worth 0.7 runs, and an out worth -0.1, then that snag saves 0.8 runs. Hey, that’s pretty close to the difference between his ERA (2.27) and FIP (3.20).
What are you saying? FIP is performance based. It just focuses on the facets of performance that have proven to be more important/more controllable. Price has pitched to a 3.6 FIP, a good, but not great mark. We’re not saying he shouldn’t be in, because we expect his ERA to regress to a non-all star level, but because his performance to this point, measured by FIP, has not been strong enough to warrant his spot.
I’m saying his performance is better than 13 best… whether luck, great defense or random variation, he’s still been better than 13 best.
FIP is not saying he has performed 13th best, it’s saying at his current levels he will likely regress to 13th best… it’s stunning that people cannot see that subtle but critiical difference.
FIP is not measuring how many runs a pitcher has given up, it is multiplying strikeouts by 2, walks (and HBP) by 3, HR’s by 13 dividing by IP and adding a constant to make it look like an ERA and PREDICTING what a normal outcome would be. It is not the actual outcome, but a guess/prediction of what the outcome SHOULD have been. Again highly useful looking forward… but a guy giving up a solo HR is not less valuable that gives up 6 runs via singles and doubles simply because we choose to ignore balls in play. Over time it may “average out” and again that is where the prediction aspect of sabremetrics and expected regression comes into play.
I’m saying that the great defense helping him out means he hasn’t preformed 13th best. Him, in combination with his teammates, have made him better than the 13th best starter, but if we take out what his teammates did to factor in that performance, we have what he contributed to it, which is a 3.60 FIP.
So put Price on an ”average” defensive team and he would be the 13best starter in the AL this first half? We actually know this or are just guessing? How many great plays (above league average) has Price benefited from?
Folks FIP is a predictive model… it is based on large data sets and to assume all pitchers benefit equivalently from K, BB and HR’s is to not understand the game of baseball. Over long periods of time and over huge #’s of pitchers it may average out, but that doesn’t mean you can apply it absolutely to every individual. What you can do is rely on regression to determine if performance is sustainable.
Is a pitcher who pitches a complete game 1 hitter with 1 solo HR less valuable than a pitcher who pitches a complete game and gives up 8 singles and 4 runs. FIP (and therefor WAR) tells me the guy who gave up 4 runs on 8 hits was more valuable to his team on that day (I’m assuming equal K and BB). While this may ‘even out’ over time you cannot say the guy who gave up 1 run was less valuable than the guy who gave up 4 runs.
this post is lame
I don’t think it’s lame at all. My dynasty league made a change to scoring that roughly corresponds to FIP-based evaluation and we’re discussing this very dichotomy (prediction vs. measurement) constantly. It’s actually been a very instructive process as you can see how FIP distorts things when applied on a start to start basis, and how the idea of what pitchers do or do not control becomes hazier from an anecdotal perspective. FWIW, I’m in Yikes’ camp on this.
Can someone please explain to me why Mr. Cameron, from the majority, gets a pass for the arrogance and delusions of grandeur he exhibits in posts like these?
I think its because of all the sympathy he gets from the many condescending people leaving snarky, inane comments under his posts.
Which makes me wrong… how?
Gets a pass? What on earth are you even talking about? He’s a writer on the internet. If you disagree with what he says, feel free to express your own opinion. If you find his style of writing unappealing, feel free to take your business elsewhere.
The all-star game is a joke and a complete waste of time. Its a shame because I actually used to look foward to it. But, I certainly won’t be watching this year.
As someone who owns Votto on a fantasy team, I am perversely happy at this egregiously idiotic snub. Judging from the fact that he got ejected from today’s game in the first inning, I expect him to keep up the tear he’s been on. He’s going to be on a mission in the second half to win the MVP so that he can shove it up Charlie Manuel’s ignorant nepotistic *bleep*.
why do you guys care so much? the all-star game always has and always will be a joke. Yankees, Sox and Cubs fans vote hundreds of times for every one of their players.
and Charlie Manuel is really old
Not a single Sox player made it in on the fan vote (Though one might get in on the final vote, but he’s very clearly the most deserving candidate anyway). I haven’t looked very closely at the NL one, but I’m not entirely certain any of the Cubs were voted in by fans either.
Yes this is true most of the time. Cubs fans this year did not infiltrate the vote because we are really pissed off at the team. However, every team does this but you listed the big 3 as in numbers of fans which can affect the vote.
Repeat after me – the All-Star is a glorified exhibition. Nothing more. Arguably the stupidest thing Selig has done as commissioner was to cave in to the ‘baseball purists’ after the tie ASG game in order to ‘make this game count.’ So he gave an incredibly important thing – home field advantage in the WS – based upon an exhibition game. Ugh.
ASG started out in ’33 in Chicago as a pure exhibition/desperation marketing ploy to keep Americans interested in baseball during a time of record attendance lows.
Frankly I could care less who wins the ASG. I am just interested in seeing some of the individual matchups. Outcome is largely meaningless especially with Interleague play now. The only reason that a number of the players really care is because that a number of them have clauses in that their contract that give them extra amount ($10k, $25k, $50k) for getting an All-Star selection.
Uh… “baseball purists?”
You mean “FOX executives?”
No. Go back at the time and look at any column from a prominent baseball writer who has a HOF vote. They acted like it was a travesty of justice. It was an exhibition and still should be an exhibition with no impact outside of the game.
I feel sorry for Omar, now every fan is going to hate him when their team’s deserving player didn’t make the team. Thanks Charlie.
The managers don’t actually have many picks. As a Red Sox fan I think Youkilis should have made it, but I can not argue with Morneau and Cabrera making it, and Papi and Vlad deserve it at DH. Youk can play 3B but I see why Longoria and Beltre made it, and although A-Rod does not deserve it this year, the dude is closing in on 600 HR. Wiggington gets in only because the Orioles need a representative and who else is there.
Youk probably gets in on the internet vote unless Yankee fans swamp the internet with votes for Swisher.
The ASG is a joke anyways, I could care less. maybe if they played a best 2 of 3 series and played the best players instead of treating it as an exhibition match I would watch more than the highlights.
What, you don’t think Red Sox fans will “swamp the internet” with votes for Youk?? It goes both ways. I voted for Konerko and hope he gets in. Anyone that votes for someone other than Votto on the other side is a moron or a total homer that cares nothing for the actual integrity of the sport of baseball.
And why exactly did you vote for Konerko? Was it his higher strikeout rate, lower slugging and OBP numbers or his lower quality defense?
Matt Says
“When did wins become a credible stat for pitchers?”
I think around 1885.
Both Girardi and Manuel did a terrible job with their manager’s picks, snubbing much more worthy players like Youkilis, LIriano, Votto, Bell and Wagner in order to get “their guys” onto the squad. A-Rod, Sabathia, Howard, Rhodes, and Infante don’t belong there.
No one has complained about Valverde, so I don’t see why people complain about Rhodes so much. He matched the all-time record for consecutive scoreless innings (on top of pitching very effectively); there are worse reasons for sending someone to an all-star game.
How many of those innings were closing out a tight game? I think there’s a big difference between being a middle reliever and closing. Maybe not in terms of actually pitching in the ASG, but in terms of how hard/easy your job is and, thus, how to value performance.
To be fair, how many of Valverde’s saves were closing out a tight game? A three run lead with no one on doesn’t particularly qualify, although it would still garner a save if converted.
Almost all of them. There were only 3 instances out of those 18 saves where the lead was as big as 3 runs. And, IMO, even with a 3-run lead the pressure can still be greater in the 9th than most of the hold situations in the middle of a game. The pressure comes from being in the 9th inning, not necessarily from the score.
Rhodes has pitched in plenty of close games (he is the set-up guy after all), and often against tougher parts of the lineup than Cordero. Just because a guy is a closer doesn’t mean he’s necessarily facing the toughest part of the order; it’s as much a matter of timing (who’s due up in the 9th in a typical game) and tradition (can’t use the closer in the 7th inning!) as anything. Dusty has more latitude with Rhodes and has brought him in to get key outs in situation where he *can’t* use his closer due to silly usage norms. Further, he’s no LOOGY and has been reasonably effective vs. RHHs (all of his walks are to righties but they don’t hit him any better than lefties and his whiff rate is strong). As someone who’s watched Rhodes all year, trust me, he’s been superb. ASG superb? YMMV.
Liriano is a perfect example of why it’s problematic to base pitcher WAR on FIP. You are assuming that this .352 BABIP is just bad luck, and thus ignoring it. But his .17 HR/9 rate, which involves far more luck than his BABIP, is treated as “real” in calculating his WAR. In fact, his BABIP is much closer to his career rate than his HR rate. The resulting WAR represents neither Liriano’s true performance nor his true talent — just a weird hybrid that makes him look better than he really is (which of course is very, very good).
shhhh… we only assume luck on balls in play.
A catcher dropping a foul tip, a bad umpire, playing in twilight, playing when there’s a jet stream going out or coming in, facing a strong lineup or weak lineup… there’s no luck involved in HR’s, BB, K’s
It isn’t about luck it’s about fielders. Nobody cares if the pitcher was lucky, they care if the pitchers fielders lowered his ERA.
The player who got hosed was Mat Latos.
Let’s not forget about Colby Rasmus too.
“What a disaster”?
Get over yourself, Cameron.
Oh, I think he’s right. Baseball won’t recover from this mortal blow. It’s going to be over the minute fans realize Josh Willingham isn’t out there on the field.
Has anybody considered the fact that Liriano is the next player on the player voting and one of the pitchers the players voted in will be in need of a replacement? That would lead me to believe that Girardi knows what he’s doing
Yeah, one of the biggest apologies belongs to Hong-Chih Kuo. He is better in some ways than his closer, and picking Rhodes over him is a joke. Anyone else see how he “celebrated” his all-star snub last night?
There has never been nor there will there ever be a selection process that is perfect, or truly fair, or great. The selection allows for the fans to rant about the process, which in turn allows us to say……baesball represents the American way of life.
Yea, I was just looking at which players were snubs before I looked at this article. Ridiculous that these guys didn’t make the roster.
i was going to write about Michael Bourn – this guy is terrible, how has no one complained about this pick yet. then i tried to figure out who i would replace him with from the Astros, and ohmigad the Astros are terrible.
oh yeah, and Omar Infante? really? apologies to Omar’s mom, but your son is not an all-star. i’m sorry.
I read a little bit earlier a posting ripping Selig for the way the All-Star team selection is handled. Baseball is in the business of SPORTS! The BEST thing for Sports is Controversy! Everybody Talking, Debating, Arguing about who is or isn’t selected to be on the team is good for the sport…if people keep “debating” then their interest is held. This is what fuels the radio shows, the TV shows, sports networks…
If a player from an awful team gets selected solely on the basis that his team has no representative at the game, then everybody goes nuts debating which of the more deserving players should get that spot. As a result, all of the fans fueling the industry call radio shows and leave messages on blogs and tune in to the experts on TV and so on and so forth!
This is the Greatest Event of the (longest)regular season(as far as number of games go) in Sports! I love baseball, I have several fantasy baseball teams. I watch my team as much as I can and when I can’t watch, I have it up on the computer so I can follow my teams(real and fantasy) in real time. I have been at times furious about the selections for the All-Star Team. I go to work and bitch about the rosters, and defend the selections of my favorites at the same time. I will probably talk about only baseball (as far as sports go) for a 2 week span.
The All-Star Game injects life into the middle of an incredibly long season (especially if your team isn’t contending). Even the lower echelon(often payroll) of teams will have something to talk about! So-so players from bad teams, rookies who haven’t been in the league long enough to earn their stripes, aging players who may be having their last go-round. This showcases talent, but it also fires up the interest of every fan regardless of the team they follow.
The All-Star Game rosters cause more excitement for baseball than any other sport. If you love the sport, but don’t watch the game, I bet you will still talk about who did or didn’t make it to the show.
False dichotomy. There can/will be debate and discussion without glaring omissions. Try again.
I have a few of the larger snubs on my fantasy team and I am actually very happy about it. I think it may give some extra motivation, with some rest to boot.
My Snubs:
Santana (sort of, it won’t be any motivation since I doubt he expected it)
Soto (again, only sort of)
‘Real’ Snubs
Rasmus
Torres
Weaver
Latos
I can’t believe the weaver and latos snubs. Actually Soto is fairly deserving, but his own manager hurts him in this case. Lou is an enormous moron, but that is another thread.
This year’s ASG will survive this year’s picks/snubs just as last year’s game did and next year’s game will.
It is what it is, the cycle repeats. The one thing we can agree on is the B’dud screwed up by trying to make an exhibition “count”.
The biggest snub besides Votto or Weaver is probably Oswalt… why? You think Bourn belongs on the team over him? He’s fast, doesn’t hit for average or power, and isn’t all that good. Oswalt is a 3 time all-star, but has been in the top 5 voting for the Cy Young Award 5 times. And if the Astros didn’t suck, he’d have 9 or10 wins.
Ryan Howard also AIN’T an all-star. Dunn is better, but he’s never been surrounded with absurd talent. His RBI would be much higher if he had the same caliber line-up as Howard.
But why are people ripping on Girardi or Manuel? Torre was far worse. Remember? The Yankees had 8 all-stars every season. If you looked at times guys made the all-star team alone, Bernie Williams, Paul O’Neill, and cats like Posada are definite hall of famers. He even put Mike Stanton and Scott Brosius on there. Pettitte gets on with an ERA of 3.99. So Girardi putting on Hughes, C.C. and Pettitte(only one to deserve it really) isn’t a surprise.
A-Rod shouldn’t be on there, but he chose a ton of Red Sox as well.
And I’m glad someone spoke about the Hall of Fame. Ryan Howard doesn’t belong there,and a pitcher like Oswalt who’s pitched in a hitters’ park for a majority of his 10 seasons has one of the lowest ERAs among pitchers who’ve pitched in over 100 games. He and Carpenter are both only 3 time all-stars, while this is Wainwright’s first selection. Last season didn’t own?
Oh, and Michael Young deserves to be an all-star over A-Rod(no need to add an i in between the o and d.) Brennan Boesch who is the anti-Heyward who is so freaking overrated it’s vomit inducing didn’t make either. But at least Strasburg isn’t on there for all 5 starts. Matt Capps over Billy Wagner? Seriously?
Seriously, put Dunn in Philadelphia’s lineup, his numbers would skyrocket. He’s on pace for more homeruns, has a far higher walk rate, and ISO. Fielding wise, well, Dunn looks like Keith Hernandez compared to Ryan Blubbard.