Indians Comeback!
After being down 10-1 after the first inning, the Indians pulled off the comeback of the year to win the game 15-13 in extra innings. This is one of the craziest win probability graphs I’ve seen this season.
It even bests the August 9th comeback last season, when the Indians overcame a 5 run deficit by scoring 11 runs in the top of the 9th.
David Appelman is the creator of FanGraphs.
Jason said,
August 24, 2006 @ 3:06 pm
IT’S THE ROYALS, ALSO KNOWN AS A TRIPLE A TEAM, WHO CARES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Rob said,
August 24, 2006 @ 3:53 pm
When I heard about this game I had to check out the graph. What was the lowpoint for the Indians (Minimum Win Probability) ? Is this the biggest comeback of the year? I wonder how it compares to that time they had that great comeback vs. the Mariners. I think that was in 2001, tho. I’m guessing 10 run deficits might be off the win probability charts, literally, tho.
David Appelman said,
August 24, 2006 @ 4:55 pm
In the 9th inning the Royals had a 99.4% chance of winning the game. When they were up by 9 in the 1st, they had a 98.1% chance of winning.
This WAS the biggest away team comeback of the season. I looked at games where the home team’s average Win Probability for the entire game was less than the away team’s and the home team lost.
On average, the Royals had a 79.8% chance of winning this game. The next biggest away team comeback of the season was on 5/20 when the Mets played the Yankees. The Mets had 72.5% chance on average to win the game. Last night’s game was the biggest comeback by an away team from 2002-2006.
The biggest comeback of the season, using the same critera as above would be when Adam Dunn hit his walk off grand slam on 6/30 at home.
This is actually a pretty good topic for an entire article….
Brady said,
August 29, 2006 @ 5:37 pm
wouldn’t the biggest comeback of the year be the 11 run deficit the yankees over came against the rangers on may 16th?
Joe said,
September 10, 2006 @ 12:48 pm
Yeah, that Clevland-Mariners comeback game was August 5, 2001, and it was the first thing I thought of as well. It was the difference between Seattle tying the AL 116 win record and setting a 117 win record that year. The Indians came back from being down 12-0 in the 3rd and 14-2 in the 6th. But by the time their comeback got going most of the significant Mariners position players (Ichiro, etc) had been substituted; so while beating a bunch of scrubs and benchwarmers in that game is similar to beating the Royals in this one, the difference is that the Indians managed to get themselves in a 10-1 hole against the Royals in the first place — that’s the improbabability.
http://www.retrosheet.org/boxesetc/B08050CLE2001.htm