It’s Time We Stop Underrating Doug Fister
For most of his career, Doug Fister has been baseball’s version of Rodney Dangerfield. Coming up through the minor leagues, Fister was simply one of a legion of strike-throwing no-stuff guys, and his lack of velocity or anything resembling an out pitch made him more of an afterthought than a prospect. He made it to the majors in the second half of the 2009 season, but his combination of 88 MPH fastballs and a home run problem did nothing to tear down the image of a guy who just threw too many hittable strikes.
But if you look beyond the high-ish HR/FB rate he posted in his rookie year, Fister was actually pretty decent in his first go-around in the Major Leagues. Despite topping out at 90 with his fastball, he got enough leverage on the pitch to generate a decent amount of ground balls. He also threw a well-above average changeup that helped him keep left-handed hitters at bay and generate some swinging strikes, giving him a solid 2.4 K/BB ratio despite pedestrian stuff. It all added up to a 4.43 xFIP, a league average mark for a 2009 AL pitcher.
He pitched well enough to earn a rotation spot in 2010, where he began to show that he might have enough talent to stick as a starter long term. He upped his fastball usage and relied less on his changeup, leading to fewer strikeouts but also even fewer walks. His luck on HR/FB rate swung the other way, helping stave off the idea that he just throws too many strikes. Despite the drop in strikeout rate, the corresponding drop in walks and increase in ground balls gave him a 4.10 xFIP, just slightly better than league average. Rather than being exposed in his first full season, Fister actually improved slightly.
Coming into this year, he still looked like more of a back-end starter than anything else, but Fister decided to change his game up once again. Rather than sitting in the 88-91 range, he started throwing 90-94, adding enough velocity to make a significant difference in the quality of his fastball. He also significantly increased his slider usage, and the result has been that he’s gotten his ability to get strikeouts back without having any negative effect on his crazy low walk rate.
So, now, Fister is settling in as a guy with terrific command of four pitches and a fastball that is quite a bit better than it was earlier in his career. The no-stuff label no longer applies, and while he’s not Justin Verlander, he has the ability to get strikeouts when he needs them. His command and ground ball tendencies allow him to be efficient when he doesn’t need strikeouts, and the still-good changeup gives him a real weapon against left-handed batters.
In short, Doug Fister is now a good starting pitcher. He’s not an overpowering guy, but he’s basically turned himself into the modern version of Brad Radke, and a 3/1 K/BB ratio with the ability to get ground balls is far more than just a generic back-end starter. While the Tigers acquisition of Fister flew under the radar at the trade deadline, he may well have been the best player acquired by any contender, and his presence in their rotation makes them a legitimate threat in the playoffs.
Fister may have come up as a non-prospect, but he’s turned himself into one of the better starting pitchers in the American League. It’s about time he gets the recogntion he deserves.
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What would you have said in 2009 if someone told you Fister would be the best acquisition at a trade deadline?
“Why are the Mariners selling? They’re the #6org with a very bright future!”
That’s 2010
Watching Fister’s last two starts has been a real pleasure.
He threw some really gross two-seamers yesterday, backing up on lefties all game long
I agree that Fister is now an above average starting pitcher and his fast ball velocity has improved, but saying that he’s started throwing 90-94 this year is just false. He had one start where he topped out at 94 but his average FB velocity is still under 90 mph for the year
Strawman Alert.
Yeah he’s definitely not 90-94, that range doesn’t really reflect what he pitches. He might pop off a 93 or a 94 once or twice a start, but he still sits 88-91.
“he has the ability to get strikeouts when he needs them”
He’s gritty. But is he?
Fister’s K/9 and K/BB
bases empty: 6.96, 4.56
men on base: 4.59, 2.53
men in scoring position: 4.14, 1.91
Well, I guess he needs em when the bases are empty ……
The prevailing narrative at the time of the trade was that Doug Fister was just a product of Safeco–like Jarrod Washburn circa 2009 (the Tigers connection fueling that comparison in a big way, no doubt). However, even though Fister was benefiting significantly from a low HR/FB rate, it was pretty clear once you took a closer look at his profile that he would be able to succeed in any ballpark. It’s been quite a joy watching him prove that narrative wrong.
Especially for those of us who, as M’s fans, were reassuring the Tigers fans we knew at the time of the trade that Fister was definitely not Washburn 2.0
Dude was funk nasty yesterday.
His middle name is Wildes. I think that’s the extent of his wild side.
Wildes Fister. Now that’s a starting pitcher.
His K’s and and BB go up on the road. Could it be that he ups his strikeout propensity on the road (and walks too), since he’s only played at pitching parks for his entire home career?
Interesting notion, I think.
I agree with this thinking although it is statistically unsupportable.
Fister’s K rate has jumped from 5.49 K/9 with Seattle this year to 7.31 with Detroit (admittedly boosted by yesterday’s 13 K performance). I wonder if he was more content to pitch-to-contact with the M’s superior defense behind him, but now is going for the K more frequently given the Tigers’ shoddier D.
I think we could expand this to the “Fister Type”. Strikethrowing guys that suppress the long ball, but whose overall numbers don;t look particularly great because they are not high K guys.
Now that home runs numbers are reduced from previous years, and that reality seems to be something that may continue, these pitcher types may continue to experience decent to really good success.
We’re seeing more and more of the guys appear in other organizations not named St. Louis.
Awfully small sample size to think he’s evolved somehow since being dealt to the Tigers. Still, as an M’s fan, I really really wish they’d traded Vargas instead.
“While the Tigers acquisition of Fister flew under the radar at the trade deadline, he may well have been the best player acquired by any contender”
You don’t think it could be Hunter Pence or Michael Bourn?
If we were talking about the player acquired with the biggest impact, I’d be more likely to agree.
While I am quite happy with Fister as a Tiger, I can’t really agree with this article much. The sample size is definitely too small, and the recent trend of Ks is just that. Recent and over a few games. His first 2 games in Detroit (one a 2 IP rain delay start I believe and the other 7 IP he had 0 Ks. He’s had a few games in a row with good KS. That’s it. His K/9 is still in the low 5s this year and in fact it is LOWER than his career K/9 even after this stretch.
He’s a solid pitcher I will agree. Control pitcher that is PITCHING well. Way, way too early to crown this guy as a #2 or something though. Don’t forget he already got lit up for 8 R, 6 ER in a game with Detroit too. I think this needs much more research to draw a conclusion. Opponents for one would be a major need to look at even this small stretch.
It is plainly obvious to anyone he is pitching well, but I don’t find the arguments to present to be accurate, nor convincing really.
sounds like a healthier Justin Duchscherer. I’ll have to watch him in the postseason.
Fister? I hardly know her!
No one can resist this joke.
And she’s my sister!
He’s now Kevin Slowey without the ability to get hurt at every possible turn.
Looks like a better deal when compared to what the Indians gave up to get (Who)Ubaldo Jimenez. Tigers still have thier best pitching prospect to add to the rotation for 2011.
Tigers kept like, their top 5 prospects at the deadline and still made a lot of impact moves. I’m really excited that the Tigers have this guy for another 4 years.
Nah dude. Just nah. Fister sucks as does sorry ass Morrow.
Just going to add to the comments about his start the other day. I probably watched a few innings of a few games where he pitched last year. Seemed like he had decent offspeed, but was mostly a sinker guy. Now he’s pitching to all four quadrants with great command and shaping the FB instead of throwing the sinker up there. When a guy with his command can start doing that AND firm up the FB in general, that’s a guy you have no problem with running out there when you’re facing elimination in the playoffs. Pretty much the definition of a #2. I’m baffled that Jack Z. was extended after trading him for a decent 3B prospect and a bunch of change.
I am a Tiger fan at the core but live in Seattle. Sadly, they are my second favorite team. I had hoped that they would hold on to Fister because they were starting to look like they had a future, including strong young pitching. I hated to see him go but was stoked that it was my Tigers who got him. Before he pitched a single strike I told all my Detroit friends that he will make a difference. I believe with him they have a decent chance in the playoffs.
One thing I think we should remember is the effect that Justin Verlander might have had on this guy. This reminds me of the effect that Roy Halladay had on AJ Burnett and other pitchers when he was with the Jays. His work ethic and need for competition causes everyone to step it up. I still remember watching AJ Burnett using more 2 seamers against left handers trying to backdoor them in for strike three just like halladay. So we cannot forget the effect a great pitcher could have had on a young guy. Fister probably got some pointers from verlander on how to pitch more efficiently …..