Comments on: Izturis Signs, Wood Update

By: Pen Turning

Pen Turning — Mon, 08 Feb 2010 01:35:51 +0000

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By: Greg Foley

Greg Foley — Fri, 12 Dec 2008 04:40:34 +0000

Here is what Tom Tango said in his Q and A response:

TangoTiger said,
December 10, 2008 @ 11:33 am

10 runs is a win: why?

The basic idea is that if you look at all teams in baseball history that have scored 1 more run than they allowed, per game (+/- 0.1, to increase the sample size), you will find that they have a .600 win%. And similarly if they allowed one more run than they score, they will have a .400 win%. That means each additional run leads to 0.100 additional wins, above the .500 mark. And 1 divided by .1 is 10.

The lower the run environment, the more impact each run has. And the higher the run environment, the less impact each run has. So, the 10/1 ratio is not fixed, but dependent on the run environment.

Here is a chart that shows the various win%, for various run environments, at various run differentials:
http://www.tangotiger.net/winactuals.html

By: Marco

Marco — Thu, 11 Dec 2008 21:54:31 +0000

me dumb. please ‘splain.

Can somebody point me to some sort of analysis where 10 runs above replacement = 1 win? Or is that just a quick and dirty estimate?

thanks

By: Sean

Sean — Thu, 11 Dec 2008 03:07:48 +0000

Heres what I get using just Marcel and 2006-2008 bUZR numbers:

-17.2 offense
4.9 pos adjust
4.1 defense
13.8 replace

=5.6 runs which is .53 WAR

If we think WAR=~$5M, 2 years at 6M is overpaying, although only slightly, but WAR may even be less than that.

I would say it’s a pretty fair deal all around.

By: Eric Seidman

Eric Seidman — Thu, 11 Dec 2008 02:44:41 +0000

Sean, thanks for that, I forgot to prorate his adjustment and replacement level. It’s updated in the article now.

For 2009, Marcel has him at -17 runs, modest UZR would be +5 or so, add in +7 for the pro-rated adjustment, and +13 for his prorated adjustment above replacement and we get +8 runs.

That’s 0.8 WAR. If we say it’s $5 mil per win than his FMV is $4 mil, while his actual AAV would be $3 mil.

Even if we adjust down to $4.4 mil given that $5 mil doesn’t seem to be this year’s rate, it would be $3.5 mil compared to his actual AAV of $3 mil. Overall, good deal for the Orioles, though as with any player, health could be a serious concern, and the +8 runs in 150 games is generous given an average of 135 games or so.

By: Fritts

Fritts — Thu, 11 Dec 2008 02:14:31 +0000

Oh, I didn’t realize I was double counting the positional adjustment, so I was really giving him an extra 7.5 runs. Sorry I misunderstood what you were doing and I would tend to agree with you now.

By: Sean

Sean — Thu, 11 Dec 2008 02:06:16 +0000

Fritts, your double counting defense, my 13.5 included a 6.9 pos adjustment (6.9 to scale 162 down to 150). Chone gives him a projection of 7 and 2006-2008 bUZR has him at 5.8 (those are both per 150) add then divide those by 2 giving them equal weight you get 6.4 then add the position adjustment of 6.9 and you get 13.3, and I rounded up to 13.5.

To be fair, I used .335 wOBA for league and could have have used .333 probably. Which would put him at -25.5/150 using a .288 wOBA projection. To get that you do =(.288-.333)/1.15*650.

So I could see him at 7.5/150, which is still less than 1 WAR.

And it’s generous giving him per 150 games numbers (but thats what I always do) as he hasn’t played 150 games since 2004.

By: Fritts

Fritts — Thu, 11 Dec 2008 01:49:06 +0000

Sean, At 461 PA I calculate Izturis at -16.8 runs offensively for 2009. Even you to scale down the runs for positional adjustment and replacement level he still comes in at around 1.5 WAR

The only way he gets close to -26.5 is if I give him 700 PA and then he comes in at -25.5 runs offensively. After +13.5 defense, + 7.5 positional adjustment and +20 for replacement he is at about 1.5 WAR.

I’m not factoring in Oliver, just James and Marcel, but I think Izturis can he projected as a 1 WAR player or a little higher.

By: Sean

Sean — Wed, 10 Dec 2008 23:56:13 +0000

And Eric I’m pretty sure your 2 and 3 steps are wrong. You add 7.5 for 162 game season and you add 2 WAR (21 runs) for a NL full season (700 PA), Izturis had neither of those, so I have no idea why your giving him all that credit.

By: Sean

Sean — Wed, 10 Dec 2008 23:44:49 +0000

Izturis is (in runs):

+13.5/150 defense (looking at 2006-2008 bUZR and Chone)
-26.5/150 offense (looking at Marcel, James, and Oliver)
+19.5/150 replace

=6.5/150

I see about zero ways Izturis can be projected as a 1 WAR player or more.