Comments on: Jeter’s Seven-Win Season

By: MattNC

MattNC — Tue, 09 Feb 2010 06:20:33 +0000

For Jeter’s defensive metrics, I’ll go with Sean Smith:

2007: -16
2008: -4
2009: +5

That’s in line with what my eyes saw. Jeter was poor in ’07, was noticeably better in ’08 (despite dealing with nagging leg injuries and a severely bruised wrist), and was clearly better in ’09. He was getting to far more balls up the middle, and even making throws to first when on the 2nd-base side of the bag.

I expect a 4.5 WAR season from Jeter in 2010 (career average is 4.9/season via Sean).

BTW, Jeter is ranked 60th all-time among position players in WAR on Baseball Projection.com, and that is with harder WAR grading than FanGraphs does (post 2002, of course). Jeter also has 859 career VORP (from Baseball Prospectus; Pete Rose is at 713, by comparison), and is 17th all-time in HOF Monitor (though that rates him too high, IMHO).

Interestingly, in many seasons during his career, Jeter is surpassed on the VORP leader lists by mostly PED-tainted players Consider that when valuing his performance.

Lastly, I’ve seen references to an all-time VORP list, but haven’t been able to find one. Anyone know where one might be? The BP stats only go back to 1954…

By: philkid3

philkid3 — Fri, 22 Jan 2010 20:53:53 +0000

That’s absolutely perfect.

By: William

William — Fri, 22 Jan 2010 04:47:11 +0000

Amen, brother.

By: House in a valley

House in a valley — Thu, 21 Jan 2010 23:39:52 +0000

I think the argument about Mac vis a vi Jeter was that Jeter will be a hall
of faker because his durability has allowed him to have a 7 win season at 35 where guys like Nomar are breaking/broken down. The argument s that had guys like Mac not taken steroids his body may not have been able to stay healthy enough to put together his legendary seasons. Staying healthy is a hallmark of hall of famers, sure guys lik the Mick got hurt, but he was healthy enough to have great seasons. Mac had to take steroids to be that healthy, and it is almost certainly the reason he was able to hit as many as 70 HRs. It’s up to the voters to determine if that’s wrong. But jeter has do e what he’s done elegantly and in a manner universally renown as “the right way,” something should be said for it.

By: Sal Paradise

Sal Paradise — Thu, 21 Jan 2010 23:29:12 +0000

Bingo. That is awesome. Thank you.

By: Kampfer

Kampfer — Thu, 21 Jan 2010 17:26:24 +0000

I like this graph way better. It explains the concept without any words or numbers and you get the whole picture at first glance.

By: wobatus

wobatus — Thu, 21 Jan 2010 16:23:52 +0000

His rTOT was 3.8 in 2009 and -4.9 in 2008. So likely he has been ok and not “the worst” the last 2 years. Certainly acceptable from a ss who hits like he does. Liked the article specifically because it tried to bridge the gap between these opposing views of Jeter, God/annoying media fiction.

By: wobatus

wobatus — Thu, 21 Jan 2010 16:16:40 +0000

The statistical anlysis doesn’t preclude there being luck involved in some of the numbers. That’s kind of the point of a lot of this stuff, that luck plays a far bigger roll in stats like batting average and era than people realize. I understand where you are coming from in that there can be a wide chasm between the saber-fans and non-saber fans, and there is enmity on both sides. But the article does point out improvement in his fielding. he also points to his contact skills, and refers to him as “wildly talented”. Which doesn’t mean it’s all luck. Take a great player, give him a little luck, and voila. Great season

By: William

William — Thu, 21 Jan 2010 16:16:39 +0000

Wow … ‘roid rage?

Seriously, though, I should just be charitable and express my deepest apologies for having offending you as I apparently have very much.

As for getting off-topic, the article prompted a thought and I shared it. You’re right, I should be eviscerated for it.

Let me add, though, that I never said other cheaters should be in the HOF. If I am not mistaken, “integrity” is part of the requirement.

In terms of what I was saying, though, is that Jeter’s outright consistency is just amazing; that yes, he had a great year, but in so many ways it was reminiscent of most that preceded it, and, um, the stark contrast with a person recently in the news who followed a handful of career years then just as suddenly had a dropoff before vanishing struck me.

150+ games and 180 + hits every year (less a single 119 game/156 hit season). Double digit homers and double digit steals (including that season) every year. An average over .290 every year.

Oh, and I teach students who say they should get A’s because they work hard, and some other students don’t. Are they right? And when some of them cheat, do they get credit for the results because others have cheated throughout all of time? What really burns me about McGwire is that he insists on getting exactly this kind of treatment even as he feigns a mea culpa. Some integrity.

By: wobatus

wobatus — Thu, 21 Jan 2010 16:08:33 +0000

Overpaid and overrated are not necessarily the same. And his UZR wasn’t positive in 2008 but was essentially flat, and was posotive in 2009. After awful numbers in 2005-2007, some improvement seems likely to be “real” even if 2009′s uzr may be flukishly high, he seems to at least have been a decent fielder last couple of years.