Joba Rules
I think we can officially put the issue to rest – Joba Chamberlain is a starting pitcher, and a darn good one. After Wednesday’s performance, he’s now made 11 starts since the Yankees converted him back to the rotation from the bullpen, and his performance is basically equal in both roles.
Starter: 60 2/3 IP, 9% BB%, 27% K%, 0.29 HR/9, 2.49 FIP
Reliever: 23 2/3 IP, 11% BB%, 31% K%, 0.38 HR/9, 2.61 FIP
Despite his command issues in his first couple of starts, Joba’s pounding the strike zone with more regularity now that he’s moved into the starting role. Because he’s not throwing max effort on every pitch, his velocity is down, so the strikeout rate declines a bit as well, but it’s offset since he’s throwing more strikes and has a slightly better home run rate.
He won’t be able to keep his home run rate this low, so he’s due for a bit of a regression, but as a guy who gets a lot of ground balls (53.7% GB%), he’s going to allow fewer long balls than the average starter. When you combine a three to one strikeout to walk ratio with a depressed home run rate, you have a front line starting pitcher. It’s still early, but right now, Joba’s profiling as a Jake Peavy type of pitcher.
The rich get richer.
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Dave, who’s better in the long-run; Felix or Joba?
I’m going with Felix. Joba is good, damned good, but Felix is half a year younger, already established as a front-line starter, has 5 MLB caliber pitches, has ++ stuff, including a great 2-Seam fastball, change-up, slider, and curve. Guys like Joba and Lincecum are destined to be the next crop of great starters, but IMO, Felix still has the most upside. I think most teams would be happy to have any of them though, and you know how pitchers are, there’s a possibility neither of them will be the elites of the elites in 3-5 years.
Watching Joba pitch it seems like he’s ahead of the curve in terms of outsmarting hitters. Usually young guys with his stuff just try to overpower hitters, but he looks like he’s fooling them too.