Johan Possibly Heading for Surgery?boa
Another week, another Mets star potentially heading to the disabled list; this time, Johan Santana. MLB.com writer Marty Noble gets the impression from Santana’s teammate that he may require surgery n his left elbow. This is the passage that sticks out the most:
Manuel acknowledged being “terribly concerned,” that Santana had experienced pain in the elbow in recent starts though “not at this level,” the level he experienced in his most recent start, Thursday against the Braves. The manager also indicated Santana had not done normal between-starts throwing for an extended period.
Emphasis is mine. If Santana told the Mets he was experiencing — presumably – worse pain than usual a few starts ago, and they continued to pitch him in what amounts to a lost season, then frankly the Mets are getting their just dues here. That assumes Santana did the responsible thing by speaking up, if he didn’t, then shame on him for being selfish and trying to pitch through a potential injury. Take a look at Santana’s alarming velocity chart:
Missing the rest of this season is largely irrelevant. The Mets aren’t in any type of playoff hunt and it’s more about 2010 with them, which is exactly why this hurts if it’s a procedure that would require a lengthy recovery time. I’d rather not get into speculation, but any time one of the best pitchers is having issues with his pitching elbow, it’s no good.
Who knows what this means for the Mets’ off-season plans. After handing Oliver Perez a pricey free agent contract and seeing him implode, you have to wonder if the Mets would seriously consider handing out another big deal. If not, they could always try one of the injured pitchers on the market like Erik Bedard, Rich Harden, or Ben Sheets, but at least two of them seem incapable of staying healthy for long durations.
Still better than Nelson Figueroa though.
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Maybe they should spend more time developing prospects…as of now, I only see them as having maybe two good ones (Fernando Martinez and Zach Lutz), one of which has already had an uninspiring stint in the bigs (and the other’s still only at advanced-A ball). Neither are pitchers. Yikes.
I may be just bowing to conventional wisdom but I like Mejia, Holt and Davis much more than I like Lutz.
So conventional wisdom elects Holt’s 2009 (5.01 FIP, 6.98 K/9, 3.57 BB/9, .292 BABIP) as prospect numbers? God help you.
uhh….
Yeah actually, would Lutz even make a top 10 list?
Jennry Mejia, Brad Holt, Josh Thole, Wilmer Flores, Jefry Marte, Reese Havens.
Mejia and Holt are pitchers, FWIW.
P.S. I almost forgot about Niese, although he doesn’t really project to be a #1 (or even really a #2) starter.
If Johan goes down for even half of the 2010 season, you have to punt the season. It’s not even up for debate. Get cheap filler so that you don’t have to rush Fernando Martinez, Ike Davis or Josh Thole. Let them play their way onto the team with an eye towards being real contributors in 2011. Start talking to Jose Reyes about a longterm extension while his value is at its lowest. Look to trade Luis Castillo, eating some money, obviously. Get Beltran surgery if he needs it to give him the best chance at being worthwhile in 2011.
Basically make decisions with an eye towards ’11 or probably beyond.
BTW, maybe the Mets should be thinking this way even if Johan is in fact ready for 2010. They’re stuck in no man’s land, right now. If the payroll could remain the same or be upped, I’d say make your push through 2011 but the rumors are that it’s going down so they’ll need the kids to help and that’s going to take time.
Given the ratio of resources to success, are the Mets the worst run organization in MLB?
How do you let your franchise pitcher pitch for weeks with an injured elbow?
You can blame some of the injuries on the Mets but discounting bad luck from the equation is just as wrong as discounting Omar’s responsibility.
Your second question is valid and truly disturbing but Omar/Mets management did not single-handedly make this a 57-68 team. That would be some massive hyperbole.
Ok, but I’m not just talking about this season.
I think it’s a toss up between the Mets, the Blue Jays, and the Cubs. all three look to be in deep, deep trouble to me.
Joe Morgan thinks the Cubs “overreacted” to being swept in last year’s ALDS. I think it may be the only time I’ve ever agreed with Joe Morgan.
Even if he did start the Mark DeRosa remembrance tour in the North Side.
Tommy John now almost assuredly puts him out until August of ’10 and maybe the whole season (Brain Westbrook’s recovery reminds that not all TJs are coming back in 12 months). In the meantime they are still paying him, and even the Mets have a budget. The farm system is bare, Beltran looks to have to move from the outfield to first at some point in the next couple of years, and K Rod is finally regressing a bit. What can they do? If Santana goes down I think the Cubs and Mets are going to be going through an amazingly painful rebuilding process while they choke down a staggering amount of salary.
The Mets farm system is not bare. Martinez Holt and Mejia were all BA mid-season top 50 players. All 3 have had issues since then but things don’t change so drastically overnight. Flores has potential. Havens. Tejada. Thole. Ike Davis is likely top 100. Familia. There are others.
It is not as bare as many people thought coming into the season. Not one of the top systems but solid and improving I’d say.
Perhaps goes without saying that i ama a Mets fan, but not being a blind homer here.
I shouldn’t have said bare. What I meant was there is really no help on the way. They have 4-5 guys in the top 100, but of the 3 guys guys in the top 50 (Martinez, Flores, Mejia) one is 18, one is 19, one is 20 and all have had injuries. They are all 2 years plus away. They have no prospects in the top 20, while the Phillies have 2, maybe 3 if you like Drabek that much.
As a Cubs fan I feel the pain you are about to feel.
Yes. Omar has done poorly filling out the roster. It was unfortunate that the injury skein hit this year. Next year they could have withstood it better as the minor league talent would be farther along, but no team could take this many injuries.
Jon Heyman says the following on twitter
“pretty good news on santana. arthroscopic surgery is recommended. be back next year. #mets”
Citing Jon Heyman on a statistically-oriented website for anything outside of ridicule? That’s a first.
The Mets are vying with the Cubs for worst run organization in MLB imo. They both have committed almost all of their money to their very best players and just filling out the rest of the roster not building talented depth. That’s why when injuries bit both teams fell apart. Obviously the Mets have been incredibly unlucky as far as injuries but they should have had capable replacements waiting in the wings with all the money they have. It’s good that they’ve started paying attention to fielding a decent farm system as of late but unfortunately a lot of the top guys simply aren’t ready to contribute. Minaya has done just an absolute horrendous job
Thole doesn’t project as much more than a 8-spot hitter, so if his defense is a plus, yay. Mejia has some excellent stuff, but he needs a lot more time yet (especially to get his control). Holt’s proven little this year.
Lutz is actually pretty highly regarded by those interested in complete hitters, and Mets minor league bloggers believe he’s got a major league bat…this year he’s been shaking off cobwebs from a year/year-and-a-half of injuries.
Dropped the ball on Ike Davis, though. Kid’s a gamer. So that gives the Mets Martinez and Davis as legit prospects. Lutz and Mejia as “project” prospects. Still not liking those odds (sorry Flores, Marte fans, but those K-rates are atrocious; and Havens needs to iron out inconsistencies).
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