Comments on: Johan’s Remaining Deal http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/johans-remaining-deal/ Daily baseball statistical analysis and commentary Sun, 12 Feb 2012 19:14:16 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: angelos http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/johans-remaining-deal/#comment-93820 angelos Thu, 27 Aug 2009 21:52:34 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=8650#comment-93820 this is such a waste of an article. this is such a waste of an article.

]]> By: B http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/johans-remaining-deal/#comment-93787 B Thu, 27 Aug 2009 19:28:16 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=8650#comment-93787 And is that a significant difference...? And is that a significant difference…?

]]> By: B http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/johans-remaining-deal/#comment-93786 B Thu, 27 Aug 2009 19:27:31 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=8650#comment-93786 @David A - Honestly, using anecdotal evidence that some pitchers "seem" to buckle down better than other pitchers doesn't tell us a thing. If you've read any studies that suggest this may be the case, by all means, give us a link, but I highly doubt over any substantial sample size there's very much variation between pitchers in how they pitch with runners on vs. with no runners on. @David A – Honestly, using anecdotal evidence that some pitchers “seem” to buckle down better than other pitchers doesn’t tell us a thing. If you’ve read any studies that suggest this may be the case, by all means, give us a link, but I highly doubt over any substantial sample size there’s very much variation between pitchers in how they pitch with runners on vs. with no runners on.

]]> By: Wally http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/johans-remaining-deal/#comment-93656 Wally Thu, 27 Aug 2009 01:10:10 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=8650#comment-93656 All wins aren't worth the same to each team, you're right, but over the last two years each win has still be worth a lot for the Mets. Just being in the race down to the last weekend is pretty darn valuable, as is entering the season expecting to compete. So, while the Mets may have missed out on some playoff cash, they did receive 2 years of playoff hunt cash, and now a 3rd year of at least entering the season as a contender. That's better than accumulating $32M of value with the Royals so far, as Greinke has done.... All wins aren’t worth the same to each team, you’re right, but over the last two years each win has still be worth a lot for the Mets. Just being in the race down to the last weekend is pretty darn valuable, as is entering the season expecting to compete. So, while the Mets may have missed out on some playoff cash, they did receive 2 years of playoff hunt cash, and now a 3rd year of at least entering the season as a contender. That’s better than accumulating $32M of value with the Royals so far, as Greinke has done….

]]> By: Andrew http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/johans-remaining-deal/#comment-93634 Andrew Wed, 26 Aug 2009 22:14:15 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=8650#comment-93634 The Mets only missed the playoffs the last two years by literally one game. It was not a foregone conclusion that they were going to miss the playoffs and I really don't think any individual starting pitcher could've put them over the edge and placed below 3rd in MVP balloting. And for what it's worth, PECOTA had them winning the division this year too. If you're spending >$100million (or even $30million) on payroll, you have to be doing so with the intention of making the playoffs, which is worth millions of dollars in revenue. I think a playoff berth has been calculated to be worth $20 million, so if Johan had pitched the Mets into the playoffs in back-to-back years he would've been worth his contract and then some. The Mets only missed the playoffs the last two years by literally one game. It was not a foregone conclusion that they were going to miss the playoffs and I really don’t think any individual starting pitcher could’ve put them over the edge and placed below 3rd in MVP balloting. And for what it’s worth, PECOTA had them winning the division this year too.

If you’re spending >$100million (or even $30million) on payroll, you have to be doing so with the intention of making the playoffs, which is worth millions of dollars in revenue. I think a playoff berth has been calculated to be worth $20 million, so if Johan had pitched the Mets into the playoffs in back-to-back years he would’ve been worth his contract and then some.

]]> By: Garrett http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/johans-remaining-deal/#comment-93594 Garrett Wed, 26 Aug 2009 18:48:52 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=8650#comment-93594 I still think Carlos Gomez ends up as a good player. .656 OPS at only 23 isn't the end of the world and his defense numbers have been off the charts (a bit down in 2009 but still very good). If he develops any power at all, I think he could end up being a good player and if he really develops could still be special. I still think Carlos Gomez ends up as a good player. .656 OPS at only 23 isn’t the end of the world and his defense numbers have been off the charts (a bit down in 2009 but still very good). If he develops any power at all, I think he could end up being a good player and if he really develops could still be special.

]]> By: David A http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/johans-remaining-deal/#comment-93566 David A Wed, 26 Aug 2009 17:54:29 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=8650#comment-93566 SLG pct is way down with RISP--.323 according to the chart i looked at. vs. .382 with the bases empty and .369 with a man on first. which tells me he doesn't give up too many three run homers or bases-clearing doubles. OBP isn't really any different, but this drop in SLG would definitely cut down on the runs allowed from those few men who do reach base. SLG pct is way down with RISP–.323 according to the chart i looked at. vs. .382 with the bases empty and .369 with a man on first. which tells me he doesn’t give up too many three run homers or bases-clearing doubles. OBP isn’t really any different, but this drop in SLG would definitely cut down on the runs allowed from those few men who do reach base.

]]> By: Joe R http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/johans-remaining-deal/#comment-93548 Joe R Wed, 26 Aug 2009 16:40:15 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=8650#comment-93548 Career line of: .225/.281/.368 RISP line of: .219/.285/.356 Looks like pretty much the same guy to me, unless I'm not looking at the right stuff. Career line of: .225/.281/.368
RISP line of: .219/.285/.356

Looks like pretty much the same guy to me, unless I’m not looking at the right stuff.

]]> By: David A http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/johans-remaining-deal/#comment-93546 David A Wed, 26 Aug 2009 16:36:12 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=8650#comment-93546 thanks. i looked up the calculation and was surprised at how little goes into it. my first point about strand rate wouldn't be an issue, but the second would i think. some pitchers just seem to be more capable of buckling down and pitching better with RISP. Santana's career On Base splits are pretty telling: http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?n1=santajo02&year=Career&t=p#bases thanks. i looked up the calculation and was surprised at how little goes into it. my first point about strand rate wouldn’t be an issue, but the second would i think. some pitchers just seem to be more capable of buckling down and pitching better with RISP.

Santana’s career On Base splits are pretty telling:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?n1=santajo02&year=Career&t=p#bases

]]> By: Xeifrank http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/johans-remaining-deal/#comment-93543 Xeifrank Wed, 26 Aug 2009 16:34:00 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=8650#comment-93543 is player production from a team that makes the playoffs, makes it to the W.S., or even wins the W.S. worth more than player production from a player who is on a team that does not make the playoffs? If the Mets had had a replacement level player instead of J.Santana the past two years, they would have won a few less games, but still not have made the playoffs either year. And more importantly would have an extra $34M in their pockets. Is it really correct to say that a team like the Mets got what they paid for? I understand the WAR computations and conversion to $value$. It just seems like the value of a win to each team is different. Beforehand you may not know this value, but afterwards you should have a good idea. And we are afterwards on the first two years of his contract now. vr, Xei is player production from a team that makes the playoffs, makes it to the W.S., or even wins the W.S. worth more than player production from a player who is on a team that does not make the playoffs?

If the Mets had had a replacement level player instead of J.Santana the past two years, they would have won a few less games, but still not have made the playoffs either year. And more importantly would have an extra $34M in their pockets.

Is it really correct to say that a team like the Mets got what they paid for? I understand the WAR computations and conversion to $value$. It just seems like the value of a win to each team is different. Beforehand you may not know this value, but afterwards you should have a good idea. And we are afterwards on the first two years of his contract now.

vr, Xei

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