Comments on: Johan’s Velocity http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/johans-velocity/ Daily baseball statistical analysis and commentary Sun, 12 Feb 2012 10:52:49 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: dj http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/johans-velocity/#comment-87785 dj Mon, 27 Jul 2009 21:44:19 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=5567#comment-87785 seems like his stats have been trending down since '04. seems like his stats have been trending down since ’04.

]]> By: Omar Ferrer http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/johans-velocity/#comment-81109 Omar Ferrer Thu, 18 Jun 2009 06:03:50 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=5567#comment-81109 This is by far the best baseball site out there. Taking this analysis to the ground, I don't believe velocity is the issue. Even is he starts throwing more pitches at the 87+ range with that nasty changed up he has he'll be OK. If you saw the game that day, his location and mix of pitches was terrible. It seems to me that he did not used his changed up as much as in other games. It will be interesting to find out how many pitches by type he threw that day vs previous games. This is by far the best baseball site out there. Taking this analysis to the ground, I don’t believe velocity is the issue. Even is he starts throwing more pitches at the 87+ range with that nasty changed up he has he’ll be OK. If you saw the game that day, his location and mix of pitches was terrible. It seems to me that he did not used his changed up as much as in other games. It will be interesting to find out how many pitches by type he threw that day vs previous games.

]]> By: Manuel from Caracas http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/johans-velocity/#comment-81014 Manuel from Caracas Wed, 17 Jun 2009 18:44:39 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=5567#comment-81014 David It´s incredible to see this kind of analisis free for everyone. Thanks a lot for the time you take doing this job. I trend to think the problem with Johan is not about his velocity. Has you see Johan.s platoon splits this year? Against RHB he is still keeping his dominance as the last year (637 OPS in 2008 vs 642 OPS in 2009) but against LHB his OPS is now 810, almost 140 higher than the last year, and this year the ratio of LHB vs RHB is lowest in his carrer (2.2 RHB by each LHB this year vs 2.7 RHB by each LHB the last year). The only explanation I can find is in the mix of pitches he is throwing against LHB, which shows a decrease of the change-up pitch from 14% in 2009 to 8% in 2009 in favor of the cutter, which has been throwed 7% this year against 1% the last year. Traditionally Santana has been hurted more by LHB than by RHB but this year is ridiculous. I doubt this change is due to any kind of blister or a decrease in his velocity and looks more as a wrong strategy by his part. David
It´s incredible to see this kind of analisis free for everyone. Thanks a lot for the time you take doing this job. I trend to think the problem with Johan is not about his velocity.
Has you see Johan.s platoon splits this year?
Against RHB he is still keeping his dominance as the last year (637 OPS in 2008 vs 642 OPS in 2009) but against LHB his OPS is now 810, almost 140 higher than the last year, and this year the ratio of LHB vs RHB is lowest in his carrer (2.2 RHB by each LHB this year vs 2.7 RHB by each LHB the last year). The only explanation I can find is in the mix of pitches he is throwing against LHB, which shows a decrease of the change-up pitch from 14% in 2009 to 8% in 2009 in favor of the cutter, which has been throwed 7% this year against 1% the last year.
Traditionally Santana has been hurted more by LHB than by RHB but this year is ridiculous.
I doubt this change is due to any kind of blister or a decrease in his velocity and looks more as a wrong strategy by his part.

]]> By: CC http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/johans-velocity/#comment-80988 CC Wed, 17 Jun 2009 15:03:45 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=5567#comment-80988 yeah---i think it's called fangraphs.com or something like that... yeah—i think it’s called fangraphs.com or something like that…

]]> By: Gary from Chapel Hill http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/johans-velocity/#comment-80979 Gary from Chapel Hill Wed, 17 Jun 2009 13:49:16 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=5567#comment-80979 Dave, I don't want to hijack this discussion, but I also don't see an easy way to contact any of you guys through email, so here goes: Last week, David Appleman posted an article on "The Best Fastball of 2009" and I wondered in the comments how to tell if the pitch value tables were up to date (since there is no "stats thru" date). He replied that they are updated every day by 6:30 AM (unless there is a hiccup) and if the pitcher log is updated, then the pitch value tables are also updated. Well, as of 9:00 EDT this morning, I see that Wakefield's outing in listed in his game log, but the pitch values for all of the Red Sox hitters are exactly the same as yesterday. Like I told David, I'm not griping because this stuff is fantastic. I'd just like to have an idea of "when" I'm looking at! Dave,

I don’t want to hijack this discussion, but I also don’t see an easy way to contact any of you guys through email, so here goes:

Last week, David Appleman posted an article on “The Best Fastball of 2009″ and I wondered in the comments how to tell if the pitch value tables were up to date (since there is no “stats thru” date). He replied that they are updated every day by 6:30 AM (unless there is a hiccup) and if the pitcher log is updated, then the pitch value tables are also updated.

Well, as of 9:00 EDT this morning, I see that Wakefield’s outing in listed in his game log, but the pitch values for all of the Red Sox hitters are exactly the same as yesterday.

Like I told David, I’m not griping because this stuff is fantastic. I’d just like to have an idea of “when” I’m looking at!

]]> By: Harry Pavlidis http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/johans-velocity/#comment-80948 Harry Pavlidis Wed, 17 Jun 2009 01:01:16 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=5567#comment-80948 Justin - The dips may not be dips at all, or at least in part are due to park effects. I'll have more on that next week in part 2 Thanks HP Justin – The dips may not be dips at all, or at least in part are due to park effects. I’ll have more on that next week in part 2
Thanks
HP

]]> By: Rich http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/johans-velocity/#comment-80940 Rich Tue, 16 Jun 2009 22:44:31 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=5567#comment-80940 I think it would be useful to look at his velocity over a longer time horizon, for example, the last three seasons. I think it would be useful to look at his velocity over a longer time horizon, for example, the last three seasons.

]]> By: Justin http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/johans-velocity/#comment-80920 Justin Tue, 16 Jun 2009 18:37:35 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=5567#comment-80920 There are links to that THT article in my comment that I should have bolded or underlined. Here's the URL: <b><a href="http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/johan-santanas-blister-and-the-rub-of-pitchf-x/" rel="nofollow">http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/johan-santanas-blister-and-the-rub-of-pitchf-x/</a></b> There are links to that THT article in my comment that I should have bolded or underlined. Here’s the URL: http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/johan-santanas-blister-and-the-rub-of-pitchf-x/

]]> By: Justin http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/johans-velocity/#comment-80919 Justin Tue, 16 Jun 2009 18:34:38 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=5567#comment-80919 This strikes me as fairly silly. It's not terrifically surprising that the average fastball over 93 MPH is coming out to be the same speed for each of the time intervals - you're using speed as your threshold, after all. (I'm not saying using "93 MPH+" as your cutoff will guarantee this result, just that it will make it artificially more likely.) I would think that using some kind of percentile (like the top 5% of fastballs, or the top 1%, or even the maximum) would be much more appropriate. I don't have the data handy to do the analysis myself (I second R M's question), but there's a <a href="http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/johan-santanas-blister-and-the-rub-of-pitchf-x/" rel="nofollow">post</a> up at the Hardball Times today that has some of the relevant data, and it certainly <a href="http://www.hardballtimes.com/images/uploads/santana-tht-00a_thumb.PNG" rel="nofollow">seems</a> like Johan's peak fastball in June has been a couple miles per hour slower than it was in April. Interestingly, he also had a dip on 5/11 and, to a lesser extent, 5/16 before increasing again on 5/22 and 5/27 before beginning the more recent downward slide in velocity. This strikes me as fairly silly. It’s not terrifically surprising that the average fastball over 93 MPH is coming out to be the same speed for each of the time intervals – you’re using speed as your threshold, after all. (I’m not saying using “93 MPH+” as your cutoff will guarantee this result, just that it will make it artificially more likely.) I would think that using some kind of percentile (like the top 5% of fastballs, or the top 1%, or even the maximum) would be much more appropriate.

I don’t have the data handy to do the analysis myself (I second R M’s question), but there’s a post up at the Hardball Times today that has some of the relevant data, and it certainly seems like Johan’s peak fastball in June has been a couple miles per hour slower than it was in April. Interestingly, he also had a dip on 5/11 and, to a lesser extent, 5/16 before increasing again on 5/22 and 5/27 before beginning the more recent downward slide in velocity.

]]> By: R M http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/johans-velocity/#comment-80918 R M Tue, 16 Jun 2009 18:24:23 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=5567#comment-80918 Is there any kind of site that has velocity info like that for all pitchers? Is there any kind of site that has velocity info like that for all pitchers?

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