Comments on: John Smoltz and ERA

By: tom s.

tom s. — Mon, 10 Aug 2009 19:12:42 +0000

somehow this issue got totally skirted in this discussion – perhaps b/c fangraphs doesn’t follow platoon splits.

smoltz v. LHB: .440/.490/.758
smoltz v. RHB: .232/.259/.390

in 101 PAs against LHB, he’s given up 7 walks and 6 HR and managed only 12 Ks.
in 85 PAs against RHB, he’s given up 2 walks and 2 HR and managed 21 Ks.

both the actual results and the peripherals support a dramatic gulf between his performance against LHB and RHB.

so the answer is, you’re both right. The overall numbers for smoltz are pretty reasonable, because he’s getting 40% of his PAs against RHB who he dominates. The posters are right that smoltz is getting lit up and looking ridiculous – almost exclusively against LHB.

The disparity between the stathead analysis and the eyeball analysis does not show that FIP is broken. It’s that FIP isn’t being used to examine a serious platoon split in a pitcher’s performance.

if the good people at fangraphs would try to get platoon splits into the basic and advanced stats, and while I ask for the moon, into the pitch value stats, i bet we’d see some VERY interesting stuff about John Smoltz.

By: Michael

Michael — Mon, 10 Aug 2009 01:21:05 +0000

The Sox apparently don’t want to pay him his salary per day in the Major League roster. Or at least that’s what I heard from ESPN, not always the best of sources.

By: Dave B. Wagner

Dave B. Wagner — Sun, 09 Aug 2009 20:24:54 +0000

Why should they? He only had a single (albeit disastrous) start between the posting of this article and his DFA. Nothing much changed other than the fact that Boston gave up on him.

By: Ed Nelson

Ed Nelson — Sun, 09 Aug 2009 04:39:52 +0000

Seriously! Stats are great, but you can’t ignore what you see when you watch a guy pitch, and Smoltz was simply incapable of locating his pitches over the course of a full game.

Now, I can’t believe they DFA’d him. It must be an issue with his contract because as much as anyone could see he’s done as a starter, anyone could also see that he has more than enough left in the tank to be a very good situational reliever. I assumed that he would take Masterson’s place in the bullpen?!

As far as this organizational depth… True, there is a ton of pitching. However, besides Lester and Beckett, is there really anyone in the organization that you would completely trust to start game 3? Personally, I would rather have Joba than Clay in that game. Red Sox nation should be very, very nervous right now.

By: steve

steve — Sun, 09 Aug 2009 03:06:51 +0000

b-b-but his FIP!!!

By: steve

steve — Sun, 09 Aug 2009 03:04:04 +0000

LOL. the arrogance of accepting FIP with 100% certainty never ceases to amaze me.

Smoltz was throwing f’ing BATTING PRACTICE. dude is done. cooked. don’t need FIP to tell me that.

By: Joel

Joel — Sun, 09 Aug 2009 02:44:33 +0000

I’m wondering why people are still trumpeting the “amazing pitching depth” line this far into the season when most of said depth is either injured or ineffective and their next starters in line after Smoltz are a mid-range prospect in AAA who’s shown troubling trends in his peripherals and a guy who was just in AA ball a few weeks ago and who demonstrated a lack of control and an ability to hang breaking pitches in hsi first major league game. Not to mention the fact that their current 3-4 starters have been mediocre at best to this point.

It’s August now, not March/April, and everything I’ve seen indicates that the Red Sox have some very real current problems in their rotation after Josh Beckett and Jon Lester. Their incredible depth no longer exists.

By: Tripon

Tripon — Sun, 09 Aug 2009 02:32:22 +0000

So is Fangraphs going to admit it was wrong about this particular pitcher?

By: Andrew

Andrew — Sat, 08 Aug 2009 22:13:04 +0000

John Smoltz does not look like Ricky Nolasco. Nolasco wasn’t missing with every pitch and getting destroyed by lefties. He was legitimately a pitcher plagued by bad luck and every single starter with a good FIP who’s getting shelled != Nolasco.

I can’t think of any pitcher who’s really “come back” from shoulder surgery. It’s an injury that really screws up your mechanics and requires a lot of work to start pitching again properly.

I’m curious if there’s been someone who’s been dominant, went down with a serious shoulder injury, and then returned to dominant form.

By: Dim

Dim — Sat, 08 Aug 2009 18:26:34 +0000

Agreed with Joe. Smoltz clearly has *something* left, but he can’t yet pitch effectively, and IMO that’s not luck so much as getting used to what he can and can’t do post-surgery. I think a 40-something pitcher with a brand new shoulder is unique enough context to say that the in this case the peripherals don’t tell the whole story, without rejecting their general usefulness.