Jurickson Profar: The Next Rangers Star?
In three years scouting prospects, the instances in which a highly touted prospect is even better than advertised are few and far between. In the case of Texas Rangers prospect Jurickson Profar, I arrived in Greenville expecting to see a talented, but maybe not elite shortstop prospect and left with a firm belief Profar was the best true shortstop prospect in all of baseball.
As a person who’s much more conservative in my approach to scouting than political leanings, the terms “elite”, “franchise”, “all-star”, “gold glove” rarely find their way into my scouting reports. In actuality, most critiques thrown my way involve my being too critical. In the case of Jurickson Profar, I’ve scoured my notes and video to identify problem areas in his all-around game, but I simply can’t find any. At present, the young shortstop is as complete a position prospect as one could hope to find at any level of the minor leagues.
Video after the Jump
From a physical standpoint, one could not find a better body type than Profar’s when considering a shortstop prospect. Yes, Profar is lean, but he has the frame of a player who could gain an additional 20 pounds or so while maintaining his agility. With teen shortstop prospects, I always look for lower half development, or lack thereof when projecting a a player’s ability to remain at the position long term. With Profar, no red flags are apparent which would lead me to believe a move off of the position just isn’t in the cards.
Additionally, his present strength in relation to his frame is excellent and allows for explosive movements both offensively and defensively. With additional strength gained through physical maturity and a solid training regimen, he should become even stronger.
Offensively, Profar’s swing is a little “loose” in terms of extra movement pre-swing and loss of body control at times. The term “swinging out of his shoes” comes to mind on occasion and Profar should become “quieter” in the batter’s box with time. When compared to other Latin American prospects his age, the refinement needed for Profar to iron out the kinks is a fraction of what most other hitters would need. Additionally, a scouting contact put it best when he said, “I’d rather calm a max effort swing than ask a more polished hitter to swing harder. It’s easier to take away a little than ask for explosion that’s not there.”
And explosion is definitely present in Profar’s swing – especially in his wrists. With present plus bat speed bordering on elite, the young shortstop is able to generate significantly more power than one would assume given his wiry frame and perceived lack of strength. In game action, I witnessed him turn on an inside fastball for a line drive rocket foul which smacked the brick condominiums situated behind Greenville’s version of the green monster. Had the ball been a fly ball with a downward trajectory when bounding off of the building, I would have paid it only some mind. However, this particular batted ball was crushed and still rising at the time of impact.
Additionally, Profar flashed power from both sides of the plate during batting practice hitting multiple balls out of the park to left-centerfield from the right side, and using the “Green Monster” as target practice from the left side. In the same hitting group as former first round pick Jake Skole, the crack off of Profar’s bat was significantly louder than the bigger-bodied Skole. At one point, I asked a friend who took the road trip with me who was asking, “what’s so impressive about this” to just “shut up and listen”. A couple of swings was all that was necessary for him to understand the difference between so-so and special.
On defense, Profar wasn’t challenged in game action, but showed picturesque fluidity and movement in batting practice and pre-game infield. Additionally, Profar’s arm is at least well-above average, if not plus for the position allowing him to pivot off his back foot and fire lasers across the infield. The one area which may cause him to fall just short of “gold glove potential” at shortstop is his slightly above average foot speed, but Profar’s feel for the game and baseball IQ are present in all areas should only improve with additional time on the infield. If the foot speed winds up limiting his range a touch, his instincts and ability to position himself may make up the difference and then some.
On the basepaths, Profar’s in game speed is just a touch above average and may regress further with time leaving him with average foot speed at physical maturity. This is really the only area which doesn’t project as a long term strength. Once again, a high baseball IQ should allow him to maximize the speed he does have and settle in as a double-digit stolen base threat in his prime.
When projecting Profar in his prime, I can’t help but see him as a better version of White Sox shortstop Alexei Ramirez. With Ramirez producing back-to-back 4+ WAR seasons, the sky is really the limit for Jurickson Profar considering his on base skills should be significantly improved over Ramirez. Additionally, Ramirez’ power numbers look more impressive on paper than in reality as his huge plate appearance totals add counting numbers. Profar should produce higher wOBA totals prior to his prime years with room for more. This leaves Profar a 5-6 WAR player for me leaving him a top-4 shortstop in all of baseball.
For me, the conservative approach would be to label Jurickson Profar an above average regular with multiple all-star seasons. A more aggressive assessment would leave the Rangers shortstop a franchise player worthy of building an organization around. If not for Nationals phenom Bryce Harper, Jurickson Profar would rank as the best prospect I scouted this season.
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At least this meddling franchise has something they can look forward to. Oh, wait…
I seriously think we’re looking at the next MLB dynasty here. They’ve already got back-to-back WS appearances, and they’ve got a top-5 farm system supplementing what’s obviously already a great team. Throw in the 4-team division (and yeah, that includes the Astros if they move), and you’ve got an odds-on championship favorite for many of the next eight years, I’d think. On paper, anyway.
Profar is a beast.
Odds on championship favorite for many of the next eight years? This isn’t basketball. Baseball changes fast. The Rangers are very well set up for continued success, but let’s not go crazy.
If CJ Wilson leaves and Alexei Ogando’s first half of the season was aberrant they probably aren’t going to be a playoff team next year. But they have a good core ML core, a good farm system and ownership with money.
If they had better starting pitching, I’d probably agree with you. However, I’m not sure that staff has the longevity to excel over a number of seasons.
Add in their payroll situation and it’s a good time to be a Rangers fan.
His right handed swing reminds me a lot of Alfonso Soriano. Not meant as an insult either.
if Alfonso Soriano were an adequate SS, we will see a surefire HOFer in him, instead of an aging albatross.
or even if he stuck at 2B.
I’ve thought that about his swing from the first time I saw it. My first impression was that he better add some shoulder/forearm strength to give him some pop from the right side.
His left hand swing is a thing of beauty.
The pop from the right side is just fine. I saw enough the swing described in the piece to project above average power from the shortstop position. Profar’s wrists are dynamite.
I can see some Soriano in the swing too, but they are entirely different players. Soriano had some crazy tools, but was always rough around the edges. Profar will have much more polish to his game with a more well-rounded skill set.
Would that 20-lbs of projectable strength/muscle only negate the 20-lbs around his neck?
You know, it might be the reason for his not having plus speed.
He seems to drift forward a little more than I’d like from the right side, it’s hard to get a look at the left side but it doesn’t look like that happens. That will get ironed out with time.
I believe so. In looking at this swing, it’s all small tweaks and adjustments.
Thank you! Exactly what I was thinking. To me he doesn’t really look like he’s drifting forward from the left side, but you’re right most of the camera angles aren’t great.
So not only will they be able to improve at SS, the also get to trade Andrus for pitching or whatever. Dang.
As Adam D. points out below, this is an organization whose present starting SS was called up at an extremely young age. Further, if you are the young (and therefore affordable, for now, at least) starting SS for the AL’s World Series rep for the previous two seasons and coming off a World Series where you got a big “clutch hit,” ran the bases extremely well, and made some outstanding plays in the field, well, your trade value is incredibly high, particularly when you look around at who many teams are forced to play at the SS position.
Could Texas auction Andrus off to the highest bidder for as much quality pitching (presumably one ML #2-#3 starter and at least one very good if not great prospect) as possible, promote Jurickson Profar to the majors, and still compete for a world championship? I think so. Should they? Yes, I think so; again, Andrus’ trade value is sky high this offseason and I will be surprised if it ever gets higher. I will be surprised if Andrus’ bat develops into a Silver Slugger-caliber bat and I will be even more surprised if he has this kind of range in a year or two. Assuming this #2-#3 starter is much younger (and, again, cheaper) than C.J. Wilson will be after his huge payday this offseason, here is an excellent way to control costs, as well, obviously.
What exactly are the Rangers’ alternatives to this strategy? I suppose they can plan on trading an older and more expensive Andrus in a year or two (i.e., when Profar is deemed ready), but you get less for an older and more expensive Andrus in 2012 or 2013 then you would get for him this offseason. They could also move Andrus to another position–CF?–but his so-so bat wouldn’t play nearly as well at another position. I say sell high!
As far as Texas being on the verge of a multiyear “dynasty”: we have seen far too often in pro sports where a team on the verge of a championship seems to be well on its way to a ridiculous run but it very rarely works out that way. This is an awfully well-managed team here, with what appears to be a growing fan base and a ton of cash on its way via its cable TV contract, so there’s that.
Would it be more beneficial to move Profar or Elvis to center? Coming off a 4 win season and being one of the most popular players in the organization, I think trading Elvis could bring some significant backlash. Especially, since he is so young and valuable. A lot can go wrong for a prospect, and imagine how much of a bummer it would be for the Rangers to lose a really good shortstop and not have this next one work out.
So speaking of moving Andrus, what’s this kid’s ETA ?
I found this statement a bit hyperbolic, but within reason for an enthusiastic scout:
“Had the ball been a fly ball with a downward trajectory when bounding off of the pillar, I would have paid it only some mind. However, this particular batted ball was crushed and still rising at the time of impact.”
Robert Adair does not find it within reason.
well, the kid is only, what, 18? Elvis got called up at age 20 (if I recall correctly), and even that was whispered as being very young. Obviously he had a few growing pains that first year, year-and-a-half, but Profar need not go through that at the majors with Elvis in front of him, so best guess is at least 3 more years before this kid sees the show.
The other side of the equation is Elvis’ contract situation. He’s arbitration eligible for the first time this offseason, but if history is any indicator (mostly, Ian Kinsler), the Rangers will try to wrap him up with a 4 – 5 year contract. This sets up nicely, I think, for Profar who can develop further in the minors until Elvis’ contract comes close to expiring (and a much rumored move to the Yankees to replace Jeter) and he can be used as trade bait for more pitching and the Rangers still have Profar waiting in the wings to take over.
Just my best guess, though, so don’t think I’m an expert or anything :)
Whatever happens, Profar will give them flexibility. Profar has plenty of polish for his age and is improving rapidly. Would I be shocked to see him end 2012 in double-A and push for a september 2013 call up? Not at all.
We all look for different things. The fly ball I described first is a well hit ball, but not awe inspiring. A line drive foul out of the park which is still rising will travel much further. It was awe inspiring.
It’s just that’s its one of those cliches about a laser beam HR, that it was still rising when it landed in the seats.
Would have to ask Robert Adair, but it seems to a baseball would have close to a third of its total flight from the top of its trajectory. A laser beam line drive hitting the wall near peak trajectory would be destined to travel at least 450 feet. Possible, but kind of crazy.
Well, the Greenville Monster is about 310 directly down the line. This ball struck the brick in foul territory so I’d estimate 300 or so feet. I actually made a mistake in referring to it as a pillar and will be editing the piece a touch. The brick was actually the condominium’s behind the stadium.
Defense aside, how would you compare Profar’s hitting ceiling to Starlin Castro’s?
You know what, I was exchanging messages with Jeff Zimmerman earlier today and my conservative projection for Profar in his prime would work out to a .345 wOBA equaling what Yunell Escobar and Asdrubal Cabrera posted this season.
As for comping to Castro, Profar may post similar triple slash lines with a better on base percentage. If I’m not ignoring defense, Profar winds up being more valuable because he projects as a plus defender at SS. I see Castro growing out of SS sooner rather than later with him shifting to 2B or 3B eventually.
Interesting that he’s a natural righthanded hitter who started switch hitting only recently, and his swings are quite different. I couldn’t tell specifically where until the live game section that he rotates on his right heel from the left side, but goes flat footed or even more on the toe of his left foot from the right side. He rolls over on his heel occasionally from the right side, but it looks like even on balls that he’s not hooking the left foot stays planted. It seems that he stays back a little better that way, but he doesn’t have the same explosion.
Maybe this is just confirmation bias, because my first look at him was the Futures Game. That was one of the most explosive lefthanded swings I saw from anybody all year, including major leaguers. From your description of him offensively and based on that one AB where he went for a triple, I’d compare him more to Pedroia, at least from the left side. Like what the scout said about it being better to tone a guy down, but I’m not sure the will need to do much. Looks like he has enough ability to be that aggressive. Actually, don’t you almost have to assume that based on how great his lefthanded swing is in such a short period of time?
You know Paul, you just pointed out a great example of how a prospects back story helps to build projection. His ability to adapt so quickly on offense having not hit much really raises his ceiling.
It’s the same reason why I was so enamored with Anthony Gose who had limited baseball experience in his background.
Not to be gratuitous, but you pointed out why I think you’re a great addition to the site. Everybody else apparently thought Texas was crazy to let him play SS since he was a very good pitcher. And in a way you can see what they were thinking, since for me if he’s just a righthanded hitter, he’s probably a guy who projects more as an average regular. Still a very good prospect. But then you take the next step to the Rangers thinking he should switch hit, probably just to take advantage of his speed, and he turns into a superduperprospect. There is just no way in hell anybody in that org. thought he would be able to pick it up that quickly. The same thing happened with Carlos Beltran. Sure, the Royals making him into a switch hitter was a good idea, but nobody could have seen him picking it up like he did within one year and winning ROY basically the next year after that.
Love stories like this, Jose Altuve, etc., and glad you’re here to tell them.
Thanks Paul. I appreciate the complement and thoroughly enjoy communicating with readers.
Paul, I’m with you on the lefty swing at the Futures Game. That was an ah ha! moment similar to the year before when Trout and Hosmer showed their stuff, or 2009 AFL games where a teenaged Starlin Castro’s elite contact tool was immediately self-evident.
Like Alexei, only BETTER? BLASPHEMY!!
Is his speed really on above-average. I’ve seen him play a couple times and it really seemed like once he got going he could put ground behind him pretty well. His triple in the futures game comes to mind. Obviously its difficult to judge on television but he looked like speed was definitely not an issue for him.
Damn I regret missing the opportunity to watch him when he was in short-season A ball. I hope he turns out to be a bust.
Signed, Mariners fan
But you have Nick Franklin!
How is Profar defensively in comparison to Andrus at the same age?
From reports it seems Andrus is more athletically gifted, while Profar is perhaps fundamentally better, would this be true?
I think the Rangers end up keeping Andrus and Profar, with Kinsler eventually making way. Andrus will get better as a hitter. He really started hitting with more power towards the end of the season.
As for the Rangers dynasty talks, all they need is a TORP ace. I know most teams would say that, but Texas genuinely has their mid and bottom of the rotation basically down pat for a long time with the likes of Holland, Harrison, Ogando and others like potentially Feliz and Perez coming up. If they can somehow manage to snag a TORP, whether that be Yu Darvish this offseason, or for someone in a trade, they will really be setup for a long time at the top.
All great points Jason. If I had an award to give for “Post I Can’t Argue With”, you’d get it.
I may be biased as a Rangers fan, but I see potential with Holland. That WS start isn’t the first such start he’s had this year, just look how many shutouts he’s had. Not next year, although I think he’ll be good, but maybe three years down the road.
It’s possible. Have to appreciate the results from this season and the fact he’s still awfully young.
He still looks very raw. He short arms everything, and lunges forward on most of the game pitches in the video. It’ll be interesting to see what his learning curve is like when he takes a step towards the more advanced levels this year. It’s hard to not be excited about a K% – BB% from a guy his age.
Raw as compared to what? Compared to an 18-year old prospect just off the Perfect Game circuit? Absolutely, but their ceilings may be lower because of it. Profar is much more polished than the comparable International Free Agent. It’s important to view him a bit from that perspective.
how does Profar’s defense compare to Iglesias’s? And what kind of UZR do you think Profar and Iglesias can put up in their prime?
Not sure if anybody matches Iglesias, but if Iglesias is the “A+” defender compared to Profar’s “A-”, Profar’s hitting ability makes him significantly more valuable to me.
While I love a good scouting report (which this definitely was), I think diving into the numbers in worth while in this case.
At 18 years old, Profar had essentially a 1:1 K:BB ratio, and kept his strikeout rate at a very impressive 12%. As if an 18 year old SS with great plate discipline wasn’t enough, Profar also maintained an ISO above .200, and showed great contact rates from both sides of the plate.
I don’t have an exhaustive data base to go by, but I would say that Profar’s particular combination of stats puts him in the elite category for his age. To throw in a comparison, Albert Pujols had a 1:1 K:BB ratio (9%/9%) and a .241 ISO as a 20 year old at A-ball. A more contemporary comparison would be Mike Trout, who posted a similar K:BB ratio, and a .160 ISO as an 18 year old at A ball.
I would venture to guess that if we looked back at the most talented switch-hitters of the last few decades and compared their first full years in pro ball to that of Profar’s, we would find that he is keeping company with not only All-Star caliber players, but HOF players.
I’m not arguing that Profar is a sure-thing HOFer, I’m just saying that along with a glowing scouting report from a self-confessed critical analyst, the numbers back up the hype.
That is all.
Good points Adam G. You touched on two extremely important things:
1. The rates show polish at a time when he’s a visibly unpolished product. For me, that means his natural ability and instinct is driving the strong numbers. What happens when he actually figured it out from a baseball standpoint?
2. I really need to throw your idea about switch hitters and rates out to a stat guy or take that project on myself. It would be a great follow up and I’m extremely interested in general rules and historical context over exceptions.
I realize that Elvis Andrus can hit the ball with more authority than he does–and I believe that he WILL as he matures physically. But the one thing people are forgetting about Elvis is that prior to this past season he was GREAT hitting with runners in scoring position. In 2010 he’d line singles into the outfield whenever there were ducks on the pond. Looking at this kid’s tools, I’m inclined to agree that Jurickson Profar is a potential star. But If I was Nolan Ryan I’d trade Ian Kinsler before I traded Elvis Andrus. That’s because as gifted as Ian is, he’s still as impulsive as ever at the plate. Look how poorly he hits when there are runners in scoring position. Look how poorly he hits on the road (.214 this past season). Notice how often he uppercuts inside pitches around his neck which he pops up or hits weak fly balls on. Yes, he jerks 25 or so of them out of the park–32 this past year, but there is NO reason why Ian shouldn’t be hitting AT LEAST .280 with the same (or more) production considering his innate talent.
Frankly, I think Ian has more natural ability than Dustin Pedroia (who also uppercuts pitches up around the letters, but Dustin HITS those pitches a lot more often than Ian does…ESPECIALLY when Boston has RISP. ) And Ian also tends to have unforgivable lapses on the base paths–making mistakes that can only be ascribed to a lack of focus or stupidity in some instances.. Overall though, just ask Ozzie Guillen what he thinks about Dustin compared to how he thinks about Ian…
Yes, I envision Profar at either second or short–probably second, with Elvis continuing to grow and improve at shortstop while regaining his proficiency hitting with runners in scoring position as in years past. The Rangers should–if it’s feasible–trade Ian Kinsler for a much needed starting pitcher and a pitching prospect. Because the way their starting staff is currently constituted, Nolan Ryan (and Ron Washington) will white-knuckle their way through the first five innings of any game that the offense doesn’t score seven runs in…
Clifford
Santa Monica
Hey Clifford,
I can definitely see this scenario playing out. At Kinsler’s age, he will be on the downside of his prime when Profar is ready.